When describing US President Donald Trump's governance style, and particularly his relations with other countries, two words are often mentioned: "unpredictable" and "transactional." The latter suits some US allies, partners, and even adversaries, while the former has shaken even some of Washington's closest and longest-standing alliances over the past year.
In an attempt to take stock of which countries have benefited the most and least from the second Trump administration, the American magazine Foreign Policy (FP) deliberately left out the parties to the two biggest conflicts that Trump is trying to mediate - between Israel and Hamas, and between Russia and Ukraine. Both of these conflicts remain largely unresolved (although the first two sides agreed to a ceasefire in October), and Trump's unpredictability has led to his positions on these conflicts changing over the past year.
FP singled out five countries that played the "Trump game" most successfully, as well as five more that were among the losers.
Winners
China
It may seem odd to include America's biggest adversary and main strategic competitor among the winners, but it is hard to argue that China has suffered serious damage during Trump's second administration - especially compared to the grueling trade war and technological restrictions of his first term, an approach that the Joe Biden administration has continued and even expanded.
Some of those technological restrictions, including the sale of semiconductor chips to China and a proposed US ban on the Chinese tech platform TikTok, now appear to be under discussion again, if not already directly eased.
Trump dramatically increased tariffs on Chinese exports to the US early in his term, but then, after an October meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea, he began to reduce them just as quickly. That meeting produced a trade truce that was largely seen as slightly more favorable to China, which used its huge bargaining power, control of key minerals and rare earths, to persuade Trump to back down.
Trump's new National Security Strategy has not made as many concessions on Taiwan as China may have hoped or as China hawks in Washington may have feared, but the strategy's emphasis on "state sovereignty" and recognition of "countries whose systems of government and societies differ from our own" suggest a realism that Beijing is likely to welcome.
Saudi Arabia
Trump has long made clear his fondness for Saudi Arabia, perhaps most notably by choosing it as the destination of his first presidential trip abroad during both his first and second terms.
Washington and Riyadh now seem closer than ever. Trump literally rolled out the red carpet for Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in November, in a visit accompanied by great fanfare that led to a series of agreements aimed at further linking the two countries' economies.
The White House has now designated Saudi Arabia as a major non-NATO ally — strengthening defense cooperation, albeit without a security guarantee — and has advanced plans to sell the country F-35 fighter jets. The two countries also plan to join forces in other sectors, with expanded cooperation in artificial intelligence, nuclear energy and key minerals. “A stronger and more capable alliance will advance the interests of both countries and serve the highest interests of peace,” Trump said.
Syria
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa became the first Syrian head of state in nearly eight decades to visit the White House when Trump hosted him there in November, underscoring a stunning turnaround for the former al-Qaeda militant, for whom the US had put a $10 million bounty on his head until the end of 2024.
However, Sharia's rise after the overthrow of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad goes beyond mere symbolism - during that visit, he managed to convince Trump to lift most of the US sanctions on Syria, and Congress voted in December to repeal legislation that kept some of the sanctions in place.
Although tensions between Syria and Israel remain high, there is every indication that the Syrian government continues to enjoy Trump’s support. “It is very important that Israel maintains a strong and honest dialogue with Syria, and that nothing happens that would hinder Syria’s evolution into a prosperous nation,” Trump wrote on Truth Social on December 1. “The new President of Syria, Ahmed al-Shara, is working diligently to ensure that good things happen and that both Syria and Israel have a long and prosperous relationship together.”
Trump continued to praise Shaara even after the US military struck multiple Islamic State targets in Syria on December 19, in retaliation for an attack that killed two American soldiers days earlier. He also wrote on Truth Social that the Syrian president “fully supported” the strikes and was “working very hard to make Syria great again.”
Argentina
Trump has never hidden his support for Argentine President Javier Milley. He has praised Milley, a political ally, as his “favorite president” and someone who is “MAGA through and through.” “I love him because he loves Trump,” Trump said in 2024.
Their loyalty goes so far that when Argentines went to the polls in October to vote in the midterm elections, Trump publicly endorsed Milley — and then made a massive $20 billion aid package for the country conditional on his election success. “If he doesn’t win, we’re leaving,” Trump said.
Milley won. But Trump's planned $20 billion bailout has drawn strong reactions in Washington, among both Democrats and Republicans, and economic experts have questioned the cost-effectiveness of the White House's strategy. Perhaps that explains why U.S. banks have now shelved the $20 billion plan and are instead considering a smaller, shorter-term arrangement.
Pakistan
During his first term, Trump attacked Pakistan and its leaders for "lies and deception," accusing them of providing "safe haven to the terrorists we hunt in Afghanistan, with little help," and suspended most US military aid to the country.
A few weeks into his second term, Pakistan's role in capturing the mastermind of a terrorist attack in Afghanistan gave Trump an early victory and opened the door for Islamabad to the new US president. What followed was flattery, dialogue and deals - on everything from cryptocurrencies to key minerals to the Nobel Peace Prize - in which Trump's personal fondness for the all-powerful Pakistani army chief, Asim Munir, appeared to play a significant role.
“Our relationship looks as good as ever,” Pakistan’s ambassador to Washington, Rizwan Saeed Sheikh, told Foreign Policy earlier this year. “We have to justify it.”
Losers
Venezuela
Venezuela and its controversial President Nicolas Maduro have faced months of U.S. military strikes on ships off its northern coast, the possibility of a ground invasion and threats of regime change. Venezuela has been the target of Trump’s fury over what his administration has called “narco-terrorists.” Washington has accused Maduro of colluding with cartels to flood the United States with drugs — even as Trump pardoned a former Latin American leader who was actually convicted of drug trafficking. That campaign culminated in early 2026, when U.S. special forces carried out a raid that captured Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, and brought them to the United States. Maduro is being held in New York and is expected to stand trial on charges that include narco-terrorism and drug trafficking.
