Mexico becomes key fuel supplier to Cuba, it is unknown whether the US will accept it

As the United States prepares to take control of Venezuelan oil and President Donald Trump's administration toughens its stance on Cuba, Mexico has emerged as a key fuel supplier to Havana.

It's a role that could further complicate already strained relations with the Trump administration, although the Mexican government insists that exports to Cuba have not increased.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum acknowledged yesterday that "with the current situation in Venezuela, Mexico has become an important supplier" of crude oil to Cuba, but claimed that "no more oil is being sent than it was and there are no new shipments."

She added that these shipments are made on a "contract" basis or as "humanitarian aid", but did not offer specific export figures.

Following the 1959 revolution that overthrew dictator Fulgencio Batista, the United States imposed a trade embargo on Cuba in response to the nationalization of U.S.-owned assets. Under the embargo, which many countries, including Mexico, long condemned, Cubans experienced economic and energy crises, leading to the migration of hundreds of thousands of Cubans, particularly to the United States.

Power outages lasting up to eight hours and long lines at gas stations are routine across Cuba.

It is unclear whether any country would be allowed to increase oil shipments to Cuba after the US attack on Venezuela, and the Mexican government has avoided commenting on its future plans.

Exports to Cuba represent a very small percentage of total exports - 3,3 percent, and their economic viability is questionable as the production of the Mexican company Pemex continues to decline.

From January to September 30, 2025, Mexico shipped 19.200 barrels per day to Cuba: 17.200 barrels of crude oil and 2.000 barrels of refined products, according to the latest report filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission by state-owned oil company Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex).

Jorge Pinjon, of the Energy Institute at the University of Texas at Austin, which tracks supplies using oil-tracking services and satellite technology, shared similar data with The Associated Press this week for the same period. He tracked 22.000 barrels per day and said that figure fell to 7.000 barrels after U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited Mexico City in September 2025.

In the past three months, Maduro's government has exported an average of 35.000 barrels a day to Cuba, about a quarter of the island's total demand, according to Piñón.

He doesn't think Mexico will increase its shipments because "the US government would go crazy."

"There will be more pressure from the United States regarding Cuba," said Oscar Ocampo of the Mexican Institute of Competitiveness, adding that oil will predictably be one of the areas under pressure, a view shared by many experts.

Mexico has long sent oil to Cuba, especially during periods of power outages and social unrest.

After major demonstrations in Cuba in 2021, Mexico sent one of its largest humanitarian aid shipments, which included 100.000 barrels of fuel. In October 2024, it sent more than 400.000 barrels in just a few days after severe power outages in Cuba, according to figures Piñón reported at the time.

"The way it was done also encourages non-transparency," Ocampo said, because from 2023, shipments will be made through Pemex's private subsidiary, Gasolinas Bijenestar, whose financial situation is "not transparent."

In a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Pemex said the shipments to Cuba were worth approximately $400 million and were “sales” made through contracts at market prices. But Ocampo says it is unclear whether that was the case or whether they were shipments at a discount, with some kind of “quid pro quo” – perhaps the deployment of doctors – or as humanitarian aid.

The foreseeable lack of profitability in supplying Cuba with oil comes as 2025 is expected to be the year in which Pemex will export its lowest amount of crude, "less than 600.000 barrels per day, when just a few years ago we were exporting more than a million," Ocampo said.