As protests against the regime in Iran spread rapidly and foreign pressure mounted, the clerical establishment appears unable to cope with what has become a crisis of legitimacy at the very heart of the Islamic Republic.
The demonstrations, which began in Tehran last month, have spread to all 31 Iranian provinces.
Iran was largely cut off from the outside world yesterday after authorities shut down the internet to quell growing unrest, while videos on social media showed buildings on fire during anti-government protests that raged in several cities across the country.
Human rights organizations have already documented dozens of protesters killed in almost two weeks, and while Iranian state television showed clashes and fires, the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported that several police officers had been killed overnight.
In a televised address, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed not to back down, accusing the protesters of acting on behalf of opposition groups in exile and the United States, while the public prosecutor threatened death sentences.
The unrest has not yet reached the intensity of previous waves of protests in recent years, such as those sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini while in custody for allegedly violating Islamic dress codes. However, the authorities appear more vulnerable due to the difficult economic situation and the aftermath of last year's war with Israel and the United States.
Although the initial protests were focused on the economy, after the rial currency lost half its value against the dollar last year and inflation exceeded 40 percent in December, the protests have over time transformed to include slogans directly directed against the government.
The protests now include others - mostly young men, as opposed to the women and girls who played a key role in the protests after Amina's death.
The internet shutdown has sharply reduced the amount of information entering and leaving the country, and coincided with calls from abroad for new protests, issued by Reza Pahlavi, the son of the last Iranian shah who was overthrown in the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
"It's not just the rial that's collapsing, it's also confidence," said Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran program at the Middle East Institute in Washington.
The authorities have tried to maintain a dual approach to the unrest, saying that the protests over the economy are legitimate and will be responded to with dialogue, while responding to some demonstrations with tear gas amid violent street clashes.
"I just want a normal life"
Nearly five decades after the Islamic Revolution, Iran's religious rulers are struggling to bridge the gap between their priorities and the expectations of a young society, Reuters reports.
“I just want to live a peaceful, normal life… Instead, they (the rulers) insist on a nuclear program, support for armed groups in the region and maintaining hostility towards the United States,” Mina, 25, told Reuters by telephone from Kuhdasht, in the western province of Lorestan.
"Those policies may have made sense in 1979, but not today. The world has changed," said this unemployed girl with a university degree.
A former senior official from the reformist wing of the establishment told Reuters that the Islamic Republic's key ideological pillars - from its imposed dress code to its foreign policy choices - are not well received by those under 30, who make up almost half the population.
"The younger generation no longer believes in revolutionary slogans - they want to live freely," he said.
The mandatory hijab, which was a cornerstone of the protests following Amini's death, is now being enforced selectively. Many Iranian women now openly refuse to wear it in public - breaking with a tradition that has long defined the Islamic Republic.
In the ongoing protests, many demonstrators are venting their anger over Tehran's support for militants in the region, chanting slogans such as: "No Gaza, no Lebanon, long live Iran," indicating frustration with the establishment's priorities.
Weakening influence in the region
Tehran's regional influence has been weakened by Israeli attacks on its allies and proxies - from Hamas in Gaza to Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and militias in Iraq - as well as by the overthrow of a close Iranian ally, Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad.
A video posted on the X network, whose authenticity was confirmed by Reuters, shows protesters in Mashhad, Iran's second-most populous city in the northeast of the country, removing a large Iranian flag from its flagpole and tearing it up.
Other footage confirmed by Reuters this week showed people clashing with security forces in Tehran's Grand Bazaar, while in Abdanan, a city in southwestern Ilam province, protesters marched through the streets to cheers.
No easy way out for the supreme leader
Vatanka of the Washington-based Middle East Institute said that Iran's clerical system has survived repeated cycles of protests thanks to repression and tactical concessions, but that strategy is reaching its limits.
"Change now seems inevitable; regime collapse is possible but not guaranteed," he said.
In other countries in the region, such as Syria, Libya, and Iraq, long-time leaders have fallen only after a combination of protests and military intervention.
US President Donald Trump said he could come to the aid of Iranian protesters if security forces fire on them.
“We are ready,” he wrote, without further explanation, on January 2, seven months after Israeli and American forces bombed Iranian nuclear facilities in a twelve-day war.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, facing one of the most precarious moments of his decades-long rule, responded by promising that Iran "will not yield to the enemy."
A former Iranian official said there was no easy way out for the 86-year-old leader, as his decades-old policies - building a network of proxy forces, evading sanctions and advancing a nuclear and missile program - were clearly falling apart.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu praised the protests, calling them "a crucial moment in which the Iranian people are taking their future into their own hands."
Within Iran itself, opinions are divided on whether foreign military intervention is inevitable or even possible, and even staunch critics of the government question whether it is desirable.
"Enough. For 50 years this regime has ruled my country. Look at the result. We are poor, isolated and frustrated," said a 31-year-old man in the central city of Isfahan, speaking on condition of anonymity.
When asked if he supported foreign intervention, he replied: "No. I do not want my country to suffer military coups again. Our people have suffered enough. We want peace and friendship with the world - without the Islamic Republic."
The Islamic Republic's exiled opponents, themselves deeply divided, believe their moment to overthrow the establishment may be drawing near and have called for new protests. But how much support they enjoy at home is uncertain.
Guard and army as two pillars of the regime
In a comment posted on the portal "Kill", author Dan Perry writes that Iran maintains not one, but two key coercive institutions - the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, as the ideological backbone of the regime and also responsible for internal repression, and the regular national army (Artesh), older than the Islamic Republic and less tied to clerical ideology.
Perry recalls that for decades the unwritten agreement was for Artash to remain politically aloof, while the Guard controlled internal order, but warns that any signal that the regular army was no longer prepared to suppress protests could dramatically change the situation.
He says the unrest and economic collapse are also increasing pressure within Artesh, whose officers command recruits from families directly affected by the crisis, while there are reports of quiet discontent spreading within the security apparatus, which - while not guaranteeing a split - shows that the cracks within the system are deepening.
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