Kiev teaches a lesson about the future of warfare

Massive and cheap drone attacks on Russian targets are opening a new chapter in military conflicts - what Ukraine does today may become a global practice tomorrow

37998 views 284 reactions 68 comment(s)
Ukrainian soldiers prepare a "Vampire" combat drone to deliver ammunition and food, Photo: Reuters
Ukrainian soldiers prepare a "Vampire" combat drone to deliver ammunition and food, Photo: Reuters
Disclaimer: The translations are mostly done through AI translator and might not be 100% accurate.

Satellite images of a Russian air base, taken shortly after Ukraine carried out a drone attack deep inside Russian territory over the weekend, show that billions of dollars worth of Russian strategic aircraft have been destroyed and damaged.

According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, a total of 117 suicide drones were used in Sunday's attack, which hit Russian air bases as far away as Irkutsk in eastern Siberia. Each drone costs about $400 to produce, according to Bloomberg. According to Ukrainian calculations, the operation could be one of the most effective in the history of warfare - measured by the ratio of money invested to the effect achieved.

Satellite image after Ukrainian attack on Russian base in Irkutsk
Satellite image after Ukrainian attack on Russian base in Irkutskphoto: REUTERS

According to the UK’s Royal United Services Institute, drones were responsible for 2025 to 60 percent of damage and destruction to Russian military equipment in the war by early 70. The Russian military has developed its own combat drones and has relied on its traditionally strong electronic warfare capabilities to improve its counter-drone technology. However, Ukrainian drones, known for their high adaptability, continue to find and exploit weaknesses and loopholes in Russian defenses.

In a sense, Ukraine's attack on Sunday represents the culmination of what the world has witnessed since Russia launched a full-scale invasion in February 2022. Although seemingly outnumbered by the vastly larger Russian military, Ukraine, with the help of drones and other improvised equipment, managed to destroy tanks, large warships, bombers, and other large systems from previous generations.

In this context, Kiev's latest operation confirms the continuation of this strategy. Ukraine's security service SBU announced yesterday that it had struck an underwater road-rail bridge connecting Russia and the Crimean peninsula with explosives. The statement, as reported by Reuters, states that 1.100 kilograms of explosives were used, which were detonated early in the morning and damaged the underwater pillars of the bridge - once a key supply line for Russian forces in Ukraine. Russian military bloggers claim that the attack was not successful and speculate that it was carried out by a Ukrainian naval drone.

Military planners and many commentators have long ignored the importance of Ukraine's defensive tactics, but the latest attacks clearly show that major changes are necessary in the way all militaries are organized and trained, Bloomberg estimates.

Military commanders around the world are closely monitoring the situation. The US Pentagon, which has led the development of sophisticated and expensive drones produced by major arms manufacturers, is now looking to buy cheaper models designed by startups that can be used on a mass scale, the US agency writes. Taiwan is investing in mass production of drones in anticipation of a possible conflict with China. Israel adapted its Iron Dome air defense system in the Gaza war to respond to the threat from drones - one of its greatest weaknesses. European governments, which are carrying out the most extensive arms buildup since the Cold War, have identified drones and anti-drone systems as an investment priority.

Britain said on Monday it would radically change its approach to defense to respond to threats from Russia, risks from nuclear weapons and cyberattacks, investing in drones and digital warfare rather than relying on a numerically large army to wage modern battles.

Responding to US President Donald Trump's insistence that Europe take greater responsibility for its own security, Prime Minister Keir Starmer has promised the biggest continuous increase in British defense spending since the end of the Cold War. But with limited funding, the government's plan is to make the military more lethal rather than more numerous, drawing on lessons from Ukraine, where drones and technology have changed the face of the front.

British Defense Secretary John Healy said that Britain's adversaries are increasingly operating in alliances and that technology is changing the way war is fought. "Drones are now killing more people than traditional artillery in the war in Ukraine, and whoever is the fastest to introduce new technology into their armed forces will win," he said.

 Healy inspects the Xdown combat drone during a visit to the Land Warfare Center at Warminster Garrison, Wiltshire, Britain
Healy inspects the Xdown combat drone during a visit to the Land Warfare Center at Warminster Garrison, Wiltshire, Britainphoto: REUTERS

In the early stages of the war, Ukraine relied on Turkish “Bayraktar” drones to direct artillery fire at Russian armored units. It has now developed its own drones, the “Leleka” and “Furya,” for this purpose.

Ukrainian company Skyfall has grown into one of the country's largest drone manufacturers. It was founded by three engineers with the goal of developing a "vampire" - a multi-purpose drone for heavy tasks, capable of carrying 15-kilogram bombs or transporting ammunition, food, water and medicine. Russians nicknamed it Baba Yaga, after the evil witch from children's fairy tales, writes "Blumberg".

Skyfall has delivered thousands of these aircraft to the front lines. The company also manufactures the popular Shrike FPV drone, runs an academy to train future engineers, operates drone service centers in cities closer to the front lines, and maintains a 24/XNUMX hotline to help soldiers troubleshoot technical issues with their drones.

The factory can produce more combat drones than the Ukrainian military needs. Heavy models, including the Vampire, can be assembled at a rate of 4.000 per month. Smaller drones, similar to those used by Ukraine over the weekend, can be built much faster - about 4.000 per day, a source told Time magazine.

For now, Ukraine's drones remain inside the country, as the government banned arms exports during the war. However, once the war is over, those bans are expected to be lifted, and Ukrainian drones could appear on the world market in large quantities. Last year, Ukraine produced more than two million combat drones of various types. This year, it is on track to double that number, writes Time.

For the government in Kiev, exporting these systems to foreign markets is a key part of its post-war reconstruction and rearmament plan. One lawmaker estimated last year that selling drones to other countries could bring Ukrainian manufacturers around $20 billion, which could then be reinvested in domestic defense industries.

Ukrainian manufacturers already have orders from several European countries, as well as Egypt, India and Pakistan. “They all know that our drones work because they have been tested in combat,” the source told Time.

Bonus video: