Guardian: Saudi Arabia calls on US to step up attacks on Iran

Saudi Arabia has called on the United States (US) to step up attacks on Iran, a Saudi intelligence source confirmed, while at the same time considering a decision on whether to directly engage in the conflict, the British newspaper The Guardian reports today.

The media outlet writes that a Saudi source confirmed a report by the American newspaper The New York Times, according to which the de facto leader of the kingdom, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, urged US President Donald Trump not to end the war against Iran prematurely and that the US-Israeli campaign represents a "historic opportunity" to reshape the Middle East.

The intelligence source said Riyadh is not only seeking to continue the military campaign, but to intensify it. Trump appeared to confirm the report about the crown prince's role, telling reporters on Tuesday: "Yes, he's a warrior. He's fighting with us."

There have been no reports of active Saudi military involvement in the nearly four-week-old war, but a Saudi political analyst said the kingdom would likely take that step if Pakistan-led peace efforts fail.

"What matters now is Iran's decision. If Iran seriously engages, there is still a way to contain the escalation. If it rejects the conditions and continues the attacks, the threshold for Saudi action will be crossed," said Mohammed Alhamed, a Saudi geopolitical analyst.

Alhamed added that Saudi Arabia "does not react impulsively."

"It is weighing its response and preparing for a scenario in which escalation, if it occurs, will be deliberate and decisive," he said, adding that Riyadh "was not pushing for war."

"He was trying to avoid being drawn into it, while keeping all options on the table," he said.

Saudi Arabia has been targeted by Iranian drones as part of Tehran's response to the US-Israeli attack on February 28. One drone attack a week ago hit an oil refinery in Yanbu, on Saudi Arabia's Red Sea coast.

Saudi Arabia's ability to transport its oil exports by pipeline to the Red Sea means it is not as vulnerable as its neighbors to Iran's tactics of almost completely blocking oil tanker shipments leaving the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. The attack on Yanbu was a signal from Iran that this economic lifeline could also be at risk, according to the Guardian.

That threat would be even greater if Iran's allies in Yemen, the Houthi movement, were to enter the war with their own arsenal of missiles.

"I believe that Saudi Arabia continues to maintain a cautious neutrality in the war between Iran, Israel and the US," Saudi defense expert Hisham Alghanam told Agence France-Presse (AFP).

But he added: "If the Houthis attack Saudi interests, Riyadh could move towards supporting a defensive coalition or limited retaliation."

Saudi Arabia and Iran, which claim leadership roles in the Sunni and Shiite Islamic worlds, respectively, have long been regional rivals. According to a leaked US State Department diplomatic cable, the crown prince's uncle, King Abdullah, called on the US military in 2008 to "cut off the head of the snake," referring to the theocratic regime in Tehran.

Khalid Al Jabri, a Saudi commentator in exile, said that in recent years the kingdom has favored a negotiated solution to the standoff over Iran's nuclear and missile programs. But Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu launched a joint attack amid talks focused on curbs on the nuclear program.

"In this scenario, when war is coming anyway and escalation is already happening, a partially weakened Iran, a wounded lion, would be more unpredictable and dangerous. The policy was - don't start a war, but if you start one, finish the job," said Al Jabri, a US-based cardiologist who is the son of Saad Al Jabri, a former Saudi security chief who was the intelligence liaison to Washington until he fell out of favor with Prince Mohammed in 2015.

The crown prince has consolidated his power by cultivating a close relationship with Trump, but he will now have to reconsider Saudi Arabia's reliance on the US for its security, observers say, according to the Guardian.

"MBS (Mohammed bin Salman) has lost all his bets over the past few years. He has invested financially in Trump, the Trump family, his corporation and his White House, but in the end the views of the Saudis and the entire Gulf were overshadowed by the wishes of Benjamin Netanyahu," said Eli Geranmaye, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

Prince Mohammed began to adjust his position after a missile attack on a Saudi oil facility in 2019, which Riyadh blamed on Iran. The US, during Trump's first term as president, provided verbal support but did not carry out the retaliation the Saudis demanded.

Four years later, Saudi Arabia attempted a policy of détente by signing a surprise agreement with Iran to restore diplomatic relations, in a deal brokered by China.

"With the US refusing to come to their defense, the Saudis have turned to Iran, hoping that it will not turn on them in the event of a conflict. Now that the war has begun and MBS has lost his bet that Iran will not retaliate, he has reportedly called on the US to eliminate the Iranian threat once and for all. So Saudi Arabia now faces a dilemma about whether to get more involved," Geranmaye said.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has seen its oil exports almost completely blocked and has openly called for a decisive military defeat of Iran. The UAE's ambassador to Washington, Yousef Al Otaiba, wrote in the Wall Street Journal on Wednesday: "A simple ceasefire is not enough. We need a definitive outcome that addresses the full spectrum of Iranian threats."

Saudi Arabia, with its export potential via the Red Sea, still has nothing to lose and has not openly called for further bombing. Its active military involvement could provoke an even fiercer Iranian response aimed at its Red Sea pipeline, most likely in collaboration with the Houthis.

"When the bombs stop falling, there will be serious reflection in Riyadh. It's not about pushing the US away, it's about having more options," Geranmayer said.