War on drugs or war on Maduro?

Much about the attack is disputed: On the night between Monday and Tuesday, US forces, according to government figures, opened fire on a speedboat in international waters off the coast of Venezuela, killing all eleven people on board.

According to the White House, these are "narco-terrorists" - members of the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua.

However, the US has not provided any evidence of the men's identities. In addition, according to research by the Inside Crime platform, Tren de Aragua has developed into one of the most powerful criminal organizations in South America over the past decade.

However, there is no evidence that the gang is active in international drug trafficking. Also, the US government appears to be systematically overestimating the threat the gang poses to the US.

Immediately after his inauguration in January, Donald Trump declared Tren de Aragua, along with several Latin American drug cartels, as terrorist organizations – including the Cartel de los Soles (Cartel of the Suns).

Is Venezuela a narco-state?

The Cartel of the Sun, named after the suns on the insignia of Venezuelan generals instead of the usual stars, is a less clearly structured cartel, and more related to the fact that former and active members of the Venezuelan military are involved in the drug trade.

It is unclear how many there are and to what extent they are involved, partly because in Venezuela, prosecuting such activities is not a priority.

Diosdado Cabello, vice president of the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) and interior minister, has long been considered one of the leaders of the network. Back in 2020, during Trump's first term, the US Department of Justice indicted him, President Maduro and several other Venezuelan officials on charges of "narco-terrorism."

Experts also find it difficult to assess how involved Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro himself is in the drug trade.

“It is more likely that politicians allow criminal gangs to operate,” says Günter Mayhold of the Institute for Latin America at the Free University of Berlin. “In return, the cartels share in the profits from the drug trade and keep violence within limits that do not harm the government.”

The government in Washington may have access to specific information. The regime in Caracas, meanwhile, openly calls itself a narco-state. It has offered a record $50 million bounty on Maduro's head.

How did Venezuela react?

Not surprisingly, President Maduro used the attack to oppose the US's "imperialist policies", issuing warnings to Washington:

"This week I will activate a special plan with more than 4,5 million militia members across the country: militias that are prepared, activated and armed."

Previously, government officials in Caracas claimed that the video, released by the US government, was fake and generated by artificial intelligence.

However, Deutsche Welle's fact-checking team found no evidence that the footage was created using artificial intelligence.

Venezuelan opposition leader Corina Machado welcomed the US action. She described the attack as legitimate pressure and interpreted it as a direct blow to the Venezuelan government: "The regime is very close to falling," Machado said.

Neither Trump's threats, nor Machado's reaction, are likely to sway the Venezuelan government, says Mayhold: "Although most Venezuelans no longer support Maduro, a threat to their sovereignty would likely lead many to side with the government."

Does Trump want to overthrow the regime in Venezuela?

There are at least eight US warships in the southern Caribbean, including a cruiser, two destroyers, a nuclear-powered submarine and several amphibious assault ships. Indeed, the US government has made it clear in various ways that this could be just the beginning.

However, according to Trump, it's not just about Venezuela: "Please let this be a warning to anyone who thinks about bringing drugs into the United States of America."

US Democrat Juan Gonzalez, Biden's adviser for the Western Hemisphere, nevertheless warns: "I am increasingly afraid that the Trump administration could get involved in an intervention in Venezuela, which, frankly, would be disastrous."

Will there be a conflict between Maduro and Trump?

Günter Mayhold also believes that an American intervention in Venezuela would be disastrous. That's why he doesn't believe it will happen: "Trump will be wary of such an adventure."

Upon closer inspection, there is little indication of such a plan. One of Trump's main promises to voters is that he will not interfere in the internal affairs of other countries.

A power vacuum – as in Iraq or Libya – on one's own continent could trigger a new wave of migration northward. That would also be against Trump's interests.

And then there's the practical aspect: "What could eight ships accomplish in a highly militarized country of that size?" Mykhold asks. "What we're seeing here is a new phase of militarization of the US government's war on drugs."

Will Trump stop the drug trade?

Since the 1970s, the US, in partnership with local authorities, has tried in various ways to stop the flow of drugs from the south.

Sometimes they burned down the fields of coca growers in the Andes, then supported right-wing paramilitaries in their fight against left-wing guerrillas, who were heavily financed by the drug trade. And they constantly tried to cut off drug routes.

"But the cartels are very resourceful in finding alternative routes and means, which are less vulnerable to military action," reminds expert Mayhold.

There are many examples. In the 1970s, Colombian drug lords transported cocaine directly to Florida in small planes. Later, they collaborated with Mexican cartels who transported the drugs through tunnels into the United States.

Since the 1990s, gangsters have been transporting drugs to California by submarine.

Currently, Venezuelan ports and airports are considered safe places to transport drugs. And even if the routes through the Caribbean become too risky, the drugs will likely find another route to the United States.