Among the many goals of last week's US military operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was to send a message to China: stay away from America, Reuters writes in an analytical article tonight.
For at least two decades, Beijing has sought to build influence in Latin America, not only for economic opportunities but also to gain a strategic foothold on the doorstep of its main geopolitical rival.
China's advances – from satellite tracking stations in Argentina and a port in Peru to economic support for Venezuela – have been a source of irritation for successive US administrations, including that of Donald Trump.
Several Trump administration officials told Reuters that the US president's move against Maduro was partly aimed at curbing China's ambitions, and that the days of Beijing using debt to obtain cheap Venezuelan oil were "over."
"We don't want you there"
Trump made that message clear on Friday, expressing unease about China and Russia as "next-door neighbors," during a meeting with oil executives.
"I told China and I told Russia, 'We get along great with you, we love you very much, but we don't want you there - you won't be there,'" Trump said. He added that he would now tell China that they are "open for business" and can "buy all the oil they want from us, there or in the United States."
The success of the morning raid on January 3, in which US commandos stormed Caracas and captured the Venezuelan president and his wife, was a heavy blow to Chinese interests and prestige, according to Reuters.
The air defenses that US forces quickly disabled were supplied from China and Russia, and Trump said that between 30 million and 50 million barrels of sanctioned oil - much of which was previously destined for Chinese ports - would now be diverted to the US.
Analysts say Maduro's capture has exposed Beijing's limited ability to impose its will in the Americas.
The attack showed the gap between China's "great power rhetoric and its actual reach" in the Western Hemisphere, said Craig Singleton, a China expert at the think tank Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
"Beijing can protest diplomatically, but it cannot protect partners or assets when Washington decides to apply direct pressure," he said.
In a statement to Reuters, the Chinese Embassy in Washington said it rejected what it called the "unilateral, illegal and violent actions" of the United States.
"China and Latin American and Caribbean countries maintain friendly exchanges and cooperation. No matter how the situation develops, we will continue to be friends and partners," said embassy spokesman Liu Pengyu.
The White House did not respond to a request for comment.
Still, one administration official said that "China should be concerned about its position in the Western Hemisphere," adding that its partners in the region increasingly realize that Beijing cannot protect them.
Trump's unclear policy towards China
The Trump administration's policy towards Beijing appears contradictory - on the one hand, concessions aimed at calming the trade war, and on the other, increasingly strong American support for Taiwan, Reuters writes in the text.
The operation in Venezuela, however, acted as a shift in American policy in a harsher, more belligerent direction.
It was the timing of the American attack that further increased the embarrassment for Beijing.
Just hours before he was ousted, Maduro met with China's special envoy for Latin America, Qiu Xiaoqi, in Caracas, in what was his last public appearance before becoming a US prisoner.
The meeting, which was captured on camera as US forces secretly prepared to launch the operation, suggests Beijing was caught off guard, another US official said.
"If they had known, they wouldn't have done it so publicly," the official told Reuters.
For years, Beijing has poured money into Venezuelan refineries and infrastructure, providing an economic cushion after the US and its allies tightened sanctions in 2017.
Along with Russia, China has provided both funding and equipment to the Venezuelan military, including radar systems recently touted as capable of detecting advanced U.S. military aircraft. However, these systems did not prevent the raid, which U.S. officials said was carried out without any casualties.
"Every country in the world that uses Chinese defense equipment is now checking its air defenses and wondering how safe they really are from the United States," said Michael Sobolik, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute think tank.
"They also note how Chinese diplomatic assurances to Iran and Venezuela resulted in zero real protection when the US military arrived," he said.
According to a person familiar with intelligence on China's response, China is now analyzing what went wrong with those defense systems to strengthen its own capabilities.
China faces other regional risks
China could soon find itself under pressure at other points in the region.
It has sought to increase its influence in Cuba, and the United States suspects Beijing of conducting intelligence operations there. China denies this, but last year promised improved intelligence sharing with Havana.
In the days following the Venezuela operation, Trump said that US military intervention in Cuba, which has been hit by the loss of Venezuelan oil, was probably not needed because the island appeared poised to collapse on its own.
The Trump administration also continues to push Chinese companies out of managing ports around the Panama Canal, a key waterway connecting the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.
A State Department official said the United States "continues to express concerns" about Chinese influence near the canal but appreciates Panama's moves to limit it, including withdrawing from China's Belt and Road Initiative and reviewing a concession for Panama's ports contracted to Hong Kong-based CK Hutchinson.
Although China currently appears to be on the defensive in the region, analysts warn that a longer-term US military engagement in Venezuela or a worsening security situation there could open up space for Beijing to reassert itself.
Daniel Russell, a former senior State Department official now at the Asia Society, said Washington's dramatic shift under Trump - from a rule of law-based approach to a "Western Hemisphere-focused logic of spheres of influence" - could play into China's hands.
"Beijing wants Washington to accept that Asia is in China's sphere, and it undoubtedly hopes that the US will get bogged down in Venezuela," he said.
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