How unique is the “autocratic alliance” really?

Behind the cordiality with which Xi Jinping hosted Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un last week, there are limits to what the European Union has described as an “autocratic alliance” that defies the West, diplomats, lawmakers and analysts said.

Although the gathering at China's military parade on September 3 has raised concerns among some world leaders that they are witnessing a major geopolitical shift, Beijing, Moscow and Pyongyang are far from forming a cohesive bloc, the sources said.

They point to the absence of a formal trilateral summit during the event and the uncertainty surrounding major economic arrangements, such as the gas pipeline project. The vague promises of closer cooperation may be more aimed at strengthening the position in potential negotiations with US President Donald Trump, they added.

“I don’t see this as declaring a new order,” said Victor Cha, head of the geopolitics and foreign policy department at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.

"It is a declaration of disorder and opportunism based on short-sighted self-interest," added Cha, who previously served as director for Asian affairs on the White House National Security Council.

Still, "appearances do matter," said one longtime US diplomat in Asia, who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the issue.

"While China, Russia and North Korea will undoubtedly continue to have differences in certain areas of policy, all three have made it clear that they are united by animosity towards the international system led by the US," the diplomat said, using an acronym for North Korea's official name.

Outgoing Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba used his farewell speech on Sunday to point out that the sight of nuclear-armed neighbors standing side by side underscores a serious security risk. European foreign policy chief Kaia Kallas has previously described the gathering as a growing "autocratic alliance."

Trump said in a post on the Truth website that Xi, Putin and Kim were conspiring against him, a comment that the Kremlin dismissed as ironic. A US official said Trump was “disappointed that some countries have sided with the Chinese” and that “America will reassess” the situation, but did not provide details.

Stumbling blocks

The parade was a diplomatic show of power for Xi Jinping, helped Putin counter the Western narrative of his international isolation over the war in Ukraine, and gave Kim tacit support for his banned nuclear weapons, analysts say.

However, although Xi held separate one-on-one talks with both Putin and Kim, the three leaders did not sit down together for a formal summit.

"It seems that China did not want to send a signal that formal trilateral cooperation was beginning," said Jenny Town, director of the Washington-based 38 North Project, which monitors developments in North Korea.

This suggests that a more direct show of force, such as joint military exercises, remains a distant possibility, analysts say.

It also contrasts with rival superpower, the United States, which relies on security alliances such as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), multilateral summits with Japan and South Korea, and the “Quad” group with Japan, Australia, and India, to project its global power.

On the economic front, there seemed to be more tangible results, led by a “binding memorandum” between Russia and China on a huge gas pipeline, announced during the summit.

However, despite Putin's promotion, China has not mentioned the pipeline in any of its official statements and has avoided questions on the subject at its regular press briefing.

The sticking points regarding the long-stalled project, which is supposed to transport gas some 3.000 kilometers through Siberia to China, remain price and terms.

Beijing is also refusing to open its winter wheat market, said Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut, who traveled with Putin to Beijing in the hope of securing access to the Chinese market.

Since the summit, there have been signs that China is taking steps to open its domestic bond market to Russian companies that have been denied access to Western capital markets. However, the Russian Finance Ministry has warned that it would prefer the bonds to be issued locally.

Tramp factor

The gathering of senior Chinese economic officials who participated in the first face-to-face meeting between Xi and Kim in six years suggests that trade was also on the agenda, said a senior foreign diplomat in Beijing, requesting anonymity.

Beijing's official statement on the talks also made no mention of "denuclearization" for the first time in many years, which some analysts saw as a major concession to Kim.

In response, South Korea's foreign ministry called on Beijing to play a constructive role in engaging Pyongyang in dialogue over its nuclear program.

Xi told Kim, in a letter sent after the summit, that China is ready to advance strategic communication with North Korea, Chinese state media reported on Tuesday.

But with contentious issues, such as the status of North Korean workers in China, remaining unresolved, the friendly tone may be more aimed at strengthening the position vis-à-vis Washington, at a time when Trump is seeking meetings with both leaders, officials said.

Trump is expected to travel to the region in late October for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in South Korea, which could open the way for talks with Xi amid tense trade negotiations between the world's two largest economies.

While the reclusive Kim shows no signs of willingness to resume talks with Trump, which collapsed in 2019, South Korean intelligence agencies are monitoring the possibility that this wave of diplomacy could lead to an opening, said South Korean lawmaker Lee Song-kwen.

Translation: NB