"Everything indicates that an attack on Iran is certain"

The region is on high alert: the US is withdrawing personnel from bases, and European and Israeli sources claim that military intervention is likely

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Photo: Beta / AP
Photo: Beta / AP
Disclaimer: The translations are mostly done through AI translator and might not be 100% accurate.

In a move similar to one Washington took ahead of a massive attack on Iranian nuclear facilities over the summer, the US has withdrawn some personnel from bases in the Middle East, after a senior Iranian official said Tehran had warned its neighbors that it would target US bases if Washington struck.

As Iran's leadership tries to quell the worst internal unrest the Islamic Republic has ever faced, Tehran seeks to deflect threats from the US president. Donald Trump that they will intervene in favor of anti-government protesters.

"All signals indicate that a US attack is certain, but this administration is also acting in this way to keep everyone in suspense. Unpredictability is part of the strategy," a Western military official told Reuters.

Britain has also reportedly withdrawn some personnel from an air base in Qatar in anticipation of possible US strikes. Poland and Italy have urged their citizens to leave Iran as soon as possible.

Two European officials said a US military intervention seemed likely, with one suggesting it could happen within the next 24 hours. An Israeli official also told the British agency that Trump appeared to have made a decision to intervene, although the exact scale and timing of the intervention were not yet clear.

Reuters, citing an informed source, reported that diplomats sought guarantees from the Lebanese group Hezbollah that it would not take military action if the US or Israel carried out an attack on Iran.

The source said the Iranian-backed group was approached through diplomatic channels last week. Hezbollah gave no explicit guarantees, but has no plans to act unless a strike on Iran is “existential” for the Iranian leadership.

Qatar said the reduction in its presence at Al Udeid Air Base, the largest US base in the region, was being implemented "in response to current regional tensions."

Three diplomats said some personnel had been ordered to leave the base, although there was no immediate indication that large numbers of troops were being bused to a soccer stadium and shopping mall, as happened hours before the Iranian missile strike last year.

Shortly after the US attacks last summer, Tehran launched more than a dozen short- and medium-range ballistic missiles at Al Udeid, the Washington Post recalls, adding that although most US personnel were temporarily evacuated from the base, a US Patriot air defense battery shot down almost all of the incoming missiles.

It is not clear exactly what US assets are now being withdrawn from Al Udeid, nor what the Pentagon is moving to the region to assist in a possible operation targeting Iran.

The United States has not had an aircraft carrier in the Middle East since the Secretary of Defense Pit Hegset ordered the reinforcement of naval forces in the waters off Latin America, where they participated in a military campaign against suspected drug traffickers and in the dramatic arrest of the Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro.

Trump has repeatedly threatened to intervene on behalf of protesters in Iran, where thousands of people have reportedly been killed in a crackdown on protests against clerical rule.

Both Iran and its Western opponents have described the unrest, which began two weeks ago as protests over dire economic conditions and has rapidly escalated in recent days, as the most violent since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

An Iranian official said more than 2.000 people had been killed. A human rights group estimated the death toll at more than 2.600.

Iran "has never faced this much destruction," the Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces said today. Abdolrahim Mousavi, blaming foreign enemies. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barot he described “the most brutal repression in Iran’s modern history.”

Iranian authorities have accused the United States and Israel of inciting unrest.

A senior Iranian official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Tehran had asked US allies in the region to prevent Washington from attacking Iran.

"Tehran has told regional countries, from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to Turkey, that US bases in those countries will be attacked" if the US targets Iran, the official said.

The flow of information from Iran is hampered by the internet shutdown.

The US-based human rights organization HRANA said it has so far verified the deaths of 2.403 protesters and 147 people associated with the government, significantly exceeding the tolls from previous waves of protests that were suppressed by the authorities in 2022 and 2009.

Authorities in Tehran are trying to project images that suggest they still have public support. Iranian state television broadcast footage of large funeral processions for those killed in the unrest in Tehran, Isfahan and Bushehr, as well as other cities. People waved flags and pictures of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and held banners with slogans against the unrest.

President Masud Pezeshkiyan He said at a government meeting that as long as the government has popular support, "all the efforts of the enemy against the country will be in vain."

During a visit to a Tehran prison where arrested protesters are being held, the head of Iran's Supreme Court said that speed in trying and punishing those "who beheaded people or burned them" is crucial to preventing such events from happening again.

HRANA announced that 18.137 people have been arrested so far.

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