Caucasus fears war spreading

The war spilled over into Azerbaijan on Thursday, March 5, when two Iranian drones struck the Nakhchivan region, an Azerbaijani exclave bordering Turkey, Iran and Armenia. According to a statement from the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry, one drone crashed into an airport terminal, about 10 kilometers from the Iranian border, injuring four people and damaging infrastructure. The other crashed near a school in the village of Shakarabad. “These acts of aggression will not go unanswered,” the ministry said in a statement.

The incident threatened to reignite tensions between Iran and Azerbaijan. The Islamic Republic, which has a sizeable Azerbaijani minority estimated at between 20 million and 25 million people, has long viewed Azerbaijan's close ties with Israel with suspicion. Azerbaijan, a country of about 10 million people, is a convenient place to watch what is happening in neighboring Iran.

"With this strike, Iran targeted not only Azerbaijanis but also Israelis. Tehran views Azerbaijan as an Israeli proxy, although it does not say so publicly," said Tigran Yegavian, a professor of international relations at the Schiller Institute in Paris.

"After the second Karabakh war in 2020, this perception has intensified due to the greater Israeli presence in the country. For example, there is a strategic assumption about the possible military use of Fuzuli and Zangilan airports as part of the security arrangement between Israel and Azerbaijan against Iran. In addition, Israel operates radar observation stations in southern Azerbaijan, and in Baku, the capital, there is a Mossad station through which agents operating in Iran are extracted," the academic added.

Diplomatic partner

In recent years, Azerbaijan has emerged as an important diplomatic partner of both the US and Israel, to the point that it was invited to sign the Abraham Accords, which normalized Israel's relations with four Arab states. However, the country has not yet signed the agreement.

Baku has become a venue for diplomatic and security meetings. In 2025, Turkish and Syrian officials met with their Israeli counterparts there.

Tehran is particularly concerned that Azerbaijani territory could be used for Israeli attacks on Iran. “Never,” the Azerbaijani authorities insisted during the 12-day conflict in June 2025. Their position has not changed since then.

“President Ilham Aliyev certainly does not want to see his country dragged into war, and relations with Iran are somewhat less tense today than before,” said Altay Goyushov, an Azerbaijani historian and visiting researcher at the Center for International Studies CERI at Sciences Po University.

In fact, Aliyev personally visited the Iranian embassy in Baku on Tuesday to sign the book of condolences for the death of Ali Khamenei, the late Supreme Leader of Iran.

Since Thursday's incident, Azerbaijani authorities have stepped up their rhetoric. But, according to the researcher, "this is mostly a message to the domestic public to show that their leader is strong. In reality, Aliyev wants to avoid an escalation at all costs that would have catastrophic consequences for the country."

The consequences would also be negative for Iran, which could face Turkey if it attacks its neighbor again. Baku and Ankara are linked by a strong alliance and a proven military partnership, especially during the recent wars in 2020 and 2023 for control of the Nagorno-Karabakh region.

The attacks have shown how vulnerable Nakhchivan is. The territory, cut off from the rest of the country, is usually supplied by trucks from Baku via Iran.

"If this route is cut off, the residents of Nakhchivan will no longer be able to live normally. Unless Armenia allows deliveries to pass through its territory, but the existing road is small and not particularly convenient. Of course, there is an air connection between Baku and Nakhchivan, but most of the goods travel by road," Goyushov added.

Another weak point is Azerbaijan's oil fields in the Caspian Sea.

"Three large hydrocarbon fields are located very close to Iran. If they were attacked, it would be catastrophic, especially for a budget that is heavily dependent on gas and oil exports. These platforms, operated by BP, Total and other companies, do not have defense systems," the historian said.

"The war is being fought with missiles and drones. In this respect, Iran is stronger because it produces them. Azerbaijan, on the other hand, does not produce drones; it buys them from Turkey and Israel."

Mutual dependence

The relationship between Israel and Azerbaijan is based on mutual dependence.

“Azerbaijan exports an average of a third of its oil to Israel, via Turkey; Israel sells them drones and military equipment. In Azerbaijan, critical infrastructure is not protected by the Iron Dome system, but some of it is protected by a multi-layered air defense system using Israeli technology. This partnership is well-established and the Azerbaijani authorities cannot just abandon it. But dealing with Iran is something else entirely,” said Yegavian.

In recent years, however, the influence of Iran and Russia in the South Caucasus has been waning. Moscow long played the role of mediator in the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan (1988–2023). After the end of hostilities, its influence in this strategic region, at the crossroads of Europe and Asia, declined, as did that of its Iranian ally.

Recently, extremely strained relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin have led Aliyev to seek greater autonomy in his foreign policy. The same is true for Armenia, which under President Nikolay Pashinyan has also distanced itself from Russia.

This reality has led to the convergence of interests between Baku and Yerevan, which are seeking to reach a peace agreement after more than 30 years of military conflict.

The US administration is encouraging peace by offering the agreement as an incentive. According to the agreement signed at the White House on August 8, 2025 between Baku, Yerevan, and Washington, the road, along with an accompanying railway line and freight infrastructure, is supposed to connect Azerbaijan with its exclave of Nakhchivan through southern Armenia.

Called the “Trump Roadmap for Peace and International Prosperity” (TRIPP), the project would allow the US, whose companies would be granted development rights, to expand its influence in the strategically important energy region.

That ambition could disappear if the war drags on.

"That would be a shame, because the entire security architecture of the region rests on that route," said Jegavian.

The attacks on Iran are also causing concern in Armenia. According to Yegavian, "the bill will be paid, because trade with Iran is important. It is constantly growing and is approaching a billion dollars a year."

The Armenian-Iranian border, just 40 kilometers long, is an important trade corridor. Until now, many Iranian tourists have crossed the border without a visa. Yerevan is a popular destination for them to meet with relatives in exile and celebrate Nowruz, the Iranian New Year.

Now the Armenian authorities fear an influx of refugees.