Iran's supreme leader, 86-year-old Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has lost top military and security advisers in Israeli airstrikes, leaving major gaps in his inner circle and increasing the risk of strategic mistakes, according to five people familiar with his decision-making process.
One of those sources, who regularly attends meetings with Khamenei, described the risk of misjudgment of Iran on matters of defense and internal stability as "extremely dangerous," Reuters reports.
Several senior military commanders have been killed since Friday, including Khamenei's top advisers from the Revolutionary Guards, Iran's elite military force: Guard commander Hossein Salami, Air Force Chief Amir Ali Hajizadeh, who led Iran's ballistic missile program, and intelligence officer Mohammad Kazemi.
These men were part of Khamenei's inner circle of approximately 15-20 advisers consisting of Guard commanders, clerics and politicians, according to sources that include three people who attend or have attended meetings with the leader on important issues and two close to officials who regularly attend.
The loose group meets as needed, when Khamenei's cabinet calls relevant advisers to gather at his compound in Tehran to discuss an important decision, all the sources said. Reuters reports that its members are known for their unwavering loyalty to him and the ideology of the Islamic Republic.
Khamenei is in a pretty good position to conduct a basic cost-benefit analysis, which actually leads to one question more important than all others: the survival of the regime.
Khamenei, who was imprisoned before the 1979 revolution and wounded in a bomb attack before becoming leader in 1989, is deeply committed to preserving Iran's Islamic system of government and deeply distrustful of the West.
Under Iran's system of government, he has supreme control over the armed forces, the authority to declare war, and can appoint or dismiss high-ranking officials, including military commanders and judges.
Khamenei makes the final decision on important issues, although he values advice, listens carefully to different views and often seeks additional information from his advisers, said a source who attends the meetings.
"There are two things you can say about Khamenei: He is extremely stubborn, but he is also extremely cautious. He is very cautious. That's why he has been in power for so long," said Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute in Washington.
“Khamenei is in a pretty good position to conduct a basic cost-benefit analysis, which actually leads to one issue more important than all others: the survival of the regime.”
Son in the foreground
The focus on survival has been tested repeatedly. Khamenei deployed the Revolutionary Guard and its associated Basij militia to suppress national protests in 1999, 2009, and 2022.
While security forces have so far managed to suppress the protests and re-establish state control, years of Western sanctions have led to a widespread economic crisis, which analysts say could eventually trigger internal unrest.
Reuters points out that the stakes are extremely high for Khamenei - he is faced with an escalation of the war with Israel, which is targeting Iranian nuclear and military facilities and personnel with air strikes, which provokes missile retaliation from Iran.
Five people familiar with Khamenei's decision-making process stressed that other insiders not targeted by Israeli strikes remain important and influential, including top advisers on political, economic and diplomatic matters.
Khamenei appoints such advisors to address problems as they arise, allowing him direct influence over a wide range of institutions, including the military, security, cultural, political and economic sectors, two sources said.
By acting in this way, including through bodies that are formally under the authority of the elected president, Khamenei's cabinet often participates not only in making the most important state decisions, but also in implementing even smaller initiatives, according to informed sources.
According to sources, his son Mojtaba has become increasingly prominent in the process over the past 20 years, building a role that transcends personal, factional and institutional divisions to coordinate activities on specific issues.
Mojtaba, a mid-ranking cleric who some in the establishment believe could succeed his aging father, has established strong ties with the Revolutionary Guard, which gives him additional power in Iran's political and security structures, sources said.
But Asghar Hejazi, deputy for political and security affairs in Khamenei's cabinet, has been involved in making sensitive security decisions and is often described as the most powerful intelligence official in Iran, sources said.
However, Khamenei's chief of staff, Mohammad Golpayeghani, as well as former foreign ministers Ali Akbar Velayati and Kamal Kharazmi, and former parliament speaker Ali Larijani, remain trusted advisors on diplomatic and domestic political issues such as the nuclear dispute.
The loss of the Revolutionary Guard commanders still seriously affects the top of the military structure that Khamenei, since becoming supreme leader in 1989, has placed at the very center of power, relying on it for both internal security and regional strategy, Reuters points out.
Unlike the regular army, which is under the command of the defense ministry and the elected president, the Revolutionary Guards answer directly to Khamenei, providing the best military equipment for its ground, air, and naval units, giving its commanders a key role in the state apparatus.
Facing one of the most dangerous moments in the Islamic Republic's history, Khamenei has been further isolated by the recent loss of other key advisors in the region, as the Iranian "Axis of Resistance" coalition has been hit hard by Israeli strikes.
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, who was personally close to the Iranian leader, was killed in an Israeli airstrike in September last year, and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was overthrown by rebels in December.
Bonus video:
