The dispute between NATO partners in Europe and the United States is escalating every day: recently, US President Donald Trump intensified the conflict over Greenland by announcing the introduction of special tariffs for several European countries, including Germany. Germany and other European countries have deployed troops to Greenland to send a – largely symbolic – signal of resistance to Trump’s demand to take over the Danish island, by force if necessary. Now the European Union is considering imposing retaliatory tariffs on goods from the United States.
And just a few days ago, during a visit to Washington, German Foreign Minister Johann Wadeful optimistically declared: “Our partnership is strong, we are capable of reaching an agreement and we are determined to expand it further.” He also emphasized that the US stands “fully with Europe,” both politically and militarily.
Taking Greenland would change everything. Doubts about that support are growing – doubts not only about whether the US would actually protect European NATO countries in the event of a Russian attack. If the US were to actually violate the sovereignty of its NATO partner Denmark, the Alliance would collapse, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has said.
"These are really dramatic and tense times," American Rachel Tausendfreund of the Berlin-based think tank German Foreign Policy Society told DW. "Germany is now wondering whether it should prepare for an attack by its most important NATO partner. In that sense, relations have never been worse. On the other hand, Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Donald Trump, from everything we can hear, have a pretty good relationship."
But even that has its limits. When it came to the attacks on Venezuela and the kidnapping of President Nicolas Maduro by US special forces, the Chancellor was cautious and described the legal situation as “complicated” – even though the action was a clear violation of international law. Such restraint is now almost impossible.
Johannes Farvik, a professor of international relations at the University of Halle, believes that taking over Greenland "would really be the last straw. I think that the relationship of trust with the US would then probably be irreversibly destroyed. In principle, then you would have to press the reset button and see on what basis you can cooperate in the future. But that would be very, very difficult, because of course the European Union is still dependent on the US on many issues. That break would be expensive, risky, but probably inevitable."
The dependence on the US is enormous.
The convinced "transatlanticist" Merc is determined to avoid this break. Trump, however, has rejected almost all the previous foundations of a close partnership.
Merz was not yet chancellor when Trump publicly humiliated Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in February. Merz said at the time: “It is clear, at the latest after Trump’s statements, that for some Americans the fate of Europe is largely irrelevant.” His priority, he stressed at the time, is to help Europe “step by step achieve independence from the United States.”
But it's not that simple, Farwick points out: "The only thing that could impress Trump is a unified European position. Friedrich Merz is working on that, but the differences in interests between European states are still very large."
Merc in Washington – only a temporary success
Relations have been on a downward spiral over the past year. US tariffs on European goods are particularly hitting Germany's export-oriented economy. In the war in Ukraine, Donald Trump has increasingly shown that he would be willing to make major concessions to Russian President Vladimir Putin for peace.
Yet despite all the conflicts – or perhaps because of them – Merz made his first official visit to Washington as chancellor in early June. The meeting went better than expected – probably also because Merz was able to confirm that Germany now wants to spend much more on defense, which Trump had insisted on. Trump, however, made no concessions for his part.
The return of imperialism
Since December, events have accelerated: in the new national security strategy, the US administration warns Europe of "civilizational destruction" through migration. The Western Hemisphere has been declared a sphere of American influence. Immediately after the action in Venezuela, the threat to Greenland has intensified.
The German government appears helpless in its efforts to, on the one hand, keep Trump in the position of protector of Europe and in the search for a peaceful solution in Ukraine, and on the other hand, to remain true to its own values: respect for international law and the rules-based international order.
Rachel Tausendfreund of the German Foreign Policy Society does not believe that the US will completely distance itself from Europe: "The US wants to recalibrate its relationship with Europe, it wants to take on less of a burden in protecting Ukraine, but even the Trump administration still sees the Europeans as partners, even though some in that government are strongly anti-EU."
Political scientist Johannes Farvik believes that stormy times lie ahead for Germany in any case, because with Trump, imperialism and the right of the strong are returning: "This is, of course, very bad news for Germany, because Germany, more than any other country, has depended on a stable international environment - both security-wise and economically. The German business model is on the decline, and there is still no alternative."
Hostility towards Trump in his ancestral homeland
Late last year, the chancellor's office announced that Trump had accepted Merz's invitation to come to Germany. The invitation was extended in June during the chancellor's visit to Washington - when Trump was presented with the birth certificate of his grandfather, who had emigrated to the US from the town of Kallstadt.
Trump probably felt honored because Germany values his family history, Tausendfreund believes. But he says that shouldn't be misinterpreted. "It doesn't mean he has any feelings of lasting connection to Germany."
How Trump might be received by the public during his visit, a survey by public broadcaster ARD in early January showed. Only 15 percent of those surveyed consider the US a reliable partner, and 76 percent say they can no longer be trusted. This is a radical change in sentiment compared to the period under President Joe Biden.
The invitation to Germany came at a time when relations were already tense, but long before the latest escalation over Greenland. It currently seems almost unthinkable that Donald Trump would visit Germany anytime soon under these circumstances.
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