The current president of Venezuela is Delcy Rodriguez, who is playing a double game with the Americans. Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado is looking for an opportunity, but she can hardly do anything without connections to the military.
Last week, Delcy Rodriguez (55), a lawyer and for years the closest associate of head of state Nicolas Maduro, was sworn in. Just days after the US invasion of Venezuela and the capture of Maduro, she is – for now – the most powerful woman in Venezuela.
Rodriguez embodies Bolivarian socialism with pragmatic features, observers describe her. In her first public appearance as interim president, she was flanked by her brother Jorge Rodriguez, the speaker of parliament, as well as key figures in the military - a crucial factor in power.
It was a signal: the group that had until now shared power with Maduro remained united.
Balancing between Washington and Chavismo
But for how long? Venezuela has 2.500 generals and admirals, each with their own business interests. Rodriguez is not popular with the security forces, explains economist Manuel Sutherland, who has worked for institutions in Venezuela:
"The military has its own demands. It will be under great pressure and will have to negotiate hard so that it does not appear to be saving itself and leaving others in the lurch."
It's a balancing act. Rodriguez has to keep the hard core of Chavismo, especially Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello, under control. But he also has to satisfy Washington.
Rodriguez tries both, announcing “cooperation” with the US on oil trade, while at the same time charging that drug trafficking and human rights were just a pretext for the US attack. “The real reason is Venezuelan oil,” she says.
Donald Trump makes no secret of it. A few days after the attack, he announced that the US would receive up to fifty million barrels of crude oil from Venezuela, worth $2,8 billion.
He made it clear that if Rodriguez does not cooperate, he will pay a higher price than Maduro.
Nothing is played.
On the other side of political Venezuela stands a so-far outcast hope: Maria Korina Machado (57), an engineer. With her charisma ahead of the 2024 elections, she quickly rallied the vast majority of Venezuelans behind her and united the opposition.
Conservative, market liberal, member of the right wing of the opposition – her role model is Margaret Thatcher. Independent in her radicalism, she embodied the hope for political change.
However, the government banned the opposition leader from running in 2024. Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia ran instead. The opposition released election records that showed him as having won a clear victory with two-thirds of the votes.
The regime, however, declared Maduro the winner without providing any evidence. When the protests were brutally suppressed, Machado, faced with threats of arrest and murder, was forced to go underground.
Nobel Prize – shared with Trump
After eleven months in hiding, she only recently made her first public appearance in Oslo, at the Nobel Peace Prize ceremony. For many, this was a controversial decision by the Nobel Committee, since Machado had welcomed American military interventions.
She even dedicated the award to the American president and would gladly share it with him, as she recently stated in an interview with the American media network Fox:
"I would like to tell him personally that the Venezuelan people want to share this award with him. What he has done is historic, a big step towards a democratic transition."
But all her efforts seem to be in vain. Right now, when a change of government seems within reach, Trump is ignoring her. "She's a lovely woman, but she has no support or respect in her own country," Trump told reporters casually.
It's a slap in the face. But Machado is undeterred. She will travel to the US next week to meet with Trump, the White House chief of staff announced.
The military factor
The big problem, explains Venezuelan economist Sutherland, is that “Machado has no respect within the armed forces or within the Chavista movement.” And without the army, Venezuela cannot be governed, let alone implemented a change of government.
The armed forces have been deeply intertwined with politics and the economy for decades. They control key industries, the oil sector and food distribution. Maduro has indulged the generals with privileges, positions and lucrative jobs.
Rodriguez is playing that game too, aware that she cannot survive without the military leadership. Machado, on the other hand, has no access to the barracks. Her supporters are on the streets, not in the army.
Two women, two worlds: Delcy Rodriguez maneuvers between power blocs, with the army behind her – at least for now. Maria Corina Machado fights from exile, without a joker in her hands.
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