A lack of commanders, the loss of much of the tunnel network, and uncertain support from its ally Iran have left Hamas struggling for survival in Gaza, facing rebellious local tribes and relentless Israeli military pressure.
Hamas fighters are operating independently, under orders to hold their own as long as possible, but the Islamist group is finding it difficult to maintain control because Israel openly supports tribes that oppose it, Reuters reported, citing sources close to Hamas.
As the humanitarian crisis in Gaza deepens and international pressure for a ceasefire intensifies, Hamas desperately needs an end to the conflict, one of the interlocutors said.
A ceasefire would not only provide relief to exhausted Gazans, who are increasingly critical of Hamas, but would also allow the Islamist group to crack down on rogue elements, including some clans and looters who steal aid, the source said.
To counter the immediate threat, Hamas sent some of its best fighters to eliminate the rebel leader. Jasera Abu Shabab, but he, according to two Hamas sources and two other sources familiar with the situation, has so far remained out of their reach in the Rafah area under the control of Israeli forces.
Reuters spoke to 16 sources, including people close to Hamas, Israeli security sources and diplomats, who described a seriously weakened group that still has some influence and operational capacity in Gaza but faces difficult challenges.
Reuters reports that Hamas remains capable of striking, having killed seven Israeli soldiers in an attack in southern Gaza on Tuesday. But three Middle East diplomats said intelligence assessments showed the group had lost centralized command and control and was reduced to limited, surprise attacks.
An Israeli military official estimates that Israel has killed 20.000 or more Hamas fighters and destroyed or disabled hundreds of kilometers of tunnels under the Gaza Strip. Much of the enclave has been reduced to rubble during the 20-month conflict.
An Israeli security source said the average age of Hamas fighters is “getting lower by the day.” Israeli security sources say Hamas recruits from among hundreds of thousands of poor, unemployed and displaced young men.
Hamas does not announce how many of its fighters have been killed.
“They hide because the planes immediately target them, but they occasionally appear, organizing lines in front of bakeries, protecting aid trucks or punishing criminals,” said Essam (57), a construction worker from Gaza.
"They are not like before the war, but they exist."
Senior Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri told Reuters that the group was working on an agreement to end the war with Israel, but that "surrender is not an option."
Hamas remains committed to negotiations and “is ready to release all prisoners at once,” he said, referring to Israeli hostages, but demands that the killing stop and that Israel withdraw.
Hamas is a shadow of the group that attacked Israel in 2023, killing 1.200 people and capturing 251 others, according to Israeli figures. The Israeli offensive has so far claimed more than 56.000 lives, according to health authorities in Gaza.
Reuters writes that the damage Israel has inflicted on Hamas is unprecedented compared to anything the group has suffered since its founding, with most of its top military commanders in Gaza killed. Hamas, founded in 1987, gradually established itself as the main rival to the Fatah faction led by President Mahmoud Abbas, finally taking control of Gaza in 2007.
As the ceasefire in the Iran-Israel war holds, attention has turned once again to a possible deal on Gaza that could end the conflict and lead to the release of the remaining hostages.
A source close to Hamas told Reuters that the group would welcome a ceasefire, even for a few months, to deal with local clans that are gaining increasing influence.
However, he added that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's conditions for an end to the war, including the departure of Hamas leaders from Gaza, would constitute a complete defeat and that Hamas would never surrender.
"We are not losing hope, but in reality it is not looking good," the source said.
Yazid Sayig, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, said he believes Hamas is simply trying to survive. It's not just a physical survival challenge in a military sense, but primarily a political one, he said.
"They face the threat of being eliminated in Gaza if the war is not stopped, but also the possibility of being erased from any governance formula that would follow the war (if such a formula is found at all)," he said in a written response to questions from Reuters.
The Palestinian tribes have emerged as part of Israel's strategy to suppress Hamas. Netanyahu has said publicly that Israel is arming clans that oppose Hamas, but has not specified which ones.
One of the most serious challenges comes from Abu Shabaab, a Palestinian Bedouin from the Rafah area, which is under Israeli control.
Hamas wants Abu Shabab captured, dead or alive, and accuses him of collaborating with Israel and planning attacks on the Islamist group, three Hamas sources told Reuters.
Abu Shabaab controls the eastern part of Rafah, and its group is believed to have freedom of movement in the wider Rafah area. Photos on their Facebook page show armed members organizing the entry of trucks carrying humanitarian aid through the Kerem Shalom crossing.
The Palestinian tribes have emerged as part of Israel's strategy to suppress Hamas. Netanyahu has said publicly that Israel is arming clans that oppose Hamas, but has not specified which ones.
His group's statements indicate that they are trying to establish an independent administration in the area, although they deny that they are seeking to become the government. The group has called on people from Rafah who are now in other parts of Gaza to return home, promising them food and shelter.
When contacted by Reuters, the Abu Shabaab group denied receiving support from Israel or having contacts with the Israeli military, describing itself as a popular force that protects humanitarian aid from looting by escorting aid trucks.
They also accused Hamas of violence and suppressing dissent.
A Hamas security official said that Palestinian security services would “strike with an iron fist to eradicate the gangs of collaborator Yasser Abu Shabaab,” stressing that they would show no mercy or hesitation, and accusing him of being part of “an effort to create chaos and lawlessness.”
However, as Reuters points out, not all clans in Gaza are in conflict with Hamas.
A tribal alliance said on Thursday that its men had protected aid trucks from looters in northern Gaza. Sources close to Hamas said the group had approved the alliance's participation.
Israel said that Hamas fighters had actually seized the trucks, a claim denied by both the clans and Hamas.
Palestinian analyst Akram Atala says the emergence of Abu Shabaab is a result of Hamas's weakness, although he expects it to eventually collapse because Palestinians largely reject any sign of cooperation with Israel.
Still, no matter how small the Abu Shabaab group is, the fact that Hamas has an enemy from the same culture is a danger, he said. “It remains a threat until it is resolved.”
The Reuters analysis says that Israel's bombing campaign against Iran has further increased the uncertainty facing Hamas. It adds that Tehran's support for Hamas has played a significant role in strengthening its armed wing into a force capable of firing rockets deep into Israel.
Although both Iran and Israel declared victory, Netanyahu suggested on Sunday that Israel's campaign against Tehran had further strengthened its position in Gaza, saying it would "help hasten our victory and the release of all our hostages."
US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that great progress had been made in Gaza, adding that a strike on Iran would help free the hostages.
A Palestinian official close to Hamas said the group was considering the risk of reducing Iranian support, expecting it to reflect "on the form of funding and expertise that Iran provided to the resistance and Hamas."
One of the targets of Israel's campaign in Iran was a Revolutionary Guard officer who oversaw coordination with Hamas. Israel said Saeed Izadi, whose death it announced on Saturday, was a driving force in the Iran-Hamas axis.
Hamas sent its condolences to Iran on Thursday, calling Izadi a friend who was directly responsible for ties to the "leadership of the Palestinian resistance."
A source from an Iranian-backed group in the region said that Izadi helped develop Hamas's capabilities, including carrying out complex attacks, such as rocket launches, infiltration operations and the use of drones.
When asked how Israel's campaign against Iran might affect Iran's support for Hamas, Abu Zuhri said that Iran is a large and powerful country that will not be defeated.
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