For decades, Canada has been portrayed as a country in the shadow of the United States. In a famous metaphor, Pierre Elliott Trudeau (prime minister from 1968 to 1979 and again from 1980 to 1984) summed up this reality back in 1969: “Living next to you (the United States) is in a way like sleeping with an elephant. No matter how friendly and mild-mannered that beast, if I may call it that, is, its every twitch and growl is felt.”
This year, that beast is noisy and destructive. But the Canadian neighbor now wants to get out of that bed.
In today's world, as Prime Minister Mark Carney said at the World Economic Forum in Davos, citing the Greek historian Thucydides, "the strong do what they can, and the weak suffer what they must." Canada is seeking a third way to assert itself against dominant powers at a time when the international order is in disarray.
“His words captured a reality that Canadians were feeling but not necessarily expressing, which can be encouraging,” said Asa McKercher, chair of Canada-US relations at St. Francis Xavier University in Nova Scotia. The former Bank of England governor’s speech marked the end of an era: Donald Trump is not a passing anomaly. Goodbye Pax Americana and the age of more or less respected international treaties.
His words also marked the end of the Justin Trudeau era, during which Canada was seen as internationally naive. The former prime minister was sharply rebuked in 2022 by Chinese President Xi Jinping during a recorded verbal exchange for leaking details of their conversation to the media. His visit to India in 2018 turned into a complete fiasco.
“The failure of (Trudeau’s) campaign to secure a seat on the United Nations Security Council illustrates this clearly: behind the lofty ambitions, there were many failures,” said McKercher. Under Carney, Canada adopted a pragmatic realpolitik, showing flexibility on principle and acknowledging in Davos that not all of the country’s partners necessarily share the same values.
Carney's speech did offer a measure of encouragement: While hegemonic ambitions are undeniable, middle powers need not be stifled if they band together. Ottawa hopes to quickly lead a coalition of democratic states committed to free trade. "If the United States no longer wants to lead, Canada will," Carney said.
Who should Canada ally with? The prime minister is betting on “variable geometry” coalitions, formed around specific issues as they arise. In less than a year at the helm of government, this doctrine is already seeing results: 12 trade and security agreements have been signed, including partnerships with China and Qatar, and soon perhaps with India. Yet this appealing concept of ad hoc alliances is not without risk.
“Will Canada become transactional, calculating, assessing short-term benefits from cooperation with autocratic or predatory powers, such as China and perhaps soon Russia,” warned Daniel Fried, a former US ambassador to Poland. He believes Canada should refuse to compromise its values and wait out the “Trump storm” to pass.
Moreover, these ad hoc coalitions could quickly be blocked: Ottawa has some room for maneuver, but it is narrow. When renegotiating the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement, in force since 2020, Washington could, for example, try to limit exports of certain critical minerals to China, invoking clauses on secure supply chains.
Carney's triumphant return to Canada after Davos ended with a rough landing. In response to his speech, Trump threatened Ottawa with 100 percent tariffs if Canada finalized a deal with Beijing. The US president, who in October 2025 still called Carney a "world-class leader," now derisively refers to him as the "governor" of Canada.
Washington is increasing the pressure. While the Canadian prime minister was giving a speech on Canadian unity on the Plains of Abraham in Quebec on January 22, US Treasury Secretary Scott Besant was almost openly encouraging Alberta to become another one of the fifty stars on the American flag.
The secessionist movement in the western province is gaining momentum. An independence referendum in Alberta could be held as early as this year. The United States clearly intends to take advantage of this. Since April 2025, members of the Trump administration have met three times with representatives of the separatist group. “The power of the weak begins with honesty,” Carney stressed in Davos. But can Ottawa, as it seeks a more prominent role on the world stage, continue to sleep peacefully?
prepared by: S. STRUGAR
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