The G7 group is meeting in Kananaskis, Canada. For German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, it is the first meeting of this format, and therefore the first major test on the international stage.
In addition to him, the heads of state and government of France, Great Britain, Italy, Japan, Canada and the USA will also participate. Other high-ranking guests are also arriving. What can we expect from the summit?
What are the main topics of the G7 summit?
There are several topics that the seven economic powers will address. For example, the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran is likely to be discussed.
The war against Ukraine and world trade are also on the agenda – issues on which Donald Trump and his European allies have now drifted significantly apart.
To what extent are attacks in the Middle East a focus of the summit?
That depends on developments on the ground. Shortly before leaving for Canada, Chancellor Merz said he expected the Israeli-Iranian conflict to be very high on the agenda. The US and Europeans have assured Israel of their solidarity, but have so far not actively supported its offensive against major military and nuclear facilities in Iran.
That could quickly change when it comes to the US, however. There are fears that the Iranian leadership could also order retaliatory strikes on US bases in the Middle East. In that case, it would be realistic to expect the US itself to strike back – thus moving to a new level of escalation.
This would also be the case if the US were to begin actively militarily assisting Israel in attacks on certain Iranian nuclear facilities, which experts say are deep underground. Trump will likely decide independently which path the US will take in the conflict – that is, without G7 partners.
What can the G7 achieve regarding Ukraine?
The Russia-Ukraine talks initiated by Trump have so far yielded little. The Europeans are therefore keen to convince him that his efforts only stand a chance if pressure on Russia is increased.
For example, they want to further reduce the Russian state's export revenues by reducing the price ceiling for selling Russian oil to countries like India or China, from the current $60 to $45 per barrel. The price cap was introduced in 2022 and includes sanctions against actors involved in exporting Russian oil at higher prices.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will be given the opportunity to once again seek additional support in Canada. He has been invited to a working breakfast with G7 participants on Tuesday morning - as has NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.
Can further escalation of the customs conflict be prevented?
This, along with support for Ukraine, is the second priority issue for Europeans. If no deal is reached by July 9, the new high US tariffs will, as things stand, apply to almost all exports from the European Union to the United States – and the EU would, in turn, respond with tariffs on US imports.
To prevent this, talks between Brussels and Washington have been going on for weeks – and it is unclear whether they will be successful.
Trump sees tariffs not only as a tool to reduce the US trade deficit, but also as a source of revenue to finance tax cuts. So far, the EU has offered the US reciprocal tariff reductions and the removal of so-called non-tariff trade barriers, which include different regulations and standards for cars. In addition, the EU could promise the United States even more purchases of American liquefied natural gas, as well as military equipment.
All eyes on Trump – how will he behave?
Just before the G7 summit, the US president held a huge military parade in Washington to mark the 250th anniversary of the founding of the US military – which coincided with Trump's 79th birthday. It was a display of military might for the world to see. He's flying to Canada with those battle scenes in his luggage.
The Republican has been in power for nearly five months, and in that time he has rapidly undermined democracy and the constitutional system in the U.S. Internationally, he has alienated one partner after another – including his announcement of punitive tariffs.
What are the expectations of the German Chancellor?
In his first meeting with Trump at the White House earlier this month, Friedrich Merz sought to avoid potential points of conflict. He likely wants to continue that course in Kananaskis.
The first conversation with the US president was “harmonious” – as the Merco delegation put it. “Now the next test is: what does it look like in a team situation and how well does the G7 manage to convey that team spirit to the outside world?”
At the same time, for Merz, it is also about establishing himself among Europeans and taking on a true leadership role there. On his first trips – especially those to Kiev and Washington – he gained confidence.
Now a series of important summits follow. After the G7 summit, Merck will attend the NATO summit in The Hague, and then, this month, his first European Union summit in Brussels.
Can we expect far-reaching decisions from the summit?
The G7 heads of state and government will not issue a comprehensive joint final declaration after the summit. The reason: The US under Trump is drastically departing from the G7's previous commitments in areas such as climate protection, development aid and world trade.
The decision not to issue a final declaration may have been influenced by memories of the last G7 summit in Canada in 2018. Trump then spectacularly disrupted the meeting by withdrawing his approval for a final declaration shortly after the summit ended.
This year, only individual statements are planned on migration, critical raw materials, artificial intelligence, quantum technology, forest fires, and foreign influence. Anything more than that – for example, an agreement to increase pressure on Russia along with new sanctions – would be a great success.
What is the G7 group – and how was it created?
The global economic crisis of 1975 gave German Chancellor Helmut Schmidt and French President Valery Giscard d'Estaing the idea of a summit of the largest industrialized countries to find a solution.
The first meeting at the Château de Rambouillet near Paris in November 1975 – almost 50 years ago – brought together the heads of state and government of France, Germany, the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan and Italy. A year later, Canada completed the “Group of Seven” for the next almost three decades.
Russia became a full member in 2002, but the group existed as the G8 only until 2013. The Russian annexation of Crimea led to the 2014 summit in Sochi, Russia, on the Black Sea, being cancelled. Since then, the group has been renamed the G7.
It originally included the seven largest industrial countries in the world. Today, this is no longer the case: Italy and Canada have been pushed out of the top seven by China and India. However, economic strength is no longer considered the most important link between member states.
After Russia's exclusion, shared democratic values provided the cohesion and raison d'être of the G7. However, with the inauguration of US President Trump, the shared framework of values began to waver.
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