Intensive diplomatic efforts to dissuade Donald Trump from striking Iran, including communication between the Islamic Republic and the US administration, have led to a de-escalation of tensions in the Gulf, three sources close to Arab governments told the Financial Times.
The newspaper writes that regional states, including Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar, Oman and Egypt, have urged the Trump administration to exercise restraint, warning of the potential harm to Iran's neighbors in the event of a US strike on the Iranian regime, including a rise in global oil and gas prices.
“Things have calmed down for now,” an Arab official told the FT. “The US will take time to talk to Iran to see where it goes.”
Communication between the US and the Islamic Republic allowed Iranian officials to assure Trump that there would be no executions of protesters and that the death toll was not as high as reported outside the country.
The official said hopes are now growing that communication between Tehran and Washington, which may have been facilitated by a third party such as Russia or Oman, could escalate into additional talks in the coming days.
Tensions have risen sharply in recent days after Trump hinted at US action against the regime on Tuesday, posting on social media: "HELP IS ON THE WAY," as Iranian protesters faced a brutal crackdown by the authorities.
Amnesty International said Iranian authorities committed "mass unlawful killings on an unprecedented scale" to crush largely peaceful protests that erupted in late December, with the death toll rising to 2.000, it said, "by official admission."
The US announced new sanctions yesterday against Iranian regime leaders it says were involved in orchestrating the crackdown, as well as against individuals and entities it accuses of laundering Iranian oil revenues.
Among the 18 individuals and entities sanctioned was Ali Larijani, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, whom Washington says was among the first Iranian leaders to call for violence against protesters. The US also sanctioned provincial commanders of Iran's paramilitary Revolutionary Guard.
“Our message to the Iranian people is clear. Your demands are legitimate,” US Treasury Secretary Scott Besant said in a video message. “You are protesting for a noble cause, and the United States supports you and your efforts.”
He said the administration's message to the Iranian leadership is that "there is still time, if you choose to join us. As President Trump has said, stop the violence and stand with the people of Iran."
As regional tensions rose on Wednesday, Washington withdrew some personnel and aircraft from Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, the regional headquarters of the US military command that houses about 10.000 troops, fueling speculation of an imminent US strike on Tehran.
But later in the day, Trump said he had received assurances that Iran had stopped killing protesters and had no plans for executions. He did not provide a source for the information.
His statement caused global oil prices to fall, as traders became less concerned that possible military action could limit Iranian production or that Iran could retaliate with attacks on export supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz.
The USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group is heading towards the region, according to a diplomat and satellite analysis by Ollie Ballinger, a lecturer in geospatial computing at University College London.
While the US assesses the effectiveness of possible strikes, military options remain on the table, one of the sources said. “Trump is ready to pull the trigger and call the de-escalation a bluff,” the source said. But the US president wants “a quick, clearly defined outcome,” such as he achieved with his military intervention in Venezuela.
Unrest in Iran and the possibility of American intervention have encouraged countries in the region to build closer defense relationships.
Ankara has held talks on deepening defense ties with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, which signed a mutual defense agreement last year, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said.
“Stability in the region can only be ensured by the leading countries of the region. But we are troubled by a lack of trust... solve this trust deficit and 80 percent of our problems will be solved,” Fidan told reporters on Thursday. “We definitely need defensive stability in the region; it is an internal, regional matter.”
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