The promises of artificial intelligence (AI) could cost consumers dearly: the increasing demand for memory components is making smartphones and computers increasingly expensive – also in Germany.
"The artificial intelligence boom and the investments in infrastructure and data centers that accompany it are having a visible impact on the memory chip market," Wolfgang Weber, chairman of the board of the Association of the Electrical and Digital Industries (ZVEI), explains to DW.
"Analysis by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) Institute shows that the prices of these chips have increased by 50 percent in the past year," says Weber. This, he adds, threatens not only longer delivery times, but also rising prices for electronic and digital devices.
“Shortages in such key technologies pose a serious problem for our economy,” the association’s president emphasizes. “The chip shortage alone from 2021 to 2023 caused damage of more than 102 billion euros in Germany.”
Boom in the semiconductor market
The latest WSTS data confirms the industry's strong growth. The global semiconductor market reached a value of $346 billion (€293 billion) in the first half of 2025, an increase of 18,9 percent compared to the previous year.
Overall, WSTS forecasts a 22 percent growth to $772 billion (€655 billion) in 2025. A further increase of more than 25 percent is expected in 2026, to $975 billion (€827 billion).
How much smartphones could become more expensive was analyzed by a study by the research firm IDC (International Data Corporation).
"In a moderate scenario, average selling prices of smartphones could increase by three to five percent," the study said. "In a pessimistic scenario, even up to eight percent."
The experts' conclusion is: "The era of cheap and easily accessible memory and storage media is coming to an end. The year 2026 will likely be the year in which technology becomes more expensive due to supply problems, not demand growth."
Samsung: smartphones will become more expensive
Samsung Electronics Chairman Won-Jin Lee had already announced the price increase in an interview with Bloomberg magazine in late January. "Prices are currently rising day by day," Lee said.
"Of course we don't want to pass this burden on to consumers, but we will come to a point where we will have to consider new pricing for our products."
Apple has not yet publicly commented on possible price increases. Analysts at investment bank Morgan Stanley predict in their 2026 forecast that the company will keep the price of the base model at a high level, but could introduce additional surcharges for higher memory capacities.
More memory, higher costs
The share and cost of memory chips in smartphone manufacturing has increased significantly over the past five years. According to industry data, memory accounted for about eight percent of the component cost in a device like the iPhone 12 Pro Max in 2020.
By September 2025, that share had increased to around ten percent for the iPhone 17 Pro Max. Due to further increases in memory chip prices, their share could reach 20 percent, analysts at the consultancy Counterpoint Research estimate.
Stagnation in the German market
Digital industry association Bitkom expects the German market to stagnate or even decline due to the current chip shortages. "Consumer demand in Germany is currently generally weak," Sebastian Kles, head of markets and technology at Bitkom, told DW.
However, industry revenues continue to grow, albeit modestly. The reason is the continued rise in device prices. According to a study by Bitkom, the average price of a new smartphone in Germany rose from 591 euros in 2024 to 605 euros last year.
Winners: used phones with warranty
In contrast to the weak demand for new devices, the used smartphone market is experiencing strong growth. According to a joint analysis by market research company NIQ, GFU and IFA management, refurbished smartphones reached a nine percent share of the EU market in July. In January 2025, this share was five percent.
“In some markets, refurbished models already account for more than 40 percent of online sales in the sub-600 euro segment,” the analysis states. “Refurbished devices are slowly ceasing to be a niche product and are becoming an important part of the market.”
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