Iran: We are ready for a showdown on land

Iran is warning the United States it is ready to counter any ground attack, accusing Washington of secretly planning a ground invasion while publicly seeking negotiations, as the war that has killed thousands and disrupted global energy supplies enters its second month.

In a message issued to mark the 30th anniversary of the start of the war, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said: “The enemy is publicly signaling negotiations, while secretly planning a ground attack.”

"Our firing continues," Ghalibaf said. "Our missiles are ready. Our determination and faith have increased." He added that Iranian forces are "waiting for the arrival of American troops on the ground to burn them and punish their regional partners forever."

Iran announced yesterday, as reported by Reuters, that it had received the US peace proposals through its mediators, following talks held on Sunday by the foreign ministers of Pakistan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. However, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Bagei said that the proposals were “unrealistic, illogical and excessive”. “Our position is clear. We are under military aggression. Therefore, all our efforts and strength are directed towards defense,” he told a press conference.

Shortly after Baghei's statements, Trump said in a social media post that the US was in talks with a "more reasonable regime" to end the war in Iran, but at the same time issued a new warning regarding the Strait of Hormuz.

"Great progress has been made, but if for any reason a deal is not made soon, which it probably will be, and if the Strait of Hormuz is not immediately 'open for business,' we will end our 'nice stay' in Iran by blowing up and totally destroying all of their power plants, oil fields, and Kharg Island," Trump wrote.

Taking control of Khargo would require ground troops, according to Reuters. The US Department of Defense is sending thousands of troops to the Middle East, giving Trump the option to launch a ground offensive, but he has not yet approved any of those plans, according to multiple media reports.

Any US ground operation would likely stop short of a full-scale invasion and instead rely on special forces incursions and conventional infantry, according to reports of possible scenario planning. However, even a limited mission could expose US troops to Iranian drones, missiles, ground fire and improvised explosive devices, writes the British Guardian.

The White House is sending contradictory signals, alternating between talking about de-escalation and threatening a wider war, the British Guardian reports. White House spokeswoman Carolyn Levitt said that the Pentagon's planning was aimed at providing Trump with "maximum flexibility in choosing options", rather than signaling a final decision. Trump said last week that he would suspend attacks on Iranian energy facilities for 10 days, or until April 6, US time.

A Pakistani security official, whose country is trying to mediate in the war, told Reuters that at this stage it seemed unlikely that there would be direct talks between the United States and Iran this week. “We are trying everything we can to make it happen as soon as possible,” the official said.

While efforts to reach a negotiated end to hostilities have been making slow progress through meetings of regional powers in Pakistan, there were signs of further escalation over the weekend, as Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis entered the conflict for the first time and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his country was expanding its invasion into southern Lebanon.

The Turkish Defense Ministry said yesterday that a ballistic missile launched from Iran entered Turkish airspace before being shot down by NATO air and missile defenses deployed in the eastern Mediterranean.

The Houthi attacks on Israel have opened up the possibility that they could target and block another important maritime route - the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

Israel’s parliament has approved the 2026 state budget, a Knesset spokesman said early on Tuesday, allowing Netanyahu’s government to avoid early elections as his country’s joint war with the United States against Iran continues. The approval of the 699 billion shekel budget, dominated by defense spending, comes a month after the start of the war, which has cost the economy about $1,6 billion a week. Failure to pass the budget would likely trigger a snap election within 90 days, which polls so far predict Netanyahu would lose. Regular elections are scheduled for late October, although a date has not yet been set. Netanyahu has said they could be held in September.

The oil market has almost completely written off the possibility of a negotiated end to the war and is "preparing for a sharp escalation of military conflict," said Vandana Hari of Vanda Insights, an oil market analyst.

The International Monetary Fund has warned that the war in the Middle East has caused serious disruption to the economies of frontline countries and worsened the outlook for many economies that have only just begun to recover from previous crises.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Besant said yesterday that the global oil market is well supplied. "Over time, the United States will regain control of the straits and freedom of navigation will be ensured, either through US escort or through multinational escort," Besant said in an interview with Fox News.

However, according to the Financial Times, Iran is working on establishing a system of approved passage for ships through the Strait of Hormuz, which Tehran has hinted could last beyond the current war.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said last week that Iran would establish a new order in the strait after the war, insisting that the country has sovereignty over it "even if some would like to view it as international waters."

Before the conflict, about 135 ships passed through the waterway daily. But since the first US-Israeli strikes on Iran, traffic has all but dried up. Between March 1 and 25, there were just 116 crossings, a 97 percent drop from the same period in February, according to S&P Global.

The ships that did pass were mostly linked to Chinese, Indian or Gulf owners. Several of them belonged to the so-called “dark fleet,” vessels sanctioned by Western powers for trading Iranian oil.

Some ships have paid Iran up to $2 million to ensure safe passage through the Gulf, according to Lloyd's List Intelligence and a person familiar with the case of a shipowner whose vessel made it through.

Alaeddin Boroujerdi, a senior member of Iran's parliament, told state television on Sunday that every vessel passing through the strategic waterway pays a fee of $2 million. "A new regime is being established in this waterway," he said.

Such claims, according to the FT, raise far-reaching questions about access to one of the world's most important shipping lanes - as well as a number of practical problems that shipping companies will have to face.