Reuters: CIA estimates Khamenei would be replaced by IRGC hardliners if killed

Ahead of today's US and Israeli strikes, the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) assessed that even if Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei were killed in the operation, he would most likely be replaced by hardliners from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), two sources familiar with the intelligence said, Reuters reports.

The assessments, which were produced over the past two weeks, have broadly considered what might happen in Iran following a US intervention and the extent to which a military operation could trigger regime change in the Islamic Republic — now a stated goal of Washington.

The IRGC is an elite military formation whose purpose is to protect the Shiite clerical government in Iran.

Intelligence reports did not conclude with certainty any scenario, said the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of intelligence matters.

The CIA declined to comment.

United States President Donald Trump has hinted for weeks that the United States is interested in regime change in Iran, but has not provided details about who Washington would see at the helm of the country.

In a video address this morning, Trump described Tehran as a "terrorist regime" and encouraged the Iranian people to take power, saying that US military strikes would create the conditions for an uprising.

The US-Israeli attack followed weeks of deliberations within the US administration about whether to strike Iran, following deadly protests that erupted in that country in December last year.

US officials have been trying in recent weeks to reach a nuclear deal with Tehran to prevent intervention.

At a briefing last week, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told leading members of Congress, known as the "Group of Eight," that the US operation would likely go ahead, but that Trump could change his mind, especially if nuclear negotiations were successful. Those talks in Geneva failed to produce a deal.

Rubio informed the Group of Eight on Friday night that an operation to strike Iran would likely begin in the coming hours, but said Trump could still change his mind, two sources familiar with the matter said.