Trump justified the operation by claiming that Maduro was illegitimately in power due to electoral fraud and said that the United States would “for now” manage Venezuela and its oil resources, the largest in the world, but gave few details about what such an arrangement would look like in practice. In Caracas, Maduro’s allies retained control of the institutions and security apparatus, describing the move as a “kidnapping” and an attempt to seize oil. Vice President Delcy Rodriguez took over as interim leader, but said Maduro would remain president. Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello said the government would remain united behind Maduro. Fear and uncertainty reign in the country, while calls are coming from around the world for a diplomatic solution to the crisis in accordance with international law, along with questions about the legality of the head of state’s arrest.
The governments of Spain, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Uruguay said the US actions "set an extremely dangerous precedent for peace and regional security and endanger the civilian population."
Iran
The costly and layered deterrence strategy that Iran has been building for decades has suffered a devastating blow this summer. During a 12-day bombing campaign in June, an Israeli military offensive severely crippled Iran’s air defenses and ballistic missile infrastructure. But it was the brief involvement of the U.S. military on June 22, when B-2 bombers dropped bunker-busting bombs on three key Iranian nuclear facilities, that is widely believed to have set Iran back on its ultimate, most important deterrent card. And while it seems likely that Tehran smuggled some of the enriched uranium in advance, and Iranian scientists retain the technical expertise to, at least theoretically, restore it, it will be several years before Iran can regain the status of a state on the brink of nuclear weapons. That is, if the Iranian regime chooses to go down that path at all.
American regional policy is likely to influence Tehran’s nuclear strategic calculations. Other moves by the Trump administration have further weakened Iran’s regional position. These include the rise of Syrian President Ahmed al-Shara, who toppled the regime of Bashar al-Assad, a close Iranian ally, just a year ago; the continued Israeli-American pressure to disarm Lebanon’s Hezbollah; and a series of new US sanctions imposed this year against Iran’s oil smuggling network and illicit finance sector. These sanctions have further tightened the financial stranglehold on the Iranian regime, which has limited capacity to deal with enormous public discontent.
The latest wave of protests, sparked by rising inflation, has further exposed the regime's internal vulnerabilities. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has said that Iran "will not yield to the enemy" and that the rebels must be "put in their place," while human rights organizations have reported a sharp increase in arrests and more deaths, and Trump has further raised tensions by threatening that the United States will come to the aid of the protesters.
South Africa
The South African government has been taking blows from all sides this year from the Trump administration. There are several factors fueling the White House's animosity toward Africa's largest economy, some of which are fictional and some of which are real.
Trump has falsely accused Afrikaners, the white descendants of European colonizers in South Africa, of being subjected to genocide, and has granted them collective refugee status. But other disagreements with the Trump administration are based on facts, such as the South African government’s policies aimed at reducing long-standing racial inequality and Pretoria’s filing of genocide cases against Israel at the International Court of Justice over its treatment of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. Many U.S. officials are also frustrated by South Africa’s continued reluctance to take a clear position on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as well as its friendly relations with Iran.
Trump responded to these criticisms by cutting off hundreds of millions of dollars in foreign aid to South Africa, much of which was intended to help the country fight HIV and AIDS. The US president also imposed a 30% tariff on imports from South Africa and said that South Africa would not be welcome at the G20 summit that the US is hosting in Florida next December.
Canada
Relations between Washington and Ottawa hit an all-time low earlier this year, after Trump repeatedly threatened to annex the United States' northern neighbor and turn it into the 51st state.
The Trump administration no longer seems so obsessed with such territorial expansion. But it has continued to be extremely aggressive toward one of the United States’ largest trading partners, which remains subject to high U.S. tariffs across a wide range of sectors. Trump has pointed to Ottawa’s alleged role in smuggling fentanyl into the United States, claims unsupported by U.S. Customs and Border Protection data, and trade talks between the two countries have collapsed.
The US ambassador to Canada, Pete Hoekstra, has also echoed Trump's belligerent rhetoric. In October, he allegedly fired a profanity-laced salvo at Ontario's trade representative, Canadian media reported.
And in November, US Vice President J.D. Vance, in a post on X.com, fiercely attacked Canadian political leaders, accusing them of undermining the standard of living in their country by promoting diversity through what he called “immigration madness.”
Indija
Pakistan's rise in Trump's eyes is all the more striking because it has coincided with US relations with its bitter rival, India, falling to their lowest point in more than two decades.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi — whom Trump has repeatedly called a “great friend” and with whom he developed a close relationship during their first terms in office — was among the first world leaders to visit Washington after Trump was re-elected, and it seemed likely that they would pick up where they left off. But India’s refusal to give Trump credit for brokering a ceasefire with Pakistan after a brief armed conflict between the two neighbors in May, coupled with Trump’s alleged displeasure with India’s trade policies and purchases of Russian oil, has left New Delhi facing Trump’s tariffs, which are among the highest in the world.
Still, there are several indications that the foundations of the US-India relationship remain solid. Their two militaries recently signed a 10-year defense cooperation agreement, and Trump’s new National Security Strategy calls on Washington to “continue to advance our trade (and other) relationship with India.”
However, with the 50 percent tariffs still in place and a trade deal still elusive, those looking at the outside picture can't help but admit that it doesn't look good.
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