Ahead of the US attack on Iran, US President Donald Trump received briefings that, in addition to presenting frank assessments of the risk of large American casualties, also pointed to the possibility of a generational change in the Middle East in favor of US interests, a US official told Reuters.
The launch of what the Pentagon called an "Epic Fury" on Saturday plunged the Middle East into a new and unpredictable conflict. The US and Israeli militaries struck targets across Iran, prompting retaliatory Iranian attacks on Israel and nearby Gulf Arab states.
The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said those briefing the president described the operation as a high-risk, high-gain scenario.
Trump himself seemed to confirm such an assessment when he acknowledged the stakes at the start of the operation, saying that "the lives of brave American heroes could be lost," according to Reuters.
"But we are not doing this for the present, but for the future, and it is a noble mission," Trump said in a video address announcing the start of major combat operations. For 47 years, the Iranian regime has been shouting death to America and waging a relentless campaign of bloodshed and mass murder... We will no longer tolerate it," Trump said.
Briefings from Trump's national security team help explain how the president decided to launch arguably the riskiest US military operation since the 2003 invasion of Iraq.
Ahead of the attack, Trump received multiple briefings from officials including CIA Director John Ratcliffe, US General Dan Kaine, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth.
On Thursday, Admiral Brad Cooper, who leads US forces in the Middle East as head of Central Command, arrived in Washington to participate in talks in the White House Crisis Room.
Another US official said that the White House was briefed before the attack on numerous risks associated with operations against Iran, including possible retaliatory Iranian missile attacks on multiple US bases in the region that could overwhelm defence systems, as well as attacks by Iranian allies on US troops in Iraq and Syria.
The official added that despite the large military buildup by the United States, there were limitations to the air defense systems that were rapidly deployed to the region.
Experts warn that the conflict could take a dangerous path, and the first official said that Pentagon planning did not guarantee the outcome of any conflict.
Trump has called on Iranians to overthrow the government, but that is easier said than done, said Nicole Grajewski of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
"The Iranian opposition is quite fragmented. It is not clear what the population is willing to do when it comes to an uprising," Grajevski said.
Both US officials requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the internal discussions.
The White House did not immediately respond to requests for comment. The Pentagon declined to comment.
Trump's overarching goals
In the weeks leading up to the attack, Trump ordered a major military buildup in the Middle East. Reuters reported on military plans for a protracted campaign against Iran, if the president chose to do so. The plans included targeting individual officials, the sources said.
An Israeli official said that the targets were Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Massoud Peshmerga, but that the outcome of the attack was unclear.
Trump made clear on Saturday that his goals in Iran are comprehensive, saying he would end the threat Tehran poses to the United States and give Iranians the opportunity to overthrow their rulers. To achieve this, he outlined plans to destroy much of Iran's military and prevent it from developing nuclear weapons. Iran denies it is seeking nuclear weapons.
"We will destroy their missiles and raze their missile industry to the ground... We will destroy their navy. We will ensure that terrorist allies in the region can no longer destabilize the region or the world and attack our forces," he said.
Trump's decision shows a growing willingness to take risks, significantly greater than when he ordered US special forces into Venezuela last month to arrest the country's president in a daring operation.
The current campaign against Iran is riskier than the decision to bomb Iranian nuclear facilities in June.
Iran's Revolutionary Guards have threatened all US bases and interests in the region, saying that Iranian retaliation will continue until "the enemy is decisively defeated."
Experts warn that Iran has many options for retaliation, including missile strikes, but also drones and cyberwarfare.
Daniel Shapiro, a former senior Pentagon official for Middle East affairs, said that Tehran, despite US and Israeli attacks, will still be capable of inflicting damage.
"Iran has many more ballistic missiles that can hit US bases than the US has interceptors... some Iranian missiles will get through," said Shapiro, who also served as US ambassador to Israel.
"(These attacks are) a big gamble."
See more:
Download the app and follow the news
FOLLOW US ON
