Israel's sweeping campaign of airstrikes is aimed at more than just destroying Iran's nuclear centrifuges and missile capabilities. It seeks to undermine the foundations of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's rule and bring it to the brink of collapse, Israeli, Western and regional officials say.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants Iran to be weakened enough to be forced to make substantial concessions - to permanently abandon uranium enrichment, its ballistic missile program and its support for militant groups across the region, sources told Reuters.
He also wants to cripple Khamenei's government. The campaign is aimed at "depleting the regime's capacity to project power and maintain internal cohesion," said one senior regional official.
Iran's Islamic government is facing an existential crisis not seen since the 1979 Revolution; not even the brutal 1980-1988 war with Iraq posed such a direct threat to clerical rule. Israel, which has the most advanced military in the Middle East, can launch attacks anywhere in Iran using drones and advanced F-35 fighter jets, assassinations by Mossad agents and cyber warfare, according to Reuters.
Israel has expanded its list of targets in recent days to include state institutions such as the police and the headquarters of state television in Tehran. Netanyahu's government is planning at least two weeks of intensive air strikes, although the pace will depend on how long it takes to destroy Iran's missile stockpiles and their launch capabilities, Reuters reported, citing four government and diplomatic sources.
Dennis Ross, a former Middle East envoy and advisor to several US administrations, believes Iran is feeling the pressure and could be moving closer to the negotiating table after the strikes that eliminated much of Khamenei's inner circle, damaged nuclear infrastructure and missile sites, and killed senior security officials.
“I think the regime really feels vulnerable,” said Ross, now a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. While he argues that Israel’s primary goal is to thwart Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, Ross admits that if the regime were to fall as a result, “Israel would not be sorry.”
Despite US President Donald Trump's belligerent tone in recent days, he would likely accept if Tehran offered a credible path to a deal, Ross said.
However, since Tehran has not offered any concessions during the previous six rounds of nuclear talks with the US, Washington will now seek firm assurances from Iran that its goals, including a permanent halt to uranium enrichment, will be met before supporting a ceasefire.
“I think the price will be high for them,” said Ros.
For Iran, there is one key calculation: to allow the 86-year-old Khamenei to step down without humiliation, two Iranian sources said. If his dignity or prospects for survival are stripped away, he could opt for all-out conflict, they added.
After Trump called for Iran's "unconditional surrender" on social media on Tuesday, Khamenei vowed in a televised address that any US military attack on Iran would be met with "irreparable damage."
Netanyahu has also openly raised the possibility of regime change in recent days, telling the Iranians that "the day of liberation is coming."
Regional governments fear the situation could spiral out of control and plunge Iran, an ethnically diverse nation of 90 million people at the crossroads of the Middle East and Asia, into chaos or spark a conflict that would spread beyond its borders.
"You can't reshape the region with belligerent force," said Anwar Gargash, an adviser to the president of the United Arab Emirates. "You might solve some problems, but you'll create others."
Iran isolated
Iran's decades-long model of waging war from the shadows through proxies collapsed under the Israeli offensive after the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, 2023. Its regional Axis of Resistance disintegrated: Hamas was crushed in Gaza, Hezbollah was defeated in Lebanon, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was overthrown by rebels, and the Houthi militia in Yemen went on the defensive.
Russia and China, considered allies of Tehran, have remained on the sidelines, leaving Iran isolated in the face of Western powers determined to end its regional influence and nuclear ambitions, a Reuters analysis points out.
Presidents Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping yesterday condemned Israel for its attack on Iran and agreed that de-escalation was necessary, the Kremlin announced after a telephone conversation between the two leaders.
Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the Washington-based Middle East Institute, says Iran is not just facing Israel.
“It faces the United States and European powers,” he said.
While Sunni Arab Gulf states have publicly condemned the Israeli attacks, privately leaders in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, longtime U.S. allies, may be welcoming the weakening of their Shiite rival, whose proxies have in the past attacked key infrastructure in the Gulf, including oil facilities, analysts say.
On the military front, according to Reuters, Tehran has few options. Israel controls the skies over Iran, having largely destroyed its air defenses. Much of Iran's ballistic missile arsenal is believed to have been damaged by Israeli strikes, and of the approximately 400 missiles Iran fired, most were destroyed by Israel's multi-layered air defense system.
"When the rocket runs out, what's left?" Vatanka asks.
However, as the Iranian opposition is divided and there are no signs of discord within the powerful Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which numbers nearly 250.000 fighters, including volunteers from the Basij militia, there is little chance that Iran's ruling elite will fall so easily, Reuters estimates.
There were no major protests on the streets of Tehran, and many Iranians are expressing anger at Israel for the attack. Without a ground invasion or an internal uprising from within, regime change in Iran is a remote possibility, officials said.
