After the United States arrested Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, Vladimir Putin was left without an ally and the strengthening of American "oil influence" is possible, but Moscow is already considering the possible gains that would come from dividing the world into spheres of influence, as promoted by Donald Trump.
Special forces arrested Maduro just eight months after the Russian president agreed to a strategic partnership with his "dear friend," and Trump said the US was temporarily taking control of Venezuela, which has the world's largest oil reserves.
Some Russian nationalists criticized the loss of an ally and compared the swift American operation to Russia's failure to take control of Ukraine in nearly four years of war.
But on another level, what Russia describes as Trump's "piracy" and "regime change" in the United States' "backyard" is more acceptable to Moscow - especially if Washington gets bogged down in Venezuela.
“Russia has lost an ally in Latin America,” a senior Russian source, who asked not to be named due to the sensitivity of the situation, told Reuters.
“But if this is an example of Trump’s Monroe Doctrine in action, as it appears to be, then Russia also has its own sphere of influence.”
Another Russian source said Moscow sees the US operation as a clear attempt to seize control of Venezuela's oil wealth and noted that most Western powers have not openly criticized the move.
Putin, as the British agency reminds us, has been trying to establish a Russian sphere of influence in the former Soviet republics of Central Asia, the Caucasus and Ukraine, an effort that Washington has opposed since the end of the Cold War.
Putin has not commented publicly on the US operation in Venezuela, although the Russian Foreign Ministry has called on Trump to release Maduro and called for dialogue. The Kremlin on Tuesday welcomed the appointment of Delcy Rodriguez as acting president of Venezuela, calling it a step towards ensuring peace and stability in the face of “open neocolonial threats and foreign armed aggression.”
Russian state media portrayed the operation as an American "kidnapping", reported Trump's statements that the US has "sick" neighbors, and recalled the American capture of military leader Manuel Noriega in Panama on January 3, 1990.
"The fact that Trump just 'stole' the president of another country shows that international law essentially does not exist - there is only the law of force - but Russia has known this for a long time," Sergei Markov, a former Kremlin adviser, told Reuters.
He said the modern Monroe Doctrine - which Trump has suggested could be updated as the "Donro Doctrine" - could be interpreted in different ways. "Is the United States really prepared to recognize Russian dominance over the former Soviet Union, or is it simply that the United States is so powerful that it will not tolerate any great power even in its vicinity?"
Alexei Pushkov, who chairs the Information Policy Commission in the Russian Federation Council, assessed that the American operation in Venezuela is a direct application of the American National Security Strategy, and portrayed it as an attempt to revive American supremacy and gain influence over even larger oil reserves.
For Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping, the fact that the US president is focused on the Western Hemisphere, and could get stuck there, seems more than acceptable, given that Russia is focused on Ukraine and China on Taiwan.
However, he said it risks a return to “the savage imperialism of the 19th century and, in effect, a revival of the concept of the Wild West - in the sense that the United States has regained the right to do whatever it wants in the Western Hemisphere”.
“Will triumph turn into disaster?” he asked.
For Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping, the fact that the US president is focused on the Western Hemisphere - and could be drawn in and stuck there - seems more than acceptable, given that Russia is focused on Ukraine and China on Taiwan.
A blow to Russia's image
However, some Russian nationalists criticized the loss of an ally so soon after the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria and compared the speed of the American operation to the much slower pace of the Russian advance in Ukraine.
Arrested Russian nationalist Igor Girkin said that the US showed in Venezuela how a great power should act when faced with a potential threat, and presented the American operation as part of an attempt to cut off oil flows to China.
“We have suffered another blow to our image - another country that was counting on Russian help not getting it,” Girkin said. “Having sunk up to our ears in the bloody swamp of Ukraine, we are practically incapable of anything else, especially since we cannot help Venezuela in the other hemisphere, which is right next to the United States.”
“Caracas in three hours!” taunted a Russian paramilitary network on Telegram. “Americans in Venezuela are reenacting the first hours of our special military operation in Ukraine in 2022.” The message between the lines was clear: Moscow should have done the same to Kiev and its president.
Putin irritates Trump
Maduro's arrest represents a geopolitical and energy blow for Putin - another one, just a year after his ally, Bashar al-Assad, sought refuge in Russia after being overthrown.
And as an additional threat, the US president hinted on his Truth Social network, ahead of the Venezuelan operation, that the US could intervene in Iran, another ally of Moscow, to "save" civilians if the repression of protesters - who have taken to the streets since December 28, 2025, due to the high cost of living and the incompetence of the authorities - becomes too brutal.
Trump, who has often shown indulgence and even admiration for the Russian leader's strength since returning to the White House in January 2025, now seems irritated by the former KGB officer. "I'm not thrilled with Putin. He's killing too many people," the billionaire said last Saturday from Palm Beach, Florida, as if it were news, notes the French "Monde".
Illustrating how little Washington respects Moscow, the US president said he had not even mentioned the attack on Venezuela during his conversation with Putin the previous Monday. The former investor probably did not appreciate his Russian counterpart trying to manipulate him, as Putin claimed over the phone - without any evidence - that Ukrainian drones had attacked his residence, in the Novgorod region, west of Moscow. The CIA denied the alleged Ukrainian airstrike a few days later.
More than Cold War-like competition, the prospect of profit and control over strategic energy resources appear to have driven the Trump administration’s actions in Caracas. And however openly Zelensky may dream of suddenly overthrowing the Russian autocrat, “Putin has nothing to fear from Trump,” Francois Asbourg, an advisor at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in London, told Le Monde.
“Nuclear weapons make all the difference,” said Tatyana Kastuyeva-Jean, director of the Russia Center at the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI). “The United States will never attack a nuclear power. This will only fuel the issue of nuclear proliferation among authoritarian and dictatorial regimes around the world,” she added. “Long live nuclear weapons!” Dmitry Medvedev, Putin’s former prime minister, repeated on Saturday.
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