When Sakda Wichiansil, a lawmaker from western Thailand, announced his resignation from the ruling Pheu Thai party in early September, his words reflected the dramatic fall of the country's most dominant politician, Thaksin Shinawatra.
“The Thai people across the country, and especially in my constituency - Kanchanaburi, Constituency No. 4 - are suffering,” he wrote on Facebook.
"The government has completely failed to solve their problems."
Former Prime Minister Thaksin, 76, led a populist machine to win votes in Southeast Asia's second-largest economy for a quarter of a century, but his grip on electoral politics has finally loosened, analysts say.
Billionaire Thaksin has found himself in a difficult situation after being outsmarted by a smaller former coalition partner, his daughter removed from the post of prime minister, and his once dominant party desperately begging the king to approve a snap election in which it would be hard to win, Reuters reports.
Thaksin, who had previously fled into exile, left Thailand yesterday on a private plane, without any public comment, fueling speculation about his intentions.
Police have confirmed that an influential Thai man has left the country, a day before a parliamentary vote to elect a new prime minister and ahead of a court ruling that could send him to prison, Reuters reported.
Thaksin's lawyer Winyat Chatmontri said he had no knowledge of his departure from the country, but added that the former prime minister had announced that he would appear in court next week.
A spokesman for the Pheu Thai party declined to comment on his moves, according to Reuters.
“You could say the Shinawatra family is politically spent,” said Titinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok.
Six prime ministers, either from the family itself or with its support, have been removed from power by court decisions or military coups, the latest among them being Thaksin's daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who was removed from office by the Constitutional Court on Friday.
Paetongtarn's departure, stemming from the betrayal of a longtime family ally, former Cambodian leader Hun Sen, who leaked her conversation on the eve of a deadly border conflict between the neighbors, set off an avalanche of political settlements.
Bhumjaithai, the coalition partner who left power after the leak of the video, announced that he would form a new government with the support of the largest parliamentary group, the opposition People's Party.
To counter, Pheu Thai announced yesterday that it would dissolve parliament if its candidate for prime minister wins a vote scheduled for today, which would lead to a general election.
Reuters writes that in both scenarios, Thaksin faces a struggle to maintain the once enormous influence that has seen parties under his wing win every election since 2001 - until the last one, in 2023, when a coalition deal ultimately brought his daughter to the prime minister's post.
Paetongtarn's, and therefore Pheu Thai's, popularity has plummeted from 31,35 percent last September to 9,2 percent in June, national polls show.
Thaksin, who holds Montenegrin citizenship, faces a new legal threat. The Supreme Court will rule on Tuesday whether it is legal for him to be kept in hospital rather than in prison after his return to Thailand in 2023, which could land him behind bars.
“Pheu Thai is basically losing everything right now,” said Thitipol Phakdivanit, a political analyst at Ubon Ratchathani University.
"And if the court rules against Thaksin next week, it would be a major disaster for the Shinawatras."
Populist machinery
A former police officer originally from northern Thailand who made billions in the telecommunications sector, Thaksin turned to politics in the mid-1990s, first as foreign minister and then as deputy prime minister.
The Thaksin Rak Thaksin Party, which he founded, brought him to power in 2001, when he launched a massive spending spree on healthcare, rural development and agricultural subsidies, laying the foundation for his enduring popularity in the country's agrarian heartland.
Reuters recalls that his rise also brought him into conflict with the conservative-royalist elite, who saw him as a crony capitalist who plundered the economy, creating the conditions for the military coup that overthrew him in 2006.
Parties supported by Thaksin continued to win elections after the coup, while some of his supporters founded the populist "red shirt" movement, which celebrated the former prime minister and challenged the conservative establishment for almost a decade through street protests and other forms of activism.
From self-imposed exile, Thaksin pushed his sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, to power, winning a landslide victory in the 2011 general election and attempting to replicate his populist policies. Conservatives regrouped and ousted her three years later.
Thaksin's daughter took over in 2023, leading a campaign imbued with nostalgia for previous Shinawatra governments, while her father prepared an unexpected homecoming, which analysts say was possible thanks to a deal with conservative rivals.
“This has led many of his former supporters to now see Thaksin as part of the elite,” says Suranand Vejjajiva, former secretary-general to the prime minister during Yingluck’s tenure.
"That's why his base has shrunk."
When he came to power, although Thaksin received a royal amnesty and appeared to be acting from the shadows, Pheu Thai struggled to fulfill campaign promises, including its flagship cash handout program, which drew criticism even within the party itself.
“They are just relying on a populist platform that no longer works in Thai politics,” said Titipol.
At least three lawmakers who have left Pheu Thai in recent weeks have cited the conduct of the economy as the main reason.
“The people who elected me pinned their hopes on the government to which I belonged,” Sakda wrote, listing lower prices for rice, corn, cassava and beef.
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