Experts: Tehran is expanding the conflict zone and increasing costs for Washington to secure a ceasefire

As the United States (US) and Israel wage war against Iran, Tehran is expanding the area of ​​conflict and increasing costs for Washington in an effort to secure an eventual ceasefire, experts say, Radio Free Europe (RFE) writes today.

Iran has fired hundreds of missiles and drones at US military bases, as well as key energy and commercial sites in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar - all close US allies - since February 28.

"The goal is to increase the costs for the US, both directly and indirectly, to convince Washington that it cannot succeed in this war," Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, told RFE/RL.

"Tehran wants to show that this is a war that the US cannot win and therefore must end it as soon as possible."

From signaling to survival

Iran has previously targeted US military bases and commercial interests in the region during previous waves of conflict, including during Tehran's 12-day war with Israel and the US in June 2025, but those moves have been largely symbolic and carefully planned.

The current Iranian military position, experts say, is fundamentally different after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and several key security officials were killed in Israeli airstrikes on February 28.

"Iran appears to be counting on the sensitivity of the US administration, and its allies around the world, to rising energy prices," Azizi said. "This is not just a matter of regional pressure. It is about adding weight to an already fragile global market that is still recovering from the consequences of the war in Ukraine."

About a fifth of the world's oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passage connecting the Persian Gulf to the open sea. Iran has previously considered closing the passage, a move that would seriously disrupt global oil flows.

Speaking to Al Jazeera television, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi admitted on March 1 that their Arab neighbors were "not thrilled" with Iran's behavior, but urged them to "understand" that it was the US and Israel who started the war.

"They (the Gulf states) should not be pressuring us to stop this war. They should be pressuring the other side," he said.

Saturation and "circulating" threats

On the ground, military reality is exhausting.

Farzin Nadimi, a defense expert at the Washington Institute, points out that Iran has learned from past mistakes, deploying its most advanced systems, such as the Fatah-1 and Kheibar Shekan ballistic missiles, to overwhelm the sophisticated, Western-made air defense systems used by US allies in the region.

"The goal is to ensure that air defense systems and civilians in shelters are under constant tension," Nadimi told RFE/RL's Radio Farda. He said Iran is maintaining a constant rhythm of firing approximately 25 ballistic missiles per hour, a pace designed to exhaust the interceptor stockpile.

In just a few days, Iranian drones and missiles have struck a major gas plant in Qatar, an oil refinery in Saudi Arabia, a US base in Kuwait, and a major airport in the United Arab Emirates, among other targets.

The US and Israel, for their part, responded with a new level of insistence.

"US Air Force tankers provide the necessary support that allows Israeli aircraft to remain over target areas (in Iran) for longer periods of time, what we call 'suspension,'" Nadimi added. "If they can keep those aircraft in the air longer and with a larger weapons load, they can permanently disable Iranian (missile) launchers."

"Survival is at stake"

For Washington, the challenge is whether the intensity of the air campaign can crush Tehran before the economic consequences break the resolve of American allies.

Gulf capitals, once outspoken advocates of containing Iran, are reportedly becoming increasingly cautious as their US-backed Patriot and Aegis air defense systems face overload.

Nadimi warns that "blinding one of these 'eyes' (radar) could affect the performance of the entire missile defense network in the region."

Ultimately, the conflict has transcended the traditional logic of cost-benefit analysis.

"When regimes perceive their survival as threatened, they may resort to extreme measures that defy normal rational calculations," Azizi said. "In existential situations, most other considerations take a back seat. Decision-making boils down to survival, and this war of attrition should be understood through that lens."