A few days before the anniversary of the ceasefire that ended the war between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah on November 27, 2024, tensions have escalated again.
Over the weekend, Israel bombed Beirut, the capital of Lebanon, despite a ceasefire. The Israeli government said it did so to assassinate Haitham Ali Tabtabi, the chief of staff of the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah.
An Israeli airstrike hit an apartment building in a densely populated suburb of Beirut, with Lebanese authorities saying at least five people were killed and 28 wounded.
It was the first time in months that Israel had targeted the Lebanese capital. The weekend bombing followed a series of other Israeli airstrikes on southern Lebanon last week, which Lebanese health officials said killed at least a dozen people.
However, a local resident, who spoke to DW on condition of anonymity after last week's attack, denied the Israeli military's claims that there were weapons or explosives in the area. "The area is populated by civilians," the man said, adding that "a sports field was leveled" and that "there were many casualties."
Another resident confirmed that the location hit was a popular sports venue. "We go there often," he said. "The claims that Hamas is present there are completely false."
The military wing of Hezbollah, which is designated a terrorist organization by several countries, including the United States and Germany, has rejected the Israeli accusations.
"A year later, the ceasefire is essentially in disarray," Sami Halabi, director of the Beirut-based think tank Institute for Alternative Politics, told DW.
"It is taking place because all parties to the conflict are using it for their own ends," he said, adding that, in his opinion, the coming year will be crucial: "Either Lebanon will resolve the key issues, or the ceasefire will collapse and the country will return to open conflict."
What led to the ceasefire?
On October 8, 2023, Hezbollah began targeting northern Israel in support of Hamas, which had carried out a terrorist attack on Israel the day before, which then sparked the two-year Gaza War.
During the ensuing 12 months of conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, some 60.000 Israelis and around 100.000 Lebanese were forced to evacuate from the border areas. In Israel, most have not yet returned due to ongoing security risks, while in Lebanon, widespread destruction and continued airstrikes make the return of many people almost impossible.
On the night of September 30, 2024, the conflict escalated into a two-month war in Lebanon, including an Israeli ground invasion. By January 9, 2025, more than 4.200 people had been killed, many of them Lebanese civilians, according to the Lebanese Ministry of Health. The World Bank estimates the cost of reconstruction at approximately $11 billion.
During the war, Israel significantly weakened Hezbollah, killing several of the organization's leaders and reducing much of its military capabilities.
Yet Hezbollah remains a key member of Iran's "axis of resistance" - a coalition of diverse groups and states that call for the destruction of the US and Israel - and continues to advocate for the disappearance of Israel. Israel accuses Hezbollah of regrouping and rebuilding its weapons stockpile.
What is stated in the ceasefire agreement?
The peace agreement, reached on November 27, 2024, with the mediation of France and the US, reflects the key provisions of UN Resolution 1701 of 2006.
It calls for Israel to withdraw from Lebanese territory, although Israeli troops remain stationed at five locations in Lebanon. This week, Beirut filed an urgent complaint with the UN Security Council over the construction of the new wall. According to the UN peacekeeping force (UNIFIL), the wall "overlaps" with the so-called Blue Line, which marks the border between Israel and Lebanon, and restricts Lebanese access to more than 4.000 square meters of their land.
Israel has denied that the wall, whose construction began in 2022, enters Lebanese territory.
The ceasefire also calls for the withdrawal of Hezbollah forces north of the Litani River, Lebanon's largest river. Hezbollah says it has since pulled its forces back behind that line.
The ceasefire also stipulates that Hezbollah must disarm. However, Hezbollah officials claim that this applies only to areas south of the Litani River, not all of Lebanon. The militia also refuses to disarm as long as Israeli troops remain on Lebanese territory.
In August, Hezbollah even threatened to start a civil war if the Lebanese government insisted on its disarmament.
The peace plan also foresees the Lebanese army deploying its troops alongside the multinational UNIFIL peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon.
On Thursday, Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam announced that plans to demilitarize the south by the end of the month were "on track."
"We need to recruit more people into the military, we need to better equip the military, and we need to be able to increase the salaries of the military," Salam told Bloomberg.
But political analyst Sami Halabi argues that key issues remain unresolved. "The ceasefire agreement is drafted in the same way that the Trump administration has approached its 'peace agreements' in multiple conflicts – just a list of points presented as a framework," he said.
"While it can be useful to have something to revolve around, the problem is that after a year of such 'revolving' the situation in Lebanon is nowhere near a solution," says Halabi.
In his opinion, a ceasefire can only lead to stability or lasting peace if it is part of a broader process in which the Lebanese state gradually takes control of national defense and is sufficiently equipped to ensure the deterrence of threats.
"This could happen through strengthening military capacity, as in Egypt, or through a broader political agreement," he said, adding that "either or both could work, but the status quo is not working."
Could direct negotiations mark a turning point?
The ceasefire also ended a long-standing political vacuum in Lebanon with the election of President Joseph Aoun in January 2025.
Earlier this month, Aoun said Lebanon had "no other choice" but to participate in the talks. "The language of negotiations is more important than the language of war," he told reporters, adding: "We have seen what war has brought us."
Prime Minister Salam echoed Aoun's position, expressing hope that Lebanon could secure American support for a diplomatic solution.
Until now, direct negotiations between Lebanon and Israel have been virtually ruled out as an option – except for a brief instance in 1983 – due to the fact that the two countries have no diplomatic relations. In fact, they have technically been at war since 1948.
"Lebanon is under increasing pressure – from Israel militarily and from the US diplomatically – to accept compromises it previously considered unacceptable," Lina Hatib, a fellow at the London-based think tank Chatham House, wrote this month.
That perspective, she added, threatens Hezbollah itself, because it "pave the way for a future peace agreement with Israel, which would remove Hezbollah's self-proclaimed raison d'être."
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