Just hours after Israel's attack on numerous targets in Iran on Friday, the Saudi Foreign Ministry issued a statement.
"The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia condemns in the strongest terms the blatant Israeli aggression against the brotherly Islamic Republic of Iran," the X network said.
This "aggression", it added, undermines Iran's sovereignty and security and constitutes a clear violation of international law.
Saudi Arabia in an unenviable position
Saudi Arabia is in a difficult situation. Israel has been trying for years to normalize relations with Arab states, especially those on the Arabian Peninsula.
This policy led to the so-called Abraham Accords, which redefined relations between Israel and some of the countries in the region. The aim of the agreements was to establish and expand diplomatic, economic, and security relations between Israel and these Arab countries.
In the summer of 2020, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain signed such an agreement.
Saudi Arabia, however, has not yet reached an agreement with Israel. Although the two countries have been in informal consultations for years, Riyadh has so far avoided the impression that, as the guardian of Islam's holy sites, it might distance itself from its traditional solidarity with the Palestinians by moving closer to Israel.
Rapprochement with Iran
This is even more true since October 7, 2023, when the militant Islamist organization Hamas – which Germany, the European Union, the US and some other countries classify as terrorist – attacked Israeli territory, killing around 1.170 people and kidnapping 255 people.
Saudi Arabia, like most Arab and Islamic countries, reacted to the Israeli military response much more critically than most Western countries.
According to a BBC report in November 2024, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman accused Israel of “genocide” in Gaza. However, Saudi Arabia continues to allow Israeli aircraft to fly over the Emirates, which began in 2020.
At the same time, Riyadh has grown significantly closer to Tehran in recent years. After the two countries severed diplomatic relations in 2016, they restored them in March 2023 with the mediation of China.
According to Markus Schneider, a Middle East expert at the Friedrich Ebert Foundation in Beirut, the Gulf states – primarily Saudi Arabia and the Emirates – already had the current scenario in mind.
"In the capitals of the Arabian Peninsula, they are aware that they are being presented as if on a silver platter if a war breaks out between Israel and Iran. Unlike Israel, they are not protected by effective defense systems. This has long caused fear, which is why they have always tried through the US to prevent an escalation on the Israeli side."
Saudi tightrope dance
Saudi Arabia is balancing on October 7, 2023, says Sebastian Zons, an expert on Gulf states at the German think tank Carpo.
"The country advocates de-escalation with all its neighbors. In this regard, it has sought to act as a platform for dialogue in various conflicts and has organized several major summits, including the one on the war in Gaza, in which Iranian representatives have regularly participated. These diplomatic activities are part of the Saudi political model that is based on rapprochement, not confrontation."
That's why an escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel would be the worst possible scenario. "Because Saudi Arabia would then be caught in the middle of the storm, and there is a fear that there could be an attack on national territory, because American troops are also there."
There are also concerns that Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi Islamist militia could resume attacks. Riyadh still vividly remembers the militia's attack on Saudi Aramco oil facilities in September 2019.
Saudi Arabia has been working more determinedly to further develop relations with Iran, says Zons. "The underlying ambition is to move from tactical to strategic rapprochement and expand cooperation in more areas, for example security."
"But Saudi Arabia still doesn't trust Iran. There is a great deal of distrust towards its neighbor, which makes the current situation very difficult for Riyadh to predict," Zons adds.
That's why the choice of words used by the Saudi Foreign Ministry in criticizing the Israeli attack is particularly significant, says Schneider.
"The fact that the Ministry is talking on platform X about attacking 'brotherly' Iran shows how dramatic the situation is. The term 'brother' or 'brotherly' is normally used only for Arab countries. Such a choice of words shows that Saudi Arabia does not want to be perceived as an ally of Israel under any circumstances."
Concerns in Oman and Iraq
Oman, which is on the southern tip of the Arabian Peninsula and has been a mediator in negotiations between Iran and the United States, now sees a threat to the possibility of a diplomatic solution to the dispute over Iran's nuclear program.
According to agency reports, the country criticized the Israeli action, saying that the attack threatens the security and stability of the region. However, negotiations between the US and Iran are expected to resume. But when, no one knows.
There are also concerns in Iraq. The country is home to a number of paramilitary groups linked to Iran, such as Kataib Hezbollah. These Shiite groups are closer to the authorities in Tehran than to those in Baghdad. Through the political wing of these militias, Iranian influence extends all the way to the Iraqi parliament.
"If Tehran now sends them a message that the situation is of critical importance, they could resort to weapons," says Schneider.
"They could attack US forces stationed in Iraq or other US targets. That's why the US evacuated diplomatic personnel days ago. And that shows how unpredictable the situation in the region is right now."
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