Reuters: US, Israeli military strikes on Iran will boost Kim Jong Un's nuclear ambitions

US and Israeli military strikes on Iran will boost North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's nuclear ambitions, experts and former officials say, as attention shifts to whether he could return to talks with US President Donald Trump.

Talks over North Korea's arsenal of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, which is under heavy international sanctions, have collapsed despite summits between Kim and Trump in 2018 and 2019, but the attacks on Iran could prompt Pyongyang to reconsider.

The strikes on Iran, which killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, come two months after Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was captured in a raid by US special forces on Trump's orders.

"Kim probably thought that Iran was attacked like that because it did not have nuclear weapons," said Song Seong-jong, a professor at Daejeon University and former South Korean Defense Ministry official.

The military operation was inevitable, given the "hegemonic and renegade" nature of the US, a spokesman for North Korea's Foreign Ministry said in a statement carried by state media on Sunday.

Just days before the attack, Kim vowed at a ruling party congress last week to build more nuclear weapons, although he left the door open for new talks, depending on Washington's stance.

"If the US withdraws its confrontational policy towards North Korea while respecting the current status of our country... there is no reason why we cannot get along well with the US," state news agency KCNA quoted Kim as saying.

Trump has repeatedly said he would like to hold new talks, fueling speculation that the two leaders could meet when Trump travels to China from March 31 to April 2.

Preventive strikes

"The message the Trump administration wants the rogue states to understand clearly is: stop threatening America and its allies and reach an agreement before it's too late," said Life-Eric Isley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul.

Yet North Korea, he says, is far more advanced than Iran in developing nuclear warheads and delivery systems, including intercontinental ballistic missiles.

In 2022, North Korea officially enacted into law the right to preemptive use of nuclear strikes, which Kim said makes its nuclear status "irreversible."

Renewed talks with the US were still a low priority for Kim, said Sidney Sailer, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

"President Trump's willingness to use military force and threats as a bargaining chip must make Kim nervous and less inclined to rush to talk," added the former US special envoy during the six-party talks on North Korea's nuclear program.

However, a heightened sense of threat could bring Kim back to the negotiating table, some analysts believe.

"Unlike Iran, it is impossible to denuclearize North Korea," said Cho Han-bum of the state-run Korea Institute for National Unification, citing the scattering of nuclear sites across the isolated state.

North Korea is estimated to have assembled about 50 warheads and possess enough fissile material to produce up to 40 more, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) estimated last year.

Managing relations with Trump

There could still be a window of opportunity for talks if Kim is willing "to use his personal relationship with President Trump to test Washington's stance on North Korea while at the same time buying time to further advance the country's nuclear capabilities," said Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul.

Kim could consider a conditional meeting with Trump if the US recognizes North Korea's nuclear status, said Nam Sung-uk, a professor at Sukmjung Women's University and former head of a research center at South Korea's intelligence service.

The North Korean leader probably also believes that ties with China and Russia provide him with protection, Nam said.

In September, Kim made a rare trip by armored train to Beijing, where he stood shoulder to shoulder with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin at a major military parade.

Despite these ties, Kim may still want to reassure Trump that he will not use nuclear weapons against the United States, said Ko Yong-hwan, a defected North Korean diplomat who has advised the South Korean government.

"The incident in Iran must have made him think that he should manage relations with the US better," he said.