Gaza faces new division

The division of Gaza into an Israeli-controlled area and another ruled by Hamas is becoming increasingly likely, multiple sources said, as efforts to implement US President Donald Trump's plan to end the war beyond a ceasefire falter.

Six European officials with direct insight into efforts to implement the next phase of the plan told Reuters that the process is effectively stalled and that it now appears likely that reconstruction will be limited to the area under Israeli control.

This, they warn, could lead to a multi-year division.

Under the first phase of the plan, which came into effect on October 10, the Israeli military currently controls 53 percent of the Mediterranean territory, including much of its agricultural land, as well as the city of Rafah in the south, parts of Gaza City and other urban areas.

Almost all of Gaza's two million residents are crammed into tent camps and the ruins of destroyed cities throughout the rest of the territory, which is under Hamas control.

Drone footage captured by Reuters in November showed the devastation in northeast Gaza City after the last Israeli attack before the ceasefire, following months of bombardment. The area is now divided into areas controlled by Israel and Hamas.

The next phase of the plan envisages Israel withdrawing further from the so-called Yellow Line agreed upon under the Trump plan, with the establishment of a transitional authority to govern Gaza, the deployment of a multinational security force to take control from the Israeli military, the disarmament of Hamas and the beginning of reconstruction.

However, the plan does not provide any timeframe or implementation mechanisms. Meanwhile, Hamas refuses to disarm, Israel rejects any involvement of the Western-backed Palestinian Authority, and the participation of multinational forces remains uncertain.

“We are still working out ideas,” Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi said at a security conference in Manama this month. “We all want this conflict to end, we all have the same goal. The question is how do we make it happen?”

Without strong US pressure to break the deadlock, the yellow line could become a de facto border dividing Gaza indefinitely, according to 18 sources, including six European officials and one former US official familiar with the negotiations.

The US has drafted a UN Security Council resolution that would give a two-year mandate to a multinational force and a transitional government. But governments remain hesitant to send in troops, according to ten diplomats.

European and Arab countries would likely not participate if their obligations extended beyond peacekeeping missions and involved direct conflict with Hamas or other Palestinian groups, the interlocutors said.

US Vice President J.D. Vance and Trump's influential son-in-law Jared Kushner said last month that reconstruction funds could quickly begin flowing into the Israeli-controlled area, even without moving to the next phase of the plan, with the idea of ​​creating model zones in which some Gazans could live.

Such American proposals, said Michael Wahid Hanna, director of the Americas program at the International Crisis Group think tank, indicate that the reality of division on the ground threatens to become “something much more long-term.”

A State Department spokesman said that while "tremendous progress" has been made in implementing Trump's plan, "more work is needed," without answering the question of whether the reconstruction would be limited to the area under Israeli control.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said Israel has no intention of reoccupying or administering Gaza, although far-right ministers in his cabinet have called for the reconstruction of settlements that were dismantled in 2005.

The military has also resisted calls for a permanent occupation of territory or direct control over civilians in Gaza. Instead, Netanyahu has pledged to maintain a buffer zone inside Gaza along the border to prevent a repeat of the October 2023 Hamas attack that ignited the war.

Line marked with yellow blocks

Israeli forces have erected large yellow concrete blocks to mark the withdrawal line and are building infrastructure in the part of Gaza they control. In the Shejaya neighborhood of Gaza City, the military last week took journalists to an outpost that was fortified after the ceasefire.

There, satellite images show, earth and building rubble have been bulldozed into steep mounds, creating a protected observation post for soldiers. A new layer of asphalt has also been laid.

Israeli military spokesman Nadav Shoshani said the soldiers were there to prevent fighters from crossing into the Israeli-controlled zone, adding that Israel would pull back further from the line once Hamas met conditions, including disarmament, and international security forces were in place.

“As soon as Hamas fulfills its part of the deal, we are ready to move forward,” Shoshani said.

In nearby Palestinian neighborhoods of the city, Hamas has reasserted its power in recent weeks, killing rivals. It has organized police to maintain security and workers to secure food stalls and clear passages through the devastated landscape using dilapidated excavators, Reuters reported.

"We really need to fill the security vacuum inside the Gaza Strip," German Foreign Minister Johann Wadeful said at a conference in Manama, calling for swift action and warning that a resurgence of Hamas could trigger a renewal of Israeli military operations in Gaza.

Hazem Qassem, a Hamas spokesman in Gaza City, said the group was ready to hand over power to a Palestinian entity made up of technical experts so that reconstruction could begin.

"All parts of Gaza equally deserve reconstruction," he said.

According to two European officials and a Western diplomat, one idea being discussed is the possibility of Hamas disarming under international supervision, rather than handing over its weapons to Israel or another foreign power.

European and Arab states want the Palestinian Authority, from the West Bank, to return to Gaza with a multinational force to take control from Hamas. Thousands of its police officers trained in Egypt and Jordan are ready to deploy, but Israel opposes any PA involvement.

Reconstruction under Israeli occupation

Six European officials said that unless there is a significant change in Hamas or Israeli attitudes, or US pressure on Israel to accept the role of the Palestinian Authority and a path to statehood, they do not see how Trump's plan can progress beyond a ceasefire. "Gaza must not remain stuck in anyone's country between peace and war," British Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper said at a conference in Manama.

Gaza City resident Salah Abu Amr, 62, said that if there is no progress in disarming Hamas and reconstruction begins across the Yellow Line, people might consider moving there. But the reality of a divided Gaza is hard to imagine, he added.

“Will we all be able to cross into that part? Or will Israel have the right to veto some of us,” he asked. “Will they also divide families into good people and bad people?”

It is still unclear who would finance the reconstruction of parts of Gaza under Israeli occupation, with Gulf states reluctant to get involved without the participation of the Palestinian Authority and a clear path to statehood, which Israel opposes. The reconstruction cost is estimated at $70 billion.

Any de facto territorial division of Gaza would further set back Palestinian aspirations for an independent state that would also include the West Bank, and worsen the humanitarian catastrophe of a people who lack adequate housing and whose survival depends almost entirely on aid.

“We must not allow the division of Gaza,” said Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi. “Gaza is a single entity and it is part of the occupied Palestinian territory.”

Palestinian Foreign Minister Varsen Aghabekian Shaheen also rejected the territorial division of Gaza and said that the Palestinian Authority is ready to assume "full national responsibility."

"There can be no real reconstruction or lasting stability without full Palestinian sovereignty over the territory," she told Reuters.

Translation: NB