Why the Strait of Hormuz is crucial to the world's oil supply

The Strait of Hormuz is considered the world's most important oil shipping route. Hostilities between Iran and Israel have raised fears that shipping traffic and the flow of crude oil could slow down.

12998 views 6 comment(s)
Photo: Shutterstock
Photo: Shutterstock
Disclaimer: The translations are mostly done through AI translator and might not be 100% accurate.

The Strait of Hormuz is a key sea passage located between Oman and Iran, connecting the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) describes it as "the world's most important bottleneck for oil transit".

At its narrowest point, the strait is only 33 kilometers wide, while the shipping lane is only two kilometers wide in each direction, making it crowded and dangerous.

Large quantities of crude oil, extracted by OPEC member countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait and Iraq from oil fields across the Persian Gulf, pass through this strait and are distributed around the world.

According to data from energy and transportation market analysis consultancy Vortexa, an estimated 20 million barrels of crude oil, condensate and fuel pass through this route daily. Qatar, one of the world's largest producers of liquefied natural gas (LNG), relies heavily on the strait for its LNG exports.

What is the current situation in the strait?

The conflict between Israel and Iran has once again drawn attention to security in this sea passage.

Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz to shipping in the past in response to Western pressure, but there have been no major attacks on commercial shipping in the region since the conflict began.

However, ship owners are increasingly cautious, some have increased security measures, while others have canceled routes through that section, the AP agency reported.

Electronic jamming of commercial ships' navigation systems has increased sharply in recent days around the strait and the wider Persian Gulf, maritime sources told Reuters, affecting vessels passing through the region.

With no end in sight to the conflict, markets remain tense. Any blockade of the straits or disruption to oil flows could cause crude prices to spike and severely hit energy importers, particularly in Asia.

Meanwhile, shipping prices for tankers carrying crude and refined oil from the region have risen sharply in recent days. The cost of transporting fuel from the Middle East to East Asia rose by almost 20 percent in the three days ending Monday, Bloomberg reported, citing data from the Baltic Exchange. Prices to East Africa, meanwhile, have jumped more than 40 percent.

Who will be most affected in the event of a supply disruption?

According to EIA estimates, as much as 82 percent of crude oil and other fuels passing through the Strait of Hormuz go to Asian consumers.

China, India, Japan and South Korea are the main destinations: almost 70 percent of the total flow of crude oil and condensate passing through the strait.

Therefore, it is the Asian markets that would be most affected in the event of a supply disruption.

How would closing the strait affect Iran and the Gulf states?

If Iran takes steps to close the Strait of Hormuz, it could trigger military intervention by the US. The US Navy's Fifth Fleet, which is based in nearby Bahrain, is tasked with protecting commercial shipping in the region.

Any attempt by Iran to disrupt the flow of oil through the strait could jeopardize Tehran's relations with Gulf Arab states, such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE – countries with which Iran has been carefully building better relations in recent years.

Gulf countries have so far criticized Israel for attacking Iran, but if Iranian actions disrupt their oil exports, they could be forced to turn against Iran.

In addition, Tehran itself depends on the Strait of Hormuz to export its oil to customers, making the closure counterproductive, experts say.

"Closing the Strait of Hormuz would be counterproductive for Iran's relations with its sole oil buyer - China. Iran's economy depends heavily on the free passage of goods and ships through this sea passage, as its oil exports are carried out entirely by sea," Reuters quoted JP Morgan analysts Natasha Kaneva, Pratik Kedia and Lyuba Savinova as saying.

Are there alternatives to the Strait?

Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been seeking alternative routes to bypass the strait in recent years. Both countries have established infrastructure that allows them to transport some of their oil through other routes.

For example, Saudi Arabia operates the East-West pipeline, with a capacity of five million barrels per day, while the UAE has a pipeline connecting its onshore oil fields to the export port of Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman coast.

The EIA estimates that in the event of a disruption to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, about 2,6 million barrels of crude oil per day could be transported via alternative routes.

Bonus video: