India's diplomatic ambitions tested as Trump insists on Kashmir deal

India and Pakistan have pulled back from the brink of all-out war, with encouragement from the United States, but New Delhi's ambitions to become a global diplomatic power are now facing a crucial test after US President Donald Trump offered to mediate in the Kashmir dispute, analysts said.

India's rapid rise as the world's fifth-largest economy has boosted its confidence and influence on the international stage, where it has played a significant role in resolving regional crises such as Sri Lanka's economic collapse and the Myanmar earthquake.

However, the conflict with Pakistan over Kashmir, which has escalated in recent days with exchanges of missiles, drones and air strikes that have killed at least 66 people, touches on a sensitive issue in Indian politics, writes Reuters in the article "India's diplomatic ambitions tested as Trump insists on Kashmir deal".

How India balances accommodating Trump on issues like trade and asserting its own interests in the Kashmir conflict will largely depend on domestic politics and could determine the future of the conflict in the region.

"India... is probably not willing to engage in broader talks (that a ceasefire implies). Maintaining that ceasefire will be challenging," said Michael Kugelman, a Washington-based South Asia analyst.

In a sign of how fragile the ceasefire remains, the two governments accused each other of serious violations on Saturday night.

Kugelman stated that the ceasefire was "hastily put together" when tensions were at their peak.

Trump said on Sunday that "after a ceasefire, we will significantly increase trade with these two great nations."

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, on the other hand, has not spoken publicly about the conflict since it began.

India considers Kashmir an integral part of its territory and is not subject to negotiations, least of all third-party mediation. Both India and Pakistan administer parts of the Himalayan region, claim the entire territory, and have fought two wars and numerous other conflicts over what India says is a Pakistan-backed insurgency. Pakistan denies supporting the insurgency.

"By agreeing to suspend military operations after just three days, under pressure from the US, India is actually drawing international attention to the Kashmir dispute, rather than the cross-border terrorism from Pakistan that caused the crisis," Brahma Chelani, an Indian defence expert, told Reuters.

For decades after the two countries separated in 1947, the West viewed India and Pakistan through the same prism, as the neighbors regularly fought wars over Kashmir. That has changed in recent years, thanks in part to India's economic rise, while Pakistan has lagged behind with an economy less than a tenth of India's.

But Trump's proposal to mediate in resolving the Kashmir issue, along with US Secretary of State Mark Rubio's statement that India and Pakistan would begin broader talks on neutral ground, angered many Indians.

Pakistan has repeatedly thanked Trump for his offer to mediate on Kashmir, while India has not acknowledged any third party role in achieving the ceasefire, claiming the two sides reached an agreement on their own.

Analysts and opposition parties in India are already questioning whether New Delhi achieved its strategic goals by launching missiles into Pakistan last Wednesday in retaliation for an attack last month on tourists in Kashmir that killed 26 people. India has blamed Pakistan for the attack - a charge Islamabad has denied, according to Reuters.

By launching missiles deep into Pakistani territory, Modi has shown a greater willingness to take risks than his predecessors. But the sudden ceasefire has exposed him to rare criticism in India.

Svachan Dasgupta, a former lawmaker from Modi's nationalist BJP party, said the ceasefire was not well received in India partly because "Trump suddenly appeared out of nowhere and pronounced his judgment."

The main opposition party, Congress, also joined in, demanding an explanation from the government regarding the "ceasefire announcement from Washington".

"Have we opened the door to third-party mediation?" asked Congress spokesperson Jairam Ramesh.

Although the fighting has stopped, a number of points of contention remain that will test India's resolve and perhaps lead it to take a tougher stance.

The most important issue for Pakistan, diplomats and officials there said, will be the Indus Waters Treaty, which India suspended last month and which is vital to many of Pakistan's farms and hydroelectric power plants.

"Pakistan would not agree to a ceasefire without American guarantees of broader dialogue," said Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, former foreign minister and current chairman of the Pakistan People's Party, which supports the government.

Muid Yousuf, Pakistan's former national security adviser, said a broad agreement was needed to break the cycle of constant tension over Kashmir.

"Because the basic problems remain and every six months, a year, two or three, something similar happens, and we find ourselves on the brink of war in a nuclear environment again," he said.