Reza Pahlavi, the son of the last Shah of Iran, has been in exile in the United States for almost half a century, from where he closely monitors the situation in his native Iran. And in this wave of protests, he is offering to lead a "transition" to democracy.
Since the overthrow of his father, the last Shah of Iran, his son Reza Pahlavi has spent almost half a century in exile in the United States.
During the uprisings against the Iranian regime in recent years, including the current one, Pahlavi has called for stronger action on the streets of Iran. As protests continue across the country, he presents himself as a secular and democratic voice supporting regime change.
Born in 1960, Pahlavi is the eldest son of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi and his wife Farah. He was officially proclaimed crown prince during his father's coronation in 1967, when he was seven years old.
However, Pahlavi has not been able to return to Iran since the US-allied monarchy was overthrown in 1979. The regime's fall came in response to political repression and social inequality and led to the establishment of an Islamic regime that still rules the country today.
At the time of the revolution, Pahlavi was training to become a military pilot in the United States. He later studied political science at the University of Southern California and settled permanently in the United States.
What is Pahlavi's plan?
"My life's mission is to create conditions so that the Iranian people can finally decide their own future in free and fair elections," Pahlavi told Deutsche Welle (DW) in 2023.
"The day Iranians go to the polls to decide their future, my mission will be fulfilled and my political role will be complete."
Although he publicly supported referendums that would allow Iranians to determine the form of future government for themselves, Pahlavi is simultaneously seeking to assume a role during that period of potential change, and even to lead the country in the long term.
During the twelve-day war between Israel and Iran in June last year, Pahlavi offered to be an interim leader – in the event of the collapse of the current authorities.
"Today I am here to put myself at the disposal of my compatriots and to lead them on the path of peace and democratic transition," he said at a press conference in Paris. "I do not seek political power, but I want to help our great nation find a path to stability, freedom and justice at this critical moment."
At that conference, he presented a series of plans for a democratic transition, based on the principles of "territorial integrity, individual freedoms and equality of all citizens, and the separation of religion and state."
"The final form of democracy we aspire to will be decided by the Iranian people in a national referendum," Pahlavi said.
He also indicated the possibility of Iran becoming a constitutional monarchy, similar to other states in which the monarch has a symbolic role, while the executive branch is held by parliaments and potentially a democratically elected head of state.
"The political figure of the manager"
After almost half a century in exile, Pahlavi and his family still enjoy the support of parts of the Iranian diaspora.
Many of the groups most vocal in supporting Pahlavi have a strong presence in the media and on social media, which are tightly controlled in Iran, making it difficult to assess the true mood of the population within the country.
Given that several generations of Iranians have never lived under a monarchy, the key question is whether the country would support its return in 2026.
Nevertheless, Pahlavi could play an important role in the transition from the Islamic Republic to the democratic state of Iran.
"At some point this movement will need a political figurehead, and even a personality around whom people will rally," Alex Vatanka, a regional security expert at the US-based Middle East Institute, told DW.
"No one has the name, recognition and lineage of Pahlavi, although he faces a difficult journey of convincing skeptics that he can be a reliable manager in Iran's post-Khamenei transition, and not someone who would immediately try to consolidate power in his favor."
Pahlavi's international moves could undermine his support within Iran. He has met with numerous world leaders in recent years, most notably with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a visit to Israel in the spring of 2023.
Given the decades-long hostility between Iran and Israel, this cooperation poses a problem for many Iranians, who see Netanyahu's government as an aggressor, especially after the 12-day war.
An imminent transition is unlikely.
There remains uncertainty about whether the current protests can topple the mullahs' regime in Iran. In messages on social media, Pahlavi has called for continued strikes and protests. More recently, his tone has been more cautious, especially after the crackdown on protesters.
Although the opposition is encouraged by the fact that merchants, who have historically always been sympathetic to the regime, have joined the protests in Tehran, observers remain skeptical.
"This Iranian state is deeply entrenched and in constant crisis mode, both institutionally and through its security structures," Arshin Adib-Moghadam of the Center for Iranian Studies at SOAS University in London tells DW.
"Protests alone will not lead to system change. Serious Iran experts know that much of what we hear today is a political mirage, far from the reality on the ground," he adds.
Vatanka is of a similar opinion, believing that the decisive factors will be the ability of the protesters to maintain a presence on the streets, pressure from those within the regime, as well as the influence of external actors such as the US and the Iranian diaspora.
"The question is not only whether the authorities in Iran can overcome these protests, but whether they have the strength to contain the next ones, which are waiting to erupt if this wave does not lead to the fall of the regime," Vatanka concludes.
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