Despite protests across Iran and years of external pressure, there are so far no signs of cracks in the Islamic Republic's elite security structure that could lead to the end of one of the world's most enduring governments.
Adding to the pressure on Iran's clerical rulers is the threat of military action by US President Donald Trump over Tehran's harsh crackdown on the protests. Trump yesterday urged Iranians to continue protesting and said help was "on the way," without providing details, as the Iranian establishment stepped up its crackdown on protesters.
“Iranian Patriots, KEEP PROTESTING - TAKE OVER YOUR INSTITUTIONS!!!... HELP IS ON THE WAY,” Trump wrote in a post on the Truth network, adding that he had canceled all meetings with Iranian officials until what he called the “senseless killing” of protesters stops.
However, unless street unrest and foreign pressure lead to defections at the very top, the establishment, although weakened, is likely to survive, Reuters sources said.
An Iranian official said about 2.000 people had been killed in the protests, the first time authorities have given a total death toll during more than two weeks of nationwide unrest, although the official did not provide a breakdown of casualties.
The US-based human rights group HRANA said that of the 2.003 deaths it confirmed, 1.850 were protesters. It said 16.784 people had been detained, a sharp increase from the number it reported on Monday.
Because of Iran's layered security architecture, reliant on the Revolutionary Guard and the Basij paramilitary force, which together number close to a million people, overthrowing the regime without internal discord is extremely difficult, said Vali Nasr, an Iranian-American academic and expert on regional conflicts and American foreign policy.
"For something like this to work, you have to have the masses in the streets for a significantly longer period of time. And you have to have the collapse of the state. Some parts of the state, and particularly the security forces, have to defect," he said.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 86, has survived several previous waves of unrest. This is the fifth major uprising since 2009, a testament to resilience and cohesion even as the government faces a deep, unresolved internal crisis, said Paul Salem of the Middle East Institute.
To change that, protesters would have to build enough momentum to overcome the state's entrenched advantages: powerful institutions, a significant portion of the population loyal to clerical rule, and the geographic and demographic dimensions of the country of 90 million people, said Alan Ayer, a former U.S. diplomat and Iran expert.
But the regime's survival does not mean stability, analysts say. The Islamic Republic faces one of its most difficult challenges since 1979. Sanctions have suffocated the economy, with no clear path to recovery. Strategically, it is under pressure from Israel and the United States: its nuclear program has been weakened, and the regional "axis of resistance" - proxy armed groups - has been weakened by heavy losses to its allies in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza.
Nasr said that while he does not believe the Islamic Republic has reached its "moment of collapse," it is "now in big trouble."
The protests began on December 28th in response to skyrocketing prices, before turning openly against clerical rule. Politically, the violent crackdown on the demonstrations further undermined what remained of the Islamic Republic's legitimacy.
What makes this moment stand out and raises the stakes, according to analysts, are Trump's explicit warnings that killing protesters could trigger American intervention.
Trump on Monday announced a 25% import tariff on products from any country that does business with Iran, a major oil exporter. Tehran has not yet commented publicly on Trump's tariff announcement, but it quickly drew criticism from China. Iran, already under heavy US sanctions, exports most of its oil to China, while its other major trading partners include Turkey, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates and India.
Salem said Trump's interest in the protests is likely tactical, not ideological, adding that the goal could be to weaken the state enough to force concessions, such as limits on Iran's nuclear program.
The idea of a “Venezuelan model” is gaining traction in some circles in Washington and Jerusalem, one diplomat and three analysts said. The approach involves removing the highest authority in Iran, with a message to the rest of the state apparatus: stay in your places — on condition that you cooperate.
However, when applied to Iran, this approach encounters serious obstacles in the form of a strong security state, deep institutional cohesion, and a much larger, more ethnically complex country.
Two regional officials and two analysts told Reuters that foreign military action could split Iran along ethnic and sectarian lines, particularly in Kurdish and Sunni regions, which have a history of resistance.
For now, the constraints remain. US military capabilities are stretched elsewhere, although diplomats have said deployments could change quickly.
David Makowski, of the Washington Institute, said that if Trump acts, he expects quick action with a strong impact, rather than a protracted campaign - consistent with the president's preference in recent conflicts for a single decisive move rather than sending in ground troops.
"He's looking for that one gesture that could change the game, but what is it?" Makovski said.
Options range from naval pressure on Iranian oil shipments to targeted military or cyber strikes - all of which carry serious risks.
“Trump sometimes uses threats to delay decisions, sometimes to deter opponents, and sometimes to signal that he is indeed preparing to intervene,” said Makovski of the Washington Institute. “We don’t know yet what the case is here.”
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