The sun is shining again over Havana. For several days, Cuba has been hit by an exceptionally strong intrusion of cold, polar air. This has brought temperatures to around freezing point in some parts of the Caribbean country for the first time in history. But it is not just the cold air from the United States (US) that is causing the gloomy mood in Cuba these days.
Following the US attack on Cuba's closest ally, Venezuela, and the kidnapping of Nicolas Maduro, Caracas suspended oil shipments to the island. In late January, US President Donald Trump declared Cuba a "special threat to the national security of the United States" and threatened all countries with tariffs if they continued to supply Cuba with oil or petroleum products.
Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel initially called the measures "fascist, criminal and genocidal". In the meantime, he says that Cuba is ready for talks with the US - without preconditions". At the same time, he insists that his regime is not "on the verge of collapse" and announces details of a plan to strengthen the energy sector.
"Trump is crazy - he wants to take away the air we breathe at all costs. And the other one is even more fanatical when it comes to Cuba," Aleida says from Havana, alluding to the Cuban-born US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. He is considered one of the main proponents of the policy of "maximum pressure" on Venezuela and Cuba. "We're just waiting to see what else will happen," Aleida says, visibly worried.
"Sometimes I think Trump will attack us, and sometimes he won't let us sink so he can present himself as a savior," says Rachel, a 21-year-old office worker from the Cuban capital, adding that she expects daily life to become even more difficult.
"Trump is hurting us ordinary people, not the government," says Ramon. The 60-year-old works as a taxi driver and makes a living from tourism - which has fallen further in the past year. Gasoline can now only be obtained with foreign currency and after waiting in lines for hours at so-called "dollar pumps". Power outages lasting from ten to 15 hours a day have become commonplace in Havana. The country currently produces only about 40 percent of its electricity. Yet, despite Trump's tariff threats, life in Havana seems to be going on as usual.
This is confirmed by Bert Hofmann, a leading researcher at the German GIGA Institute for Latin American Studies, who is currently based in Havana. "There is great anticipation. We are living in a kind of 'crisis normality' - life goes on. Power outages are more frequent, there is less gasoline, but everything is getting worse gradually. There is still traffic on the streets," says Hofmann. But it is a deceptive normality, because the country "has no prospect of getting oil."
A turning point in Caracas
Since January 3, everything has changed, says Hoffman. Venezuela has been eliminated as Cuba's most important oil supplier. Mexico, the second most important supplier, has suspended planned shipments for January. Since December 9, no oil tankers have docked in Cuba.
In January, Cuba bought a shipment of oil on the so-called spot market. A ship from Togo, which was supposed to arrive in Cuba on February 4, changed course on the high seas to the Dominican Republic. It can be assumed that this happened under pressure from the United States, says Hoffman. "This means that even if Cuba manages to buy oil, it will not reach the island." The same applies to possible shipments from Algeria, Angola, China or Vietnam. "I assume that the United States is putting a lot of effort into preventing this," says Hoffman. "It is very likely that Cuba will not receive oil for the foreseeable future. And that is brutal."
Experts estimate that Cuba currently needs about 100.000 barrels of crude oil per day. Between a quarter and a third of its oil has come from Venezuela so far. Mexico supplied an estimated 6.000 to 12.000 barrels per day in 2025, while Russia and Algeria sent smaller quantities.
"There are rumors that there might be no oil left in February - and we're already in February," says Rachel. She hopes that consumption has been lower and that supplies will last a little longer.
Although Cuba has invested heavily in solar parks over the past two years, with support from China, they are nowhere near enough to cover its electricity needs. Electricity supply still depends on outdated, Soviet-made thermal power plants that are prone to breakdowns. This means that Cuba is urgently dependent on energy imports. Domestic heavy oil, which covers about 40 percent of its needs, cannot be refined into gasoline and is used only for power plants.
Nobody knows how long existing oil supplies will last, says Hoffman. The Financial Times reported in late January that it could be 15 to 20 days. In any case, the consequences will be catastrophic.
"It's basically a matter of a few weeks before there will be no more gasoline. And when there is no gasoline, not only can tourists not get from the beach to the airport, but food from the countryside can't get to the cities either," emphasizes the GIGA institute expert.
Hoffman also mentions a German company that produces medical oxygen for hospitals in Cuba. "If the truck doesn't have gas, the oxygen doesn't get to the hospital and people die." If food can no longer be transported, there will be famine.
Mexico announced it would send humanitarian aid this week. At the same time, it is exploring diplomatic options for oil supplies. But Mexico is economically heavily dependent on the United States, so its room for maneuver is limited. In addition, new negotiations on the North American Free Trade Agreement are coming up, which is putting additional pressure on Trump's neighboring country.
Contacts are not negotiations.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has also offered to mediate in possible talks between Washington and Havana, although it is not at all clear what would be negotiated. At a Senate hearing in January, US Secretary of State Rubio openly made it known that he seeks regime change.
Unlike Venezuela, Cuba has less economic significance than symbolic significance. The Caribbean island symbolizes resistance to the Monroe Doctrine and America's claim to dominance in the Western Hemisphere. "It's an open score," says Hoffman. "In Washington, they feel that they now hold all the trump cards and that the moment has come for Cuba to capitulate, whatever that means in concrete terms." It is therefore difficult to imagine "what points the Cuban leadership could agree on with Trump and Rubio."
Trump has claimed in recent days that his government is holding talks with the Cuban leadership. Havana has denied this - there are contacts, but not dialogue. Cuban Deputy Foreign Minister Carlos Fernandez de Cosio said in an interview with the Spanish news agency EFE on Tuesday that "messages have been exchanged", but that "it would be wrong to say that bilateral negotiations are being prepared". Havana has repeatedly publicly expressed its readiness to hold talks with the US "on an equal footing".
Faced with the oil embargo, De Cosio admitted that his country has "limited options." He announced an emergency plan that would be presented to the population "in the coming days." It would be "difficult for the government and very difficult for the population as a whole."
Meanwhile, Russia's ambassador to Cuba, Viktor Coronelli, sent a clear message. According to Reuters, the diplomat stressed in an interview with the Russian news agency RIA Novosti that Moscow plans to continue supplying oil to Cuba.
"Russian oil has been delivered to Cuba several times in recent years. We assume that this practice will continue," Coronelli said.
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