Russian President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to give in to US President Donald Trump's ultimatum, which expires this Friday, and maintains the goal of full control over four Ukrainian regions, sources close to the Kremlin told Reuters.
Trump has threatened Russia with new sanctions and a 100 percent tariff on countries that buy Russian oil - among which China and India are the biggest buyers - if Putin does not agree to a ceasefire in the war in Ukraine.
According to three sources familiar with developments in the Kremlin, Putin believes that Russia is winning and doubts that new US sanctions, after multiple packages of economic measures during the three and a half years of war, could have a serious impact.
The Russian leader does not want to anger Trump and is aware that he may be rejecting a chance to mend relations with Washington and the West, but his war goals take precedence, two sources said.
Putin wants full control over the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions, which Russia has already declared its territory, and then, according to one source, he would be ready to discuss a peace agreement.
"If Putin were able to fully capture the four areas he annexed to Russia, he could claim that his war in Ukraine had achieved its goals," said James Rogers, author of the forthcoming book Russia's Return.
According to the first source, the current talks, in which Russian and Ukrainian negotiators have met three times since May, represent an attempt by Moscow to convince Trump that Putin is not rejecting peace - although the talks are devoid of substance, except for topics of humanitarian exchanges.
Russia says it is serious about reaching a long-term peace deal, but the process is hampered by wide differences in positions. Putin described the talks as "positive" last week.
Among Moscow's demands are full Ukrainian return from the four disputed areas, Ukraine's neutral status and limits on the size of its army - demands that Kiev rejects.
In a sign that there is still room for a deal before the deadline, Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff is set to visit Russia this week, following a sharp escalation in rhetoric between Trump and Moscow over the risk of nuclear war. On Monday, Russia said it was no longer bound by a moratorium on short- and intermediate-range nuclear missiles.
The Kremlin did not respond to Reuters' request for comment. All the sources spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the situation.
Although Trump has praised Putin in the past and touted the potential for a lucrative business relationship between the two countries, he has shown increasing impatience in recent months. He has expressed frustration with what he called Putin's "nonsense" and called Russia's bombing of Kiev and other cities "disgusting."
The Kremlin said it had noted Trump's statements but would not comment on them.
Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Sviridenko last week called on the world to apply "maximum pressure" on Russia after the deadliest airstrike in Kiev this year, which killed 31 people, including five children. She described the attack as Russia's response to Trump's ultimatum.
"President Trump wants to stop the killing, which is why he is selling American weapons to NATO members and threatening Putin with tough tariffs and sanctions if he does not agree to a ceasefire," said White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly.
The advance of Russian forces
According to the first Reuters source, Putin is privately concerned about the deterioration of relations with the United States. He remains hopeful that Russia could restore trade and political relations with the West and is "concerned" about Trump's discontent.
However, given the military successes on the ground and the increasing pressure on Ukraine, Putin does not believe now is the right time to end the war. "Neither the Russian people nor the military would understand if it stopped now," the source said.
Rogers points out that Putin has staked his political reputation and legacy on this war: "It is clear from his previous statements that he sees himself as the heir to the Russian tradition of resistance to the West in defense of national interests."
Another Russian source told Reuters that Putin values his relationship with Trump and does not want to anger him, but "the war takes priority - Putin cannot afford to end the war just because Trump asks for it."
A third source, familiar with the Kremlin's thinking, adds that Russia wants to conquer all four areas and sees no logic in stopping while achieving successes during the summer offensive.
Ukraine, according to data from the Finnish military think tank Black Bird Group, lost 502 square kilometers of territory in July, the largest monthly loss in 2025. Russia now controls about a fifth of Ukraine.
The Russian Army General Staff, according to the first source, told Putin that the Ukrainian front would collapse in two to three months.
However, Russia's territorial gains are limited - since the beginning of last year, only 5.000 square kilometers have been conquered, which is less than one percent of Ukraine's total area, according to a June report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington.
Western and Ukrainian military sources acknowledge that Russia is making progress, but slowly and with heavy losses. Military bloggers in Russia report that troops are stuck in urban and difficult-to-access areas, but estimate that other directions will be easier to conquer.
"He's threatened before."
Trump's ultimatum is "painful and unpleasant" but not catastrophic, said another source. A third added that the prevailing feeling in Moscow is that they "have nothing left to lose."
It is also unclear whether Trump will actually follow through on his threats. "He has threatened before and then backed down or changed his mind," the source told Reuters.
The same source added that it is difficult to imagine that China would stop buying Russian oil because of Trump's orders, warning that Trump's measures could backfire and cause oil prices to spike.
Due to previous sanctions, revenues for Russian oil and gas exporters have fallen sharply, and foreign direct investment fell by 63 percent last year, according to the United Nations. About $300 billion of Russian central bank assets are frozen abroad.
However, Russia's ability to wage war has remained intact, thanks to shipments of ammunition from North Korea and imports of components from China, which have enabled an enormous increase in weapons production. The Kremlin repeatedly reiterates that Russia has "immunity" to sanctions.
Trump himself has acknowledged Russia's ability to circumvent sanctions. "They're cunning and skilled at evading measures, so we'll see what happens," he told reporters over the weekend.
According to the first Russian source, Putin, by continuing the war, is rejecting the American offer from March that, in exchange for a complete ceasefire, Washington would lift sanctions, recognize Russian control over Crimea, and accept Moscow's de facto rule in the territories it has occupied since 2022.
"It was a fantastic opportunity," the source said, "but stopping a war is much harder than starting one."
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