North Korea learns lessons from US attack on Iran

North Korea quickly condemned the military attacks on Iran, its longtime ally in the Middle East, and analysts suggest Pyongyang will look for military and diplomatic weaknesses and tactical errors by Washington.

One of the most important lessons from the events since the first American and Israeli missiles were launched at Iran on February 28 is that retaining nuclear weapons is crucial to the survival of the regime led by Kim Jong Un.

Pyongyang can use the threat of its nuclear arsenal, combined with advances in ballistic missile technology, both as a means of pressure in negotiations and to ensure that the United States risks nuclear war if it wants to overthrow the regime.

In February, Kim declared that “North Korea’s status as a nuclear-armed state plays an important role in deterring potential threats from enemies and maintaining regional stability,” according to a statement carried by the state-run KCNA news agency.

Kim added that Pyongyang's nuclear arsenal is a "guarantee" for the regime's security. In May 2025, during a missile test, Kim also demanded that North Korea's systems be rapidly deployable, including "trigger" rapid response systems.

No more negotiations on North Korea's nuclear program

Andrei Lankov, a professor of history and international relations at Kookmin University in Seoul, said the US-Israeli attack, which quickly killed the Islamic Republic's leadership, is a lesson for North Korea that nuclear deterrence works.

"The rest of the world can say goodbye to any remaining hopes that Pyongyang will give up its nuclear weapons, because the North simply will not participate in any negotiations about anything," Lankov told DW. "The attacks on Iran are the final nail in the coffin of that idea."

A report released on March 16 by 38 North, a North Korea think tank run by the Stimson Center in Washington, outlined eight lessons that the North Korean leadership could learn from recent events in the Middle East.

At the top of the list was: "Nuclear weapons provide real protection."

"It is clear that the Iran case further reinforces Kim Jong Un's oft-stated position in recent years that he will not negotiate the relinquishment of his nuclear arsenal," the report said.

Other key lessons include the need to increase missile stockpiles and develop more drones, while also being prepared to defend key facilities from enemy drones.

The think tank, however, added that North Korea was able to develop its nuclear program by deterring the US from attacking its nuclear research facilities in 1994 thanks to Pyongyang's ability to inflict massive damage on the nearby city of Seoul with conventional artillery, potentially augmented by a significant chemical arsenal.

The threat of Iranian retaliation in response to attacks on its nuclear program has never been as extreme as Pyongyang's threat to South Korea. North Korea conducted its first nuclear test in 2006.

Close relations between North Korea and Iran

North Korea and Iran have developed close ties since the Islamic Republic came to power in the 1979 revolution, including cooperation in the development of nuclear technology and weapons. As early as the 1980s, North Korea brokered arms trade with other communist bloc countries and sold its missile systems to Tehran. It has also provided military instructors to train Iranian forces.

The ties were so close that President George W. Bush called the two countries, along with Iraq, an “axis of evil” in his 2002 State of the Union address. Both Pyongyang and Tehran continue to be labeled state sponsors of terrorism.

Last week, North Korea condemned the US-Israeli attack on Iran as "destroying the foundations of regional peace and security and fueling global instability."

The Iranian regime remains in power

The war is entering its third week, and the regime in Iran is still holding on to power despite the loss of key leadership.

The 38 North report states that another lesson for the Kim regime is the need to protect the leadership and have backup positions in case the leader is eliminated.

Still, North Korea will be encouraged by how successfully Iran has so far resisted a vastly superior military force, said Kim Sang-woo, a former politician from South Korea's New Politics Congress and now a board member of the Kim Dae-jung Peace Foundation.

"I think Pyongyang is watching the situation and will be quite pleased with the results so far," he told DW. "Iran has managed to put the US in a difficult position; they thought they would get the job done quickly, like they did in Venezuela, but now they seem to be stuck and are under pressure both domestically and internationally."

"North Korea knows it would be foolish to give up its nuclear advantage, so it is now an unattainable dream for us in the South," Kim added.