Trump issued a veiled threat to Khamenei on Tuesday, saying that US intelligence knows where he is and has no intention of killing him "for now."
The Israeli assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in September threw the Lebanese group into chaos, but regional officials and observers have warned that killing the aging Khamenei would not have the same effect.
“Real power now lies with his son Mojtaba and the Revolutionary Guards, which are deeply entrenched despite the loss of key commanders,” said one regional source. “They remain the backbone of the regime.”
Reuters writes that the assassination of Khamenei, the religious leader of millions of Shiites, could have serious repercussions.
Jonathan Panikoff, a senior US intelligence official for the Middle East during Trump's first term, said that if the Israeli campaign does indeed instigate regime change in Iran, it could lead, at least initially, to an even more hardline regime.
“What would likely follow the theocratic rule in Iran is not a democracy, but something like Guardistan, a state ruled by the Revolutionary Guard,” said Panikoff, now an analyst at the Atlantic Council. “Israel could find itself in a permanent, ongoing, and far more intense war that is no longer fought from the shadows.”
Israel needs America
Danny Ross points out that the next move is up to Trump, who must decide whether to intervene militarily to force Iran to make concessions.
Israeli officials admit that in order to destroy Iran's nuclear capabilities, which are hidden in secure locations deep underground, such as the fortified Fordow facility near Tehran, they would need to obtain from the United States their most powerful bunker-busting bomb.
On the other hand, as Reuters writes, if Trump declares a ceasefire with an agreement on the Iranian nuclear program, Netanyahu will not object, provided that he can convincingly claim that Tehran's threat to Israel has been essentially neutralized.
Trump has escalated his rhetoric toward Iran in recent days, issuing veiled military threats, but has left open the possibility of negotiations.
"Nobody knows what I'm going to do," he told reporters on Wednesday, adding that Iranian officials had reached out about possible talks. "It's a little late."
The message to Iran is clear, Ross said: begin serious negotiations soon or face a military situation far worse than today.
In an attempt to restart negotiations, the foreign ministers of Germany, France and Britain plan to hold nuclear talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi in Geneva today.
Mark Dabowitz, executive director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington, believes that Trump ultimately wants a diplomatic solution, but that he will likely allow Israel more time to continue its military campaign so that the US has a stronger position at the negotiating table.
Dabovich, an Iran expert consulted by the Trump administration on its policy, said Israel's main goal appears to be to set back Iran's nuclear program by as many years as possible. A key part of that is eliminating human resources by assassinating nuclear and military scientists. Dabovich added that his team has identified 10 to 12 more such experts that Israel is likely seeking.
Meanwhile, Israeli opposition parties, as well as the public, have sided with Netanyahu, giving him the space to carry out this complex operation, despite Iranian missiles hitting Israeli territory. Israel operates 1.500 to 2.000 kilometers from its territory, with complex and expensive logistical requirements.
"This is math," said one Israeli source. "How many rockets do they fire. How many do we destroy. How long can we hold out."
Reuters writes that Israeli strikes have already killed key members of the so-called "weapons group," which Israel claims is responsible for converting enriched uranium into an actual nuclear bomb, and undermined Iran's ability to produce long-range missiles.
This, Israeli leaders argue, creates the conditions for a US-Iranian agreement that would respect Israeli red lines.
Yuli Edelstein, chairman of the Israeli parliament's Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee and a prominent member of the ruling Likud party, told Reuters that if Washington and key European powers engage diplomatically, applying pressure and devising a clear exit strategy, "they could prevent unnecessary developments in this war."
Dangerous vacuum
If the conflict escalates, officials in the region fear that the fall of Khamenei's rule would lead not to democracy, but to fragmentation, or worse: a civil war, which, fueled by Iran's marginalized minorities, Arabs, Kurds, Azeris, Baha'is, Baloch, and Christians, could erupt in a dangerous power vacuum.
"And no one is ready for that," warned one Gulf source.
The UAE Foreign Ministry referred Reuters to its previous statements condemning Israeli strikes on Iran. The media services of the Saudi and Qatari governments did not respond to requests for comment.
French President Emmanuel Macron repeated that warning at a G7 leaders' summit this week, saying forced regime change in Iran would bring chaos. He cited the failures of the 2003 US invasion of Iraq and the 2011 NATO-backed intervention in Libya as cautionary examples.
In contrast, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz stated: "We are dealing with a terrorist regime both internally and externally. It would be good if that regime came to an end."
Vatanka of the Middle East Institute warned that the tremors caused by the fall of the government in Tehran would not stop at Iran's borders.
"A destabilized Iran," he added, "could spark unrest from Azerbaijan to Pakistan. Its collapse would reverberate throughout the region, destabilizing fragile states and reigniting frozen conflicts."
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