Iran and the United States yesterday concluded the second round of indirect negotiations on Iran's nuclear program in Geneva, with the mediation of Oman, and Tehran announced that an agreement had been reached on general, "general principles" that should serve as the basis for further work and a third round of talks.
The meeting, which lasted about three and a half hours, took place in a "more constructive atmosphere" than the first meeting on February 6, said Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.
"Different ideas were put forward, these ideas were seriously discussed, and in the end we managed to reach a general agreement on some guiding principles. From now on, we will move based on these principles and enter into the text of a potential agreement," Araghchi told Iranian media after the talks in Geneva concluded, warning that positions remained distant and that it would take time for them to converge.
After exchanging documents, the two sides will decide on the date for the third round of negotiations, he said.
The talks are taking place in the shadow of Donald Trump's already well-known stream of contradictory messages, in which he has said he believes Iran wants a deal but at the same time has emphasized the US naval military buildup in the region.
"I don't think they want the consequences of not making a deal," Trump told reporters on Monday aboard Air Force One. "We could have had a deal instead of sending B-2 bombers to destroy their nuclear capability. And we had to send B-2s."
US warships have been deployed in the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf, while Tehran has announced military exercises and the temporary closure of parts of the Strait of Hormuz for live fire.
Responding to Trump's comments that "regime change" in Iran could be the best solution, the country's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (86), warned that any US attempt to overthrow his rule would fail.
"The US president says that their army is the strongest in the world, but even the strongest army in the world can sometimes be slapped so hard that it cannot stand up," Khamenei said, according to Iranian media.
The Guardian points out that the negotiations are taking place in parallel with a wave of protests in Iran, the arrests of reformist politicians and thousands of demonstrators, and court proceedings against critics of the regime - which further narrows the space for maneuver for the authorities in Tehran.
In substance, the talks are focused exclusively on the nuclear program. Iran reiterates that it will not negotiate on its ballistic missile program or on support for regional allies. Tehran, however, has signaled its willingness to consider diluting its stockpile of about 40 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent, a level close to military grade, as well as the return of full supervision by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). In the event of an agreement, the IAEA would also have to regain access to facilities damaged in earlier attacks.
At the center of this complicated negotiation process are two negotiators with completely different styles - Abbas Aragchi and US special envoy Steve Witkoff.
Aragchi, as the Guardian reminds us, is a diplomat with almost 15 years of experience in nuclear negotiations and the author of the book "The Power of Negotiation," in which he writes openly about the Iranian school of negotiation. His approach relies on patience, repeating demands with different arguments, and keeping a "poker face." "The main principle of bargaining is practice: repetition, repetition, and repetition - with persistence and perseverance," he states in the book, explaining that the Iranian style is known worldwide as the "bazaar style" - tireless and long-term negotiation in which the one who gets tired first loses.
Born into a family of merchants, a veteran of the Iran-Iraq War, and with a PhD in political thought from the University of Kent, Araghchi is seen as a technocratic and cautious figure, closer to the conservative establishment and the Revolutionary Guard than his predecessor, Javad Zarif. Before each round, the parameters of Iran's offer are agreed upon through broad consultations within the system, including with the Supreme Leader.
On the other hand, Witkoff, a lawyer by training who made his fortune in real estate, is acting with a mandate that comes directly from one man - Donald Trump.
While Tehran sees diplomacy as a game of chess, Trump often views it as wrestling, an extension of the spectacle, and is inclined to a quick, transactional deal that he can present as a victory.
In his book, Aragchi emphasizes that the real strength of a negotiator depends on internal cohesion and military balance. If there is no at least a rough balance of power, he advises that it is better to postpone negotiations - which is what Iran did after bombing nuclear sites last year.
At the same time, he insists on the concept of the "golden bridge" - leaving the opponent a dignified exit.
Analysts estimate that the US will insist on diluting or removing its stockpiles of highly enriched uranium, while Iran would demand parallel, irreversible concessions for such an irreversible step - such as unfreezing significant assets abroad.
In a "Trump" world, as some European analysts warn, it is not certain that every element of a potential deal will be translated into a formal agreement; a series of informal agreements are also possible, including a non-aggression pact between Iran and the US, the British newspaper writes.
For now, reaching agreement on the main principles and announcing a third round represent a cautious move.
However, between chess patience and political transaction, the road to a final agreement remains long - and depends as much on the technicalities of the nuclear program as on political calculations in Tehran and Washington.
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