Over the past two decades, the United States has used sanctions, sabotage, cyberattacks, and diplomatic negotiations to try to slow Iran's long path to nuclear weapons.
Donald Trump yesterday launched a demonstration of raw military force, something the previous four US presidents had deliberately avoided, for fear of pushing the US into war in the Middle East.
After repeating for days that he could not take the risk that the mullahs and generals in Tehran, who had survived the Israeli attacks, would take the final step towards nuclear weapons, Trump ordered a squadron of B-2 bombers to fly nearly ten thousand kilometers and drop the most powerful conventional bombs on the most sensitive points in Iran's nuclear infrastructure.
Analysts say the decision is the biggest and potentially most dangerous risk of his second term. It could further inflame conflicts in the region and backfire on a president who has promised not to drag America into new global conflicts.
Iran has repeatedly said that if the US joins the war, it will retaliate against American forces and interests in the region.
Trump calculates that the United States can repel any retaliation ordered by the Iranian leadership against the more than 40.000 American troops stationed at bases throughout the region. All of them are within range of Iran’s missile arsenal, even after eight days of continuous Israeli attacks. His calculation is also that he can deter a severely weakened Iran from using its familiar methods of terrorism, hostage-taking and cyberattacks as indirect forms of retaliation, the New York Times writes.
Most importantly, he calculates that he has destroyed Iran's chances of ever rebuilding its nuclear program. This, according to the American newspaper, is an ambitious goal, given that Iran has made it clear that if attacked, it would withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and move its extensive program underground.
That's why Trump has focused so much attention on destroying Fordow, a facility Iran built in secret in the mid-2000s and publicly revealed by President Barack Obama in 2009. It was there that Iran produced almost all of the fuel enriched to near-bomb levels that most concerned the US and its allies.
Trump aides told those allies Saturday night that Washington's sole mission was to destroy the nuclear program. They described the complex strike as a limited and controlled operation, similar to the one that killed Osama bin Laden in 2011.
“They made it clear that this is not a declaration of war,” a senior European diplomat said late Saturday, describing a conversation with a senior administration official.
However, the diplomat added that Bin Laden had killed 3.000 Americans, while Iran had not yet built a bomb.
The US administration claims that this is a preventive act, aimed at eliminating a threat, not at overthrowing the Iranian regime. However, it is not clear whether the Iranians will perceive it that way.
All eyes are now on Tehran's next move, which now has several options. One is diplomacy and the possibility of Iran returning to the negotiating table, which is not particularly realistic after the US strikes on its territory.
"It's a huge incentive to end the war and save the regime," Amos Yadlin, the former head of Israel's military intelligence, told CNN.
Iran could “announce that it is coming to negotiations and seeking an end to the war. Negotiations based on a complete cessation of uranium enrichment,” Yadlin said. He said Iran could also withdraw from the NPT, but noted that Iran’s capacity to build a bomb “does not exist in the next year or two.”
Iran could also close the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20 percent of the world's oil and gas demand passes, giving it the power to influence all trade in the Gulf. This would lead to a rise in energy prices and affect the entire global economy.
Geographical influence over global waterways gives Iran "the power to cause a shock in oil markets, raise oil prices, cause inflation and derail Trump's economic agenda," Middle East expert Mohammad Ali Shabani told CNN.
Aaron David Miller, a former State Department Middle East negotiator and now an analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said Trump “has plenty of political space” to continue the conflict, especially if Iran retaliates.
However, the situation could reverse if the war spreads and causes a new energy crisis.
"How Americans would react to the deaths of American soldiers and oil prices above $100 per barrel is another question," Miller said.
Trump, under pressure from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, saw the attack on Iran as both an opportunity to be seized and a chance to secure a legacy as a leader willing to use American military power, the Financial Times writes.
Geographical influence over global waterways gives Iran “the power to shock oil markets, drive up oil prices, cause inflation and derail Trump’s economic agenda.”
The action came at a time when 51 percent of Americans disapprove of his performance, while 46,9 percent express support for the president, the FT reported.
Trump's critics in Congress have already questioned his approach.
Senator Mark Warner of Virginia, the top Democrat on the Intelligence Committee, said Trump acted “without consultation with Congress, without a clear strategy, without acknowledging the consistent conclusions of the intelligence community” that Iran had not made a decision on the final steps toward building a bomb.
The reaction of Chris Van Hollen, a Democratic senator from Maryland, indicated the kind of attacks Trump can expect at home in the coming days.
"The war in Iraq was also started under false pretenses," Van Hollen said. "The United States rightly supported the defense of Israel, but it should not have joined Netanyahu in waging this war of its own choosing."
If Iran is unable to respond effectively, if the ayatollah's authority is weakened, or if the country gives up its nuclear ambitions, Trump will undoubtedly claim that he alone was willing to use American military power to achieve a goal that his four predecessors considered too risky, writes the New York Times.
But he adds that there is also the possibility that Iran will gradually recover, that its surviving nuclear scientists will continue their work in secret, and that the country will follow the path of North Korea in the race to build a bomb. According to some intelligence estimates, North Korea now possesses 60 or more nuclear warheads, an arsenal that probably makes it too powerful to be attacked.
Iran might conclude that this is the only way to keep larger, hostile powers at bay and prevent the US and Israel from carrying out an operation like the one that lit up the Iranian skies on Sunday morning.
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