As the war erodes Trump's power, new political forces emerge

This spring, the seeds of political change are being seen in America.

In the midst of tectonic events, it is often difficult to identify a tipping point. But politics never stands still - even when omnipresent presidents believe they have everything under control.

The turbulent political landscape appears to be heading toward a moment of crystallization. Will President Donald Trump continue to dominate the zeitgeist, as he has for more than a decade? Or will the forces he has unleashed—and those beyond his control—relegate him to a position of political weakness and steer the country toward a future in which he will no longer be the dominant voice?

Take one enduring indicator of Trump's political strength: his firm grip on Republicans on Capitol Hill. That is finally being tested as lawmakers express dissatisfaction with his leadership on Iran following the uproar over the Epstein dossier late last year.

A broader sense of political malaise is likely to be deepened by long lines at airports amid a Department of Homeland Security crisis sparked by his hardline immigration policies. Government shutdowns rarely benefit either party - and the impression of a country wandering aimlessly often backfires on unpopular presidents.

And while Democrats may not yet have regained the trust of voters, they are emerging from the 2024 debacle. Now it is Republicans who are watching with trepidation voters who are prone to a “get everyone out of power” wave. The cracks in the MAGA movement raise questions about its future strength, while generational tensions simmer within the Democratic Party.

Growing concerns about high food and housing prices - likely to be exacerbated by a war with Iran - are shaping a decidedly populist backdrop for the 2028 presidential election. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development estimated on Thursday that the war would push U.S. inflation above 4,0% this year, up from 2,8% forecast in December.

So much for Trump's claim that he has solved the affordability crisis. He continues to appear indifferent to the problems of many Americans, saying Thursday that the sharp rise in fuel prices "has not been nearly as severe" as he expected because of the war.

Not all events that could reshape politics are about Washington. A jury in Los Angeles this week ruled decisively against YouTube and Meta, finding that the social media giants knew their platforms posed risks to young people and were responsible for a young woman's mental health problems.

The companies plan to appeal. But the ruling could open a small crack in the power of the tech giants. It could encourage aspiring politicians to lean more heavily on parents' concerns about social media — and their more invasive artificial intelligence cousins ​​— in their campaigns.

Not every seed sprouts. But politics is changing.

Trump faces biggest political test

Trump has dominated American politics for 11 years. But after a decade or more, even epoch-making politicians in democratic societies begin to lose momentum - think of the late British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher and former German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

The US president, who turns 80 in a few months, faced the most profound challenge of his two terms in office by launching a war without gaining the country's consent and without clearly defining an objective or exit strategy.

A year ago, Trump orchestrated the most aggressive display of executive power in modern history, eroding the pillars of the liberal establishment with attacks on big law firms, Ivy League universities, and the media.

Two years later, his decline has been rapid. Three polls in the past week show his approval rating below 40%, while voter disapproval is at a dangerous 60% or higher. A CNN poll put the president at 38% approval - well below the safe level for parties in power in congressional election years.

Trump's leadership in the war often seems incoherent, evolving through a series of threats, deadlines, and "red lines."

After predicting earlier this week that a peace deal could be close and saying he wanted a deal, the president abruptly said on Thursday: "I'm the complete opposite of desperate. I don't care."

A few hours later - another twist. Trump suspended airstrikes on Iranian energy facilities, designed to force the Islamic Republic to open the Strait of Hormuz, until April 6.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth inadvertently pointed to a political danger for the president during a cabinet meeting on Thursday.

“This is history textbook material. This is a legacy issue,” he told his boss. He was right: the war will now likely define the president's second term. If he doesn't find a way to emerge from it with a clear victory soon, it will follow him down the line.

Trump's grip on Republicans is weakening

Trump’s power has long rested on his unyielding grip on the Republican Party. Recent polls show that his decision to break a promise and enter a new foreign war has not alienated his most loyal voters. But it has shattered the broad coalition that returned him to power in 2024, with independent voters in particular drifting away. A Quinnipiac University poll this month found that 68 percent of them disapprove of the president’s performance.

The impression that the president's political base is no longer so solid is further underscored by this year's Conservative Political Action Conference. Usually a raucous celebration of Trump's successes, this time the event was overshadowed by cracks within the MAGA movement that suggest it is divided not just over Israel, but also over the path to a post-Trump era.

In another sign of change, a Florida Democrat won a state House seat on Tuesday in a heavily Republican district that includes Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort. Analysts often exaggerate the significance of smaller elections, especially ones with such symbolism. But Democrats have won 30 state House seats in special and regular elections over the past year. It’s no wonder that 35 Republican lawmakers are retiring or running for office this year.

Trump is further fueling Republican anger by failing to explain the goals of the Iran war. House Armed Services Committee Chairman Mike Rogers spoke Wednesday of “frustration on both sides of the political spectrum during the latest briefings.” He said members were not given enough information about the plans for ground troops, the ultimate goal, or the expected cost of the war. Republican Congressman Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania, meanwhile, is demanding an explanation for sending additional Marines and airborne troops to the Middle East. “We don’t have clarity right now — we don’t have it — and we need to get it,” he said.

Democrats are preparing for an internal showdown

The political terrain is changing on the left as well.

Democrats are still grappling with generational and ideological turmoil that erupted after former President Joe Biden’s bid for a second term was thwarted by his advancing years. Those tensions are now coming to the fore in the congressional primaries. In Maine, for example, polls show the establishment candidate, Governor Janet Mills, trailing oyster farmer and populist progressive Graham Plattner in the Senate nomination race. The race is crucial to Democrats’ hopes of regaining control of that chamber and ultimately unseating longtime Republican Sen. Susan Collins.

The generational shift also became apparent in the Senate this month, after the Wall Street Journal reported that some Democrats were tired of the leadership of Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. The paper said that Connecticut Senator Chris Murphy said at a private dinner last month that some colleagues were already counting votes to see if there was enough support to remove the Democratic senator from New York - the last representative of the era of party leadership under former President Barack Obama and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

Murphy told CNN's Phil Mattingly on Wednesday that "Schumer has a very difficult job." But he added, "It's no secret that many of us wanted the caucus to fight harder and stick to its principles longer."

Speculation about Schumer's leadership is one of the hints of the coming political era. Even more significant are the signs that Trump will one day no longer be the central figure.

The new Washington is still a long way off. But the political trends that will shape it are already beginning to emerge.