Russia has sided with Iran in the latest escalation between the Islamic Republic and Israel. After all, last week Iran ratified the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty with Russia, a document that the two countries’ presidents signed earlier this year. Yet despite this deepening alliance, Russia has been hesitant to offer military assistance to its strategic partner. Why is that?
Putin condemns Israel
Since the beginning of the latest Israeli operation in Iran, Vladimir Putin has been actively engaging with world leaders on the issue. Immediately after the Israeli strikes began last Friday, Putin spoke with both the Iranian president and the Israeli prime minister, conveying different messages to each.
According to a statement published on the Kremlin website, the Russian leader expressed condolences to the leadership and people of Iran for the numerous human casualties and stressed that "Russia condemns Israeli actions, which violate the UN Charter and international law."
The next day, Putin once again condemned the Israeli operation in a phone call with US President Donald Trump.
Moscow's "golden" deal with Tehran
It is no surprise that Russia has rebuked Israel for its attack on the Islamic Republic. Iran has long been a close partner of Russia, partly because both countries are under severe Western sanctions. Their relationship has become closer than ever since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Western allies have accused Iran of supplying Russia with military drones, which were eventually used to attack civilian infrastructure in Ukraine. According to media reports, Moscow is believed to have paid for the drones with at least 1,8 tons of gold bullion, worth about $104 million, which was transferred to the Iranian company Sahara Thunder. It is also estimated that Iran has asked Russia for help in its nuclear program.
Moscow would not want to lose such a reliable partner, analysts believe. "The Kremlin is acting according to the old principle from the Koran: 'Fight and wage war, but do not break the rules,'" says Middle East analyst Ruslan Suleymanov. "In other words, Moscow, which has its own interests and is present in the Middle East, would prefer to avoid any uncontrolled chaos in the region," Suleymanov adds.
The Kremlin's chance for progress in Ukraine
On the other hand, experts believe the Kremlin is likely rubbing its hands over the West's distraction from its brutal war against Ukraine. On Tuesday, Russia carried out one of the deadliest attacks on Kiev in recent months, killing 14 people and wounding dozens.
At the same time, G7 leaders focused on resolving the escalation in the Middle East at the summit in Canada. Even a meeting between Volodymyr Zelensky and Donald Trump was canceled after the US president left the summit early.
Ruslan Suleymanov believes that it is in the Kremlin's best interest to distract American and European politicians from what is happening in Ukraine. "In this context, Putin could use the opportunity to launch an offensive or provoke some other kind of problem," the expert says.
Military assistance highly unlikely
Following the launch of the Israeli military operation in Iran, the Iranian parliament ratified the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty with Russia. Despite its ambitious title, the treaty does not establish a mutual defense pact and does not oblige the parties to provide military assistance to each other in the event of an attack. Instead, it merely stipulates that the signatories refrain from aiding the other party's opponents.
Middle East analyst Mariana Belenkaya, who left Russia after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine and now lives in Israel, believes it is highly unlikely that Moscow will offer Iran any direct military support, at least not officially and publicly. "There is no need for that, especially since Moscow is trying to restore or improve relations with Washington - although some behind-the-scenes involvement cannot be completely ruled out," Belenkaya believes.
Russia as a mediator between the US and Iran
According to Belenkaya, Vladimir Putin is being sincere when it comes to recent public offers to act as a mediator between Iran and its adversaries. According to her, last year Putin reportedly advised Khamenei to return to the negotiating table. In a recent interview with the American ABC News, Donald Trump said he was open to Russian mediation in the conflict.
Russia, as a mediator, probably cannot put pressure on Iran the way the US did, but it can serve as a channel for communication, believes Mariana Belenkaya.
During indirect negotiations between the United States and Iran in April, Russia was indeed expected to play a significant role in the event of a nuclear deal with Iran.
The British daily The Guardian reported that Moscow was being considered as a potential destination for Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium, and could serve as an impartial arbiter in the event of any breach of the deal. The deal suggested that Russia would return Iran's highly enriched uranium back to the country if the US violated the agreement.
If such an agreement were reached, the current guarantors of the 2015 agreement, Germany, France and the United Kingdom, would lose their roles.
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