Perhaps the most anticipated airstrike in history finally took place in the early hours of June 22. US B-2 bombers carried out a massive bunker-busting attack on Fordow, one of Iran's key nuclear facilities. US President Donald Trump had been threatening such an operation for months. Israel, which entered war with Iran on June 13, had been pressing for the strike, and the Middle East had been anxiously awaiting the moment for days.
Two key questions now arise: how much damage the attack really did to Iran's nuclear program, and how Iran will retaliate against the U.S. The answers to those questions will determine whether this was an isolated strike and perhaps the beginning of the end of the Israeli-Iranian war, or whether America will be drawn into a broader conflict.
So far, only scant information is known. The Pentagon is reportedly set to hold a briefing on Sunday morning local time in Washington. The attack was carried out by six B-2 bombers, which dropped between six and 12 specialized bombs on Fordow. In addition, the US also attacked the nuclear facilities at Natanz and Isfahan with submarine-launched cruise missiles.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and Saudi authorities said there were no signs of nuclear contamination – which would not be expected given the nature of the strike.
In a scathing White House address, Trump said that “Iran’s nuclear program has been completely destroyed.” That claim is exaggerated: Iran has decades of accumulated knowledge that cannot be erased in a single attack. Still, if Fordow was indeed destroyed, it would be a serious blow. The process of enriching uranium to levels close to those needed for nuclear weapons was carried out there. Another such site, Natanz, has been hit by Israeli strikes before. Fordow is located under a mountain range, protected by a 400-meter-thick layer of rock. Some military officials doubted that the US GBU-57 super-bomb, weighing 13 tons, could penetrate deep enough to cause damage. That’s why several of them were dropped. Satellite images will show the extent of the destruction, but even if the uranium enrichment hall was not directly hit, the shock wave may have been enough to destroy sensitive equipment.
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It is also unclear what happened to Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium. Some of it was stored in tunnels in Isfahan. The cruise missile attack was likely aimed at collapsing the entrances to those tunnels, but Iranian authorities have previously indicated that they have moved some of the material.
How will the Iranian regime respond? Hours after the US strike, Iran fired a salvo of ballistic missiles at Israel, sending residents running for cover. Most of the missiles were intercepted. However, there is every indication that Iran will not stop there. Officials had warned before the attack that it would retaliate directly against the US. State television said that all Americans in the region – whether military or civilian – were now legitimate targets.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that "this morning's events are horrific and will have lasting consequences." The US attacks, he said, were criminal, and Iran "reserves all options to defend itself."
In addition to continuing its attacks on Israel, Iran has a whole list of options, and each of them is bad. It could launch drones and missiles at US bases in the region, attack US allies by targeting oil facilities in Saudi Arabia or skyscrapers in Dubai, or block the Strait of Hormuz, through which a third of the world's crude oil exports pass, causing oil prices to explode.
But all of these moves could be fatal for the regime, as they would provoke an even stronger American response. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei probably wants to retaliate, but also to preserve the regime. Meanwhile, his regional allies are already acting: Yemen's Houthis are threatening to attack merchant ships in the Red Sea, and Iraqi militias could target American troops. Israel is preparing for a possible strike by Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The ideal scenario would be for Iran to carry out a symbolic attack, as after the killing of General Soleimani in 2020. Trump could then pressure Israel to reduce the intensity of the conflict and invite Iran back to the negotiating table to reach a new nuclear agreement.
"The Middle East bully must make peace now. If they don't, the next strikes will be much stronger and much easier," Trump said. It's his favorite tactic – escalation to de-escalation. Some Iranian officials are already playing down the damage from the US strike, which could be a sign they want to avoid a wider conflict. But there will also be those who advocate retaliation – which could drag the US into a spiral of war.
That is the fear of isolationists in Trump's camp, who have been campaigning for days against direct American involvement in the war. Steve Bannon, Trump's former adviser, said that "America is touching a hornet's nest." But most Republicans support the US president - or are silent. The Republican Party's congressional leadership has supported the president, albeit with a degree of caution.
America faces a very serious choice, said Roger Wicker, chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee. Democrats criticized Trump for ordering the attack without congressional approval.
The last possible scenario is that the war does not escalate immediately, but also does not end with an agreement. America wants Iran to give up uranium enrichment. Iran refuses this - it refused during two months of negotiations, as well as at a meeting with European diplomats in Geneva on June 20.
Instead of a strong military response, Iran could now abandon the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, expel UN inspectors, and try to secretly restart its program. It has already announced a third uranium enrichment facility. If it has hidden material and centrifuges, it could try to make a homemade nuclear bomb.
For now, the US strikes have set back Iran’s nuclear program. But the consequences of a direct conflict with Iran are profound and unpredictable. Iran could escalate, forcing Trump to respond—or collapse, leaving the region in chaos. The strikes could trigger negotiations that would end both the threat of an Iranian bomb and the country’s long isolation. Or, in the worst-case scenario, Iran could become more assertive and work more determinedly on a secret nuclear weapon, requiring America to launch a long-term military strategy to counter it.
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