The clock is ticking for senior religious officials searching for a successor to Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
A three-member committee from the top clerical body, appointed by Khamenei himself two years ago to identify his successor, has accelerated its planning in recent days after Israel attacked Iran and threatened to assassinate the longtime leader, informed sources told Reuters.
Khamenei, 86, is regularly briefed on these conversations, according to Iranian sources who asked not to be named due to the sensitivity of the subject. According to a senior security official, he has withdrawn from public view with his family and is being guarded by the Revolutionary Guards' special unit, the Vali-ye Amr.
The ruling establishment will try to immediately appoint Khamenei's successor in the event he is killed, to demonstrate stability and continuity, the sources said, although they acknowledged that it is difficult to predict Iran's political trajectory thereafter.
The new leader, according to an insider close to Khamenei's cabinet and familiar with the succession talks, will certainly be chosen based on his or her loyalty to the revolutionary principles of the founder of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.
At the same time, top officials are also considering which candidate could represent a more moderate face, in order to prevent foreign attacks and internal unrest, one of the interlocutors said.
Five insiders say that two main candidates have emerged in the succession talks: Khamenei's 56-year-old son Mojtaba, long seen as a continuity candidate, and the new contender Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of the father of the Islamic Revolution.
Khomeini, a close ally of the reformist faction that advocates easing social and political restrictions, nevertheless enjoys respect among senior clergy and the Revolutionary Guards because of his background, the sources added.
"I humbly express once again that this small and insignificant servant of the Iranian people is ready to be proudly present on any front or scene that you deem necessary," Khomeini, 53, said in a public message of support for the supreme leader on Saturday, hours before the United States bombed Iran's nuclear facilities.
Khomeini was shortlisted as a serious candidate this month, amid clashes with Israel and America, because he could represent a more conciliatory choice both internationally and domestically compared to Mojtaba Khamenei, five people familiar with the matter said.
In contrast, Khamenei is consistently following his father's hard line, according to insiders who warn that nothing has been decided yet, candidates may change, and the final word will be with the Supreme Leader.
However, with the military conflict still ongoing, it remains unclear whether it would be possible to easily elect a new leader, install him safely in office, and whether he could assume the level of authority that Khamenei had, the sources added.
The Israeli strikes also killed several senior commanders of Iran's Revolutionary Guard, which could further complicate the process of transferring power, as this elite military force has long played a key role in enforcing the supreme leader's rule.
Trump: Khamenei is an easy target
Planning for a possible transfer of power was already underway due to Khamenei's age and long-standing health problems for the leader who has dominated all aspects of Iranian politics for decades, sources said.
The urgency of the task was further underscored in September when Israel killed Hezbollah leader Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah, a close ally of Khamenei. Planning then accelerated significantly this month after Israeli attacks on nuclear facilities and then US strikes over the weekend.
“We know exactly where the so-called ‘Supreme Leader’ is hiding,” US President Donald Trump warned on social media last week, calling for Tehran to surrender unconditionally. “He is an easy target.”
Khamenei has never publicly stated his preference for his successor. Sources say he has repeatedly opposed the idea of his son taking over in previous succession talks, worried that such a move would give the impression of Iran returning to the form of hereditary rule that ended with the overthrow of the Shah in 1979.
The role of supreme leader was established after the revolution and then enshrined in the constitution, which gives a single supreme cleric ultimate authority in directing the elected president and parliament.
Officially, the supreme leader is chosen by the Assembly of Experts, a body made up of 88 senior clerics elected in national elections, with all candidates having to be previously approved by a conservative oversight body close to Khamenei.
“Whether the Islamic Republic survives or not, it will be a very different republic because the context in which it existed has fundamentally changed,” London-based Iranian political analyst Hossein Rassam told Reuters, adding that Hassan Khomeini could be the right leader for Iran’s new direction. “The regime needs to choose someone who will facilitate a gradual transition.”
Hassan Khomeini's close ties to the reformist faction of Iranian politics, which in the 1990s tried but failed to open Iran to the outside world, led conservative officials to bar him from running for membership in the Assembly of Experts in 2016.
Five insiders say succession planners are aware that Khomeini would likely be more acceptable to the Iranian public than hardliners. Last year, he warned of a “crisis of growing popular discontent” over poverty and deprivation.
In contrast, Mojtaba Khamenei shares his father's views on all key issues, from dealing with opponents to taking a hard line against foreign enemies, sources say, and these traits are seen as risky at a time when Iran is under attack.
Mojtaba, a mid-ranking cleric who teaches theology at a religious school in the city of Qom, the center of Iranian religious life, has never held an official position in the Islamic Republic but wields significant influence behind the scenes as a gatekeeper to his father.
The US Treasury Department imposed sanctions on Mojtaba in 2019, stating that he represents the religious leader “in an official capacity, although he has never been elected or appointed to public office,” other than working in his father’s office.
Over the past 20 years, Mojtaba has built close ties with the Revolutionary Guard, which, according to sources speaking to Reuters, has given him additional power within Iran's political and security apparatus.
Mojtaba has been the target of popular anger during protests since 2009, and particularly during months of unrest that gripped Iran following the death in police custody of a young woman in 2022, who was arrested for allegedly violating the Islamic Republic's strict dress code. He has appeared at rallies for regime supporters but has rarely spoken in public.
Other candidates in the background
Several candidates long considered possible successors to Khamenei have already passed away. Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani died in 2017, former Supreme Court Chief Justice Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi died of natural causes in 2018, and former President Ebrahim Raisi died in a helicopter crash in 2024. Another senior cleric, Sadegh Amoli Larijani, has been removed from the scene.
Others, such as Assembly of Experts member Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, are still in the game, but, according to five sources, they are taking a back seat to Mojtaba Khamenei and Hassan Khomeini.
In addition to the most likely candidates, it is also possible that a lesser-known cleric could be chosen as a pawn of the Revolutionary Guard, said Ali Vaz, director of the Iran project at the International Crisis Group.
"It's possible they'll propose a candidate that no one has ever heard of and who wouldn't actually have the levers of power that Ayatollah Khamenei has held for over 30 years," he said.
The voice of the supreme leader has enormous power.
After the death of the founder of the Islamic Republic, Ruhollah Khomeini, in 1989, Khamenei was publicly presented as his chosen successor. Although already president, Khamenei was then a mid-ranking cleric and was initially dismissed by many influential clerics as a weak and unworthy successor to his charismatic predecessor.
However, he gradually consolidated power and became the undisputed decision-maker in Iran, relying on the Revolutionary Guard, outsmarting rivals and quelling waves of popular discontent.
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