Argentina and Syria defy chaos

Every year at Christmas, The Economist announces the country of the year. Not the happiest one - it would almost always be a Scandinavian country, which would make the competition boring and predictable. Nor the most influential one - it would usually be a superpower. Instead, we aim to identify the country that has made the most progress, whether economically, politically or in some other, fundamentally important way.

It’s been a turbulent year: President Donald Trump has disrupted global trade, while horrific conflicts have left deep scars in places like Gaza and Sudan. Still, some countries have navigated the turbulent waters. Canada elected a sober technocrat as prime minister, replacing a populist, and has resisted American intimidation. Voters in Moldova have rejected a pro-Russian party despite threats and disinformation from Moscow. Mr. Trump has brokered a fragile truce between Israel and the Palestinians.

South Korea has recovered from a serious threat to its democracy. A year ago, President Yun Suk-yeol tried to impose a state of emergency, sending in the military to shut down parliament. But lawmakers, protesters and institutions remained steadfast, and this year the disgraced former president was put on trial for sedition.

Another example of how to deal with violent attempts to overthrow the constitutional order was Brazil. In September, a Brazilian court sentenced Jair Bolsonaro, the former president who lost the 2022 election, claimed he was rigged, and attempted a coup to stay in power to 27 years in prison. Brazil has been plagued by coups for much of the 20th century; this is the first time a coup plotter has been properly punished. The government also managed to slow the rate of deforestation in the Amazon in 2025, thereby contributing to slowing climate change. However, its foreign policy favoritism towards the Kremlin has seriously tarnished that performance.

The two strongest contenders this year are very different: Argentina and Syria. Argentina’s progress has been economic. Its president, Javier Milley, launched sweeping free-market reforms in 2023, hoping to shake the country out of more than a century of statism and stagnation. Such reforms – lifting price controls, reining in spending and abandoning distorting subsidies – are extremely difficult precisely because they are extremely painful; many previous reformers have failed to do so. Yet Mr Milley stuck to his “chainsaw” in 2025, and voters stuck with him. So did America, offering a $20 billion bailout to avert a financial crisis.

The results have been impressive. Inflation has fallen from 211 percent in 2023 to about 30 percent today. The poverty rate has been reduced by 21 percentage points compared to last year. The budget has been brought under control. Milley has moved towards a free-floating peso exchange rate and lifted most capital controls.

Argentina could still stumble, though. The Peronists, who have mismanaged it for decades, are eager to return to power if Milley makes a misstep. And the president has many flaws: he is intolerant of critics and plagued by corruption scandals. But if his reforms hold up, they could permanently change Argentina's course - and offer hope to economic reformers around the world.

Syria’s progress, by contrast, has been political. Just over a year ago, it was ruled by Bashar al-Assad, a dictator backed by Iran and Russia. His prisons were packed with political prisoners, and dissent was punishable by torture or death. Thirteen years of civil war have claimed more than half a million lives. Assad’s forces have used chemical weapons and so-called barrel bombs indiscriminately against civilians. More than six million people have fled the country.

Then, in early December 2024, the tyrant himself was forced to flee as rebels seized power. At the time of our country of the year selection, it was too early to get a clear picture of what the new Syria might look like. Its new ruler, Ahmed al-Shara, was a jihadist. Many feared he would impose a grim Islamist theocracy or that Syria would slide into chaos. In reality, neither happened. Women are not required to cover up or stay at home. Partying and even alcohol are allowed. Shaara has pulled off a series of positive surprises, holding the country together and building good relations with the United States and the Gulf states. As Western sanctions are eased, the economy is starting to recover.

Huge problems remain. Paramilitaries have carried out two horrific local massacres of minorities, killing 2.000 people. Sharjah rules in a clannish manner, and in such a fragile country, much can still go wrong.

Yet Syria is much happier and more peaceful in 2025 than it was in 2024. Fear is no longer pervasive. Life is not easy, but for most people it is more or less normal. Voting “with their feet,” some three million Syrians have returned home. Our choice this year also goes to Syria.

Translation: NB