US President Donald Trump, the self-proclaimed peacemaker who campaigned for the Nobel Peace Prize, finally scored a diplomatic victory worthy of the cameras on Monday: World leaders traveled to Egypt to sign a ceasefire and hostage release agreement that he brokered between Israel and Hamas.
However, if he wants peace to last, Trump will, according to diplomats and analysts, need to keep up the pressure on the man whose support he will need in the next stages of his plan - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
For US presidents from Bill Clinton to Joe Biden, the stubborn Israeli leader has been difficult to work with, and even Trump administration officials have been frustrated by some Israeli military strikes that they see as undermining US policy, according to Reuters.
But this month, Trump managed to persuade Netanyahu to accept his framework for a broader peace deal, while convincing other Middle Eastern countries to persuade Hamas to return all Israeli hostages - its key trump card in the war.
However, Reuters points out that the harder work lies ahead.
Israel and Hamas remain deeply divided over many aspects of Trump's 20-point plan, and as Israel prepares for the next election, Netanyahu's strategy could change as he tries to keep his right-wing coalition together.
"We are entering a political year in which everything is tied to election campaigns, and Netanyahu's calculations could change - from giving in to pressure to trying to ensure his own political survival," Nimrod Goren, president of Mitvim, an Israeli foreign policy think tank, told the British agency.
The strength of Trump's peace plan, diplomats and analysts say, is also its weakness.
The document that forms the core of the agreement leaves much undefined, and neither side has actually agreed to all the details of each of the terms. It is this vagueness that was crucial for both sides to sign the agreement, but it also means that the hardest diplomatic work is yet to come.
Among the potential stumbling blocks to Trump's peace plan is a provision that Hamas disarm and not participate in any future administration of Gaza. While Hamas has generally agreed to Trump's plan, the movement's official response does not mention those specific conditions, and Hamas leaders have indicated that they still see themselves in a role of governing Gaza after the war.
“There are countless ways this could go wrong,” said John Alterman, a Middle East expert at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies and a former State Department official. “It’s hard to think of an international agreement that left so much to be worked out later.”
A senior US official suggested that Trump gained influence over Netanyahu in part due to his strong support for Israel on other important issues.
Trump's first administration officially recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and the Golan Heights as part of that country - two things the Israeli government had long wanted.
“One thing that President Trump has done with Israel ... is he hasn’t tried to be neutral,” the U.S. official said. “He’s basically stood shoulder to shoulder with Israel, 100 percent. But that’s exactly why he’s been able to help them move in the right direction.”
When it comes to applying political pressure on Netanyahu, Trump's track record is mixed.
In July, Israel bombed the Syrian Defense Ministry in Damascus, even as the United States sought to expand ties with the new Syrian government. For months, the US president provided Netanyahu with political cover for the Gaza operation, despite growing concern among European and Arab allies about the humanitarian situation.
But in recent weeks, a tougher Trump has emerged. He forced Netanyahu to call the Qatari leader and apologize after a botched September bombing that was intended to hit Hamas negotiators in the country. Ultimately, despite Netanyahu’s misgivings, he used the force of political authority to force the Israeli prime minister to sign his 20-point plan.
Right now, says Alterman, the Middle East expert, Trump is likely to be able to use his influence on Netanyahu, given his high popularity among Israeli citizens.
“Trump’s biggest advantage is that he is far more politically popular in Israel than Netanyahu,” Alterman said, “and he can either support Netanyahu’s political future — or sabotage it.”
In a speech to the Israeli parliament on Monday, Trump made a witty joke about the Israeli leader, making it clear that he felt no need to show him special respect.
"You see, Bibi, you can be a little nicer now, because you're not at war anymore," Trump said to laughter from those present.
But next year's elections could change Netanyahu's political calculus in ways that are difficult to predict.
Supporters of right-wing politicians Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich could, in theory, threaten Netanyahu's ruling coalition if they are angry enough about the decision to suspend military operations against Hamas.
Analysts warn that the Palestinian group's delay in disarming could lead right-wing elements of the coalition to pressure Netanyahu to resume military operations in Gaza, effectively destroying Trump's deal.
"We are concerned about the fact that Hamas continues to declare today that it will remain in power in Gaza," said Simcha Rotman, a member of the Religious Zionist party and Netanyahu's ruling coalition.
“We are not satisfied with any agreement that does not mean the complete capitulation of Hamas... We will not accept any partial victory.”
Another issue that could become a source of tension is a provision in the peace plan that envisages the possibility of a future Palestinian state - which, according to analysts, is difficult for most Israelis to accept after the cross-border attack by Hamas on October 7, 2023.
Dan Shapiro, a former US ambassador to Israel, said that if government and opposition politicians strongly focus on campaigning against the creation of such a state, it could limit the willingness of Arab countries to pressure Hamas to fulfill its obligations under the Trump deal.
"That was a very important element to ensure the support of Arab states to do their part," Shapiro said.
“If the political discourse becomes one of complete and permanent rejection of a Palestinian state, I think that could diminish the enthusiasm of the Arab parties to play their roles.
Delaying aid deliveries, Hamas on the streets of Gaza
Israel yesterday delayed aid deliveries to Gaza and kept the enclave's borders closed, while renewed Hamas units appeared on the streets and demonstrated their power by executing men on the spot, further darkening the prospects for implementing Trump's plan.
Three Israeli officials said Israel has decided to limit humanitarian aid deliveries to the devastated Gaza Strip and delay the opening of the border crossing with Egypt until at least Wednesday because Hamas has been too slow to hand over the bodies of slain hostages. The militant group says finding the bodies is extremely difficult.
Meanwhile, Hamas quickly regained control of the streets of urban areas of Gaza after a partial withdrawal of Israeli troops last week. In a video circulating on social media late Monday night, Hamas fighters brought seven men with their hands tied, forced them to kneel in a Gaza square and shot them from behind, as dozens of bystanders watched from nearby shops. A Hamas source confirmed that the video was filmed on Monday and that Hamas fighters took part in the executions.
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