It was a call to someone she considered an old family friend. When Thai Prime Minister Phayetongtarn Shinawatra picked up the phone and called Hun Sen, the powerful former leader of neighboring Cambodia, she said she was trying to ease tensions over a border dispute.
Instead, their conversation - which, interestingly, was released in full by Hun Sen himself after part of the recording was leaked - has sparked a new political crisis in Thailand that could spell the end of her term as prime minister and seriously threaten the position of her family, the powerful Shinawatra dynasty. It is also likely to open a new chapter of political uncertainty in a country prone to military coups and judicial showdowns.
On Tuesday, the constitutional court suspended Paetongtarn from office, pending the outcome of an investigation into ethical violations, just days after 10.000 people took to the streets demanding her resignation.
The recording of the phone call has sparked outrage in Thailand, where critics of Paetongtarn see her as, at best, politically naive enough to protect the country's interests - and, at worst, a traitor. In the recording, Paetongtarn can be heard addressing Hun Sen as "uncle", saying he will "take care of whatever he wants" and criticizing a senior Thai military commander.
Paetongtarn, 38, had never held a government position before becoming prime minister less than a year ago. She took up the post only after her predecessor, Sreeta Tavisin, was disqualified by a court decision.
The Shinawatras, no stranger to street protests, criminal court rulings and even military intervention, have weathered many political storms. The family patriarch, former leader Thaksin Shinawatra, who was ousted in a 2006 coup, remains one of Thailand's most influential, and controversial, politicians, even after spending more than 15 years in self-imposed exile.
But Paetongtarn, the youngest prime minister in Thailand’s history, took office at a particularly difficult time, leading an unusual coalition formed after her father had struck a Faustian bargain the previous year, in which his party allied with old adversaries to form a government. The controversial arrangement was mutually beneficial: it allowed the conservatives to keep a new threat, the young, reformist Forward Party, out of power. Thaksin returned to the country without spending a full 24 hours behind bars.
However, the recent earthquake has raised the question of whether this crisis could mark the end of the powerful Shinawatra dynasty.
“I think the elite are increasingly convinced that they may not have to rely on Thaksin anymore,” said Pavin Chachawalpongpun, a professor at the Center for Southeast Asian Studies at Kyoto University. “Paetongtarn will eventually be overthrown, one way or another ... they are left without a representative from the Shinawatra dynasty,” Pavin says. Even if another relative appears, in his opinion, “the Thai people are already fed up with everything.”
Paetongtarn is now the fourth member of her family to serve as prime minister, but she has witnessed the ups and downs of family power over the years.
As a student, Paetongtarn experienced the so-called “yellow shirt” protests that opposed her father and eventually forced him to step down. Later, in 2008, Thaksin’s son-in-law Somchai Wongsawat briefly served as prime minister, but was removed by a court order. Thaksin’s sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, who served as prime minister from 2011 to 2014, was also removed by a court order, followed by a military coup in 2014.
Many of the protest leaders who gathered against Paetongtarn on Saturday are experienced activists who have also protested against her relatives.
But the focus of the anti-Paetongtarn protests is different from those of the past. “There are legitimate reasons for organizing protests to demand the prime minister’s resignation,” said Napon Jatusripitag, a visiting fellow at the ISEAS Institute - Yusof Ishak. “But of course, in the political context of Thailand, protests quickly take on their own dynamics.”
There are concerns that if the protests escalate and become unruly, they could serve as a pretext for a military coup - although most analysts do not see such a threat as imminent at the moment. There are other measures that could be taken to permanently remove Paetongtarn from power or protect the interests of the elite, including legal action. “At this stage, the conservative establishment has not yet exhausted all its options. We have not yet gone through the full cycle of protests and legal interventions,” Napon said.
On the same day that Paetongtarn was suspended, her father Thaksin also appeared in court on charges of insulting royal honor. Thaksin probably hoped that the case, which concerned comments he made to South Korean media in a 2015 interview, had been forgotten.
Thaksin first came to power in 2001 and built a loyal base among the population of the poorer, rural northeast of the country, offering policies that improved living standards. However, he was hated by the military-royalist establishment, and a protracted power struggle between the two sides led to a cycle of protests, military interventions and legal proceedings that continues to this day.
Even before the current crisis, Peu Tai, the party founded by Thaksin, was already facing difficulties in fulfilling its campaign promises, while the decision to enter into an alliance with old opponents seriously undermined its credibility.
For the short term, Deputy Prime Minister Suri Zhuangrungruangkit took over as acting prime minister while the constitutional court reviews the case against Paetongtarn.
Wanwichit Bunprong, a political scientist at Rangsit University, said the government, led by the Peu Tai party, would try to do "everything to prevent the dissolution of parliament because the party is not currently ready to go to the polls."
Even if Paetongtarn survives the constitutional court investigation, other institutions, including the anti-corruption agency, could launch their own investigations. Protest groups could also continue to hold rallies. Paetongtarn, Wanwichit says, is considered “politically exhausted.”
It is not clear what will happen next, nor whether Thaksin will succeed in reaching a new agreement.
And former family friend and now adversary Hun Sen could continue to cause trouble across the border. He has previously threatened to “expose” comments he claims Thaksin personally made to him that allegedly contain insults to Thailand’s powerful monarchy. The details of those alleged statements, if any, are not yet known. “If you behave arrogantly, I will publish everything you told me,” Hun Sen said.
Translation: NB
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