Pakistan as a bridge between Trump and Iran

Pakistan's role as a possible host of talks aimed at ending the war with Iran builds on its rapprochement with United States President Donald Trump and its reputation as a relatively neutral actor with long-standing ties to the Islamic Republic of Iran, a neighboring country, Reuters reports.

Pakistan's prime minister said yesterday he was ready to host talks between the US and Iran on ending the Gulf War, a day after Trump postponed threats to bomb Iranian energy facilities, saying the talks had been "productive".

Trump has sent mixed messages in recent days, at one point suggesting the war could soon be over and at another hinting at its escalation. On Monday, he said on social media that his administration and Iran were holding "productive talks on a complete and final end to our hostilities," although Iran has denied that talks were underway.

The gap between Trump's claims and Iran's categorical denials shows how little control either side has over the conflict - or over the narrative about it, writes the American magazine "The Atlantic", adding that the White House is trying to manage a large-scale military confrontation without a clearly defined exit strategy.

If negotiations do take place, it could boost Pakistan's global importance to a level it has not reached since it helped broker a secret diplomatic opening that led to US President Richard Nixon's visit to China in 1972.

This would complete a more than year-long process of building a relationship with Trump, which included skillful diplomacy and cryptocurrency deals, according to the British agency.

Pakistan, which maintains direct contacts with both Washington and Tehran at a time when such channels are frozen for most other countries, would also have immediate benefits from an end to the war.

The South Asian country is home to the world's second-largest Shiite Muslim population, after Iran, and has faced nationwide protests a day after US and Israeli strikes killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei at the start of the conflict on February 28.

Analysts and security officials say that among Islamabad's greatest fears is the risk of a protracted war in Iran spilling over into Pakistan. Pakistan, which is at odds with the Afghan Taliban, has also suffered fuel supply disruptions caused by the war with Iran.

"Pakistan has unusual credibility as a mediator, because it maintains functional ties with both Washington and Tehran, while its history of strained relations with both sides gives it just enough distance to be considered a credible mediator," Adam Weinstein, deputy director of the Middle East program at the Quincy Institute, told Reuters.

Building a relationship with Trump

Pakistan's chief of staff, Field Marshal Asim Munir, has built a close relationship with Trump to overcome years of mistrust. Pakistan joined Trump's Peace Council shortly after Munir traveled to Davos in January to meet with Trump.

Pakistan also struck a deal with a crypto company linked to the Trump family to use its USD1 stablecoin for cross-border payments, while White House envoy Steve Witkoff helped broker a deal to renovate New York's Roosevelt Hotel, owned by Pakistan's national airline.

Pakistan has been involved in diplomatic efforts to end the conflict with Iran from the beginning, including relaying at least half a dozen messages between the United States and Iran, five Pakistani sources confirmed to Reuters.

Before Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif confirmed the offer for talks yesterday, a Pakistani and a foreign source said officials from both countries could meet in Islamabad as early as the end of this week. The Pakistani source said US Vice President J.D. Vance, Witkoff and Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner were expected to attend.

According to official statements, over the past month, Sharif and the Pakistani foreign minister have held more than 30 talks with their Middle Eastern counterparts, including at least six with Iranian officials. Two of them took place on Monday, the same day the US announced that mediation efforts were underway, paralleling a phone call between Munir and Trump, which the White House confirmed.

"If Pakistan were to host the US-Iran talks, it would represent a significant improvement in Islamabad's strategic position," Kamran Bokhari, a senior fellow at the Council on Near East Policy in Washington, told Reuters.

"After decades of being a troubled state, Pakistan now appears to be re-emerging as an important American ally in West Asia," he added.

Ties with Tehran

Bokhari said Pakistan is Iran's least hostile neighbor, while at the same time maintaining "the closest ties with its historical regional rival Saudi Arabia and enjoying the trust of Washington."

Pakistan shares a sensitive border with Iran through its southwestern province of Balochistan, which has been the scene of an insurgency for decades. The neighbors clashed along the border in January 2024, but relations have since improved.

Iran may see Pakistan as a more neutral mediator than other options. "Unlike Gulf states like Qatar, Pakistan does not host US military bases and is a military power in its own right," Weinstein said.

Pakistan can also rely on its historical role as a mediator - Tehran's de facto diplomatic mission to the US has been located within the Pakistani embassy in Washington since the break in diplomatic relations between the US and Iran in 1979.

The mutual defense agreement between Islamabad and Riyadh, signed in September, obliges both countries to come to each other's aid, which further influences the calculations.

As the US war against Iran entered its second week and Tehran carried out attacks on Saudi Arabia, Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said he had reminded Iran of that agreement and was trying to mediate.

Security sources in Pakistan said that Islamabad is bound by the agreement, but is seeking to avoid entering into conflict through its unofficial channels of communication with Tehran.