"Iran will not capitulate and will continue to defend itself."
With these words, the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Ali Khamenei, addressed the public in a televised speech on June 18. His exact whereabouts are unknown.
Israel has been bombing military and nuclear facilities in Iran since June 13, claiming it wants to prevent Tehran from developing nuclear weapons. Iran has retaliated with airstrikes on Israeli territory. Rumors are now circulating among the Iranian population that Khamenei – like senior Revolutionary Guard officers – could become a target of Israeli attacks.
The question that now arises is: how can a regime that cannot protect its own leaders claim to be the guarantor of the country's territorial integrity? For Majid Golpour, an Iranian expert living in exile, the answer is clear: "Contrary to all the claims about missile defense and leadership protection, everyone now sees the regime's complete ineffectiveness."
Can bombs bring down a regime?
Will the constant attacks mark the beginning of the regime's collapse? According to sociologist Golpur, this largely depends on whether there is a credible political alternative. "Now is the moment when national political forces should agree on a common platform - both against the ruling regime and against external threats. But so far, concrete plans, operational coalitions and functional structures within the opposition are lacking."
The Iranian opposition abroad is fragmented: a section of the diaspora sees Reza Pahlavi, the eldest son of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, who was overthrown in 1979, as a possible transitional figure and symbol of national unity. Since the Islamic Revolution, he has lived in exile – mainly in the United States – and has emerged as an opponent of the Islamic Republic. But he has no political organization in Iran itself, and his father's regime is by no means well-remembered by all Iranians.
Opposition voices in Iran have been systematically suppressed by the authorities for decades. Anyone who demonstrates the ability to rally people is discredited, monitored, arrested, and often sentenced to long prison terms.
(Justified) pride of Iranians
Nevertheless, political scientist Shukrija Bradost, a non-resident fellow at the Middle East Institute, sees an opportunity: if the regime were to seriously weaken, a political vacuum could emerge. That would be an opportunity for opposition groups to organize protests and strikes and initiate change. In the context of a conflict, this is extremely rare, but she thinks it could still be possible.
The decisive factor in this scenario is the strong patriotic feelings and pride of the Iranians in their homeland with its ancient culture. But in the war and in the attacks of Israel, this is more likely to help the current regime. Patriotism helped the regime stabilize after the 1979 revolution. When Iraq under Saddam Hussein attacked Iran in the fall of 1980, the population stood by their country. An eight-year war followed in which about a million Iranians died, but Iraq never succeeded in its military goals.
Today, the Islamic Republic is once again using nationalist rhetoric to consolidate its rule. But exiled political scientist Shahran Tabari warns: "The Islamic Republic has realized that people no longer identify with the 'nation of Islam' but see themselves as Iranians." She is convinced that "no reasonable person" can believe this rhetoric from the Islamic regime.
They don't want foreigners to "pick their brains"
What are many people in Iran feeling right now, other than fear and anger over an escalating conflict over which they have no influence? That is difficult to determine. While there are many critical voices within the country about the regime, many of them reject "advice" from exile.
Nobel Peace Prize laureate Nargiz Mohammadi is calling on Israel to immediately stop the attacks. The United States should advocate for de-escalation. In a video message to the American television network CNN, she appealed: "I would like to ask President Trump not to join this war, but to stop it. A ceasefire is needed throughout the Middle East."
And the West is not united in its policy toward Iran. Despite the harsh rhetoric toward Tehran, there is a lack of a coordinated strategy for possible regime change. While some American advisers like John Bolton advocate military pressure, President Donald Trump has so far shown restraint – for now. However, it is very difficult to assess whether American military force would crush this regime in Tehran – or actually help it mobilize on the basis of patriotic feelings of the Iranians.
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