BBC Verify, a specialist team of BBC journalists dedicated to fact-checking, using satellite imagery, has confirmed the location of the US aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln near Iran, as Washington continues to pressure the country over its military programme and recent deadly crackdown on protesters, the BBC reports today.
US and Iranian officials are due to meet in Switzerland on Tuesday for a second round of talks. Iran says the meeting will focus on its nuclear program and a possible lifting of economic sanctions imposed by the United States. Washington has previously indicated it wants to discuss other issues.
The Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier, which leads a strike group of three guided-missile destroyers, carries 90 aircraft, including F-35 fighters, and has a crew of 5.680. It was reportedly deployed to the Gulf region in late January but has not been seen in satellite imagery until now. It is located off the coast of Oman, about 700 kilometers from Iran.
The US has reportedly also dispatched the aircraft carrier "Gerald R. Ford", the largest warship in the world, to the Middle East, which could arrive in the region in the next three weeks.
The arrival of the "Abraham Lincoln" adds to what is known about the current strengthening of the US military presence in the Middle East in recent weeks, where BBC Verify has monitored an increase in the number of US destroyers, combat ships and fighter jets in the region.
What military assets has the US moved to the Middle East?
Publicly available images from European Sentinel-2 satellites show the aircraft carrier "Abraham Lincoln" in the Arabian Sea, about 240 kilometers off the coast of Oman, according to the BBC.
The aircraft carrier has not been seen since it reportedly entered the region in January, but has been moving in the open sea, where satellite coverage is limited. Military assets on land are more visible and are more frequently tracked by satellites.
The BBC writes that this means that 12 American ships have now been tracked in the Middle East via satellite images: the USS Abraham Lincoln, a nuclear-powered Nimitz-class aircraft carrier, which together with three Arleigh Burke-class destroyers forms a carrier strike group; two more destroyers capable of carrying out long-range missile strikes; and three specialized near-coastal warfare ships, currently stationed at a naval base in Bahrain, in the Gulf. Two more destroyers have been seen in the eastern Mediterranean, near the US base in the Gulf of Suda, and one more in the Red Sea.
The BBC says they have also been monitoring US aircraft movements in the region, noting an increase in the number of F-15 and EA-18 fighters stationed at the Muafak Salti military base in Jordan, as well as an increased number of US transport aircraft, as well as refueling and communications aircraft heading to the Middle East from the US and Europe.
How did Iran respond?
On February 6, the US Central Command (CENTCOM) released photos of the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln surrounded by destroyers, fighter jets, reconnaissance aircraft and coast guard vessels in the Arabian Sea, in an apparent display of military might – to which Iran responded with its own show of force.
On Monday, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) began a naval exercise in the Strait of Hormuz, located in the Gulf between Oman and Iran. During the exercise, IRGC commander Major General Mohammad Pakpour toured warships in a port, after which footage showed missiles being launched from the ship, the IRGC-affiliated Tasnim news agency reported.
The Strait of Hormuz is considered one of the world's most important shipping lanes and a key "bottleneck" for oil transit. About a fifth of the world's oil and gas passes through the strait, and is home to Kharg Island, Iran's main oil export terminal. In a report detailing the latest Iranian military maneuvers, Pakpour was seen flying a helicopter over the island.
How does this compare to Venezuela and Operation Midnight Hammer?
Military intelligence expert Justin Crump told BBC Verify that current US military preparations in the Middle East show "more depth and sustainability" than the maneuvers ahead of the arrest of former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in January, or the airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities last June.
All three cases involve an aircraft carrier strike group and several destroyers operating independently. However, the US deployed assets to Venezuela and Iran last year under quite different circumstances.
The US deployed the USS Gerald R. Ford to the Caribbean ahead of the strike on Venezuela – one of eight warships the BBC followed in the region at the time – but used fewer aircraft, as it could easily have sent fighter jets from nearby US bases on the US mainland or from a base in Puerto Rico. The US has also sent amphibious assault ships to the Caribbean, which can serve as platforms for helicopter operations, as was seen during the capture of Maduro. But the Venezuelan military is generally seen as less capable of defending itself or retaliating against the US.
When the US struck Iran last year in Operation Midnight Hammer, which targeted Iranian nuclear facilities, it attacked a country with a military far more powerful than Venezuela. The Iranian military is capable of striking US bases across the Middle East.
During Operation Midnight Hammer, the US had two carrier strike groups in the region, five destroyers deployed in the Mediterranean and Red Seas, and three battleships in the Gulf. It also moved squadrons of fighter jets and refueling aircraft from the US to Europe, but the B-2 stealth bombers used to attack the nuclear sites of Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz actually took off from US bases in the US state of Missouri.
Crump, CEO of risk and intelligence assessment firm Sibylline, said the buildup of US warships and aircraft, as well as eight existing air bases in the region, would allow the US to conduct a "fairly intense and sustained strike rate" of about 800 combat sorties a day, with the aim of rendering any Iranian response "ineffective."
"What we are seeing is not just a preparation for strikes, but a broader deployment for deterrence, which can be scaled up or down. That means it has greater depth and sustainability than the force packages prepared for both Venezuela and 'Midnight Hammer' last year. It is designed to withstand engagement and to suppress any potential responses against American assets in the region and, of course, Israel," Crump said.
Bonus video:
