Ukraine and Iran are becoming one war

The wars in Iran and Ukraine are becoming more intertwined with each passing week - to the point that some analysts argue that the two conflicts are beginning to merge into one.

How exactly each of these wars will affect the course of the other is difficult to predict, but it is already clear that their interconnectedness is drawing more and more countries into both flashpoints, widening the arc of instability that stretches across Europe and the Middle East.

From Ukraine’s perspective, this connection is nothing new. Russia began using Iranian “Shahed” drones in September 2022, seven months after Vladimir Putin launched a full-scale invasion. What is new, however, is that Moscow is now returning the favor to Tehran, reportedly sending it intelligence, targeting data, and drones since the US-Israeli attack on February 28.

Volodymyr Zelensky's tour of the Middle East in recent weeks has cemented another cross-regional link between the two conflicts, through agreements to supply drone and anti-drone technology, as well as training, to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar, while initiating security talks on a similar basis with Jordan.

The two wars are increasingly intertwined through global energy markets. The initial effect of the attack on Iran, along with Tehran's response by closing off shipping traffic through the Persian Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz, has worked in Russia's favor as oil and gas prices surge.

For Moscow, the demand surge was an economic lifeline at a time when its economy was under increasing pressure, prompting the government to abandon plans for budget cuts.

To stabilize the market, the Donald Trump administration has eased some restrictions on Russian oil exports, which were put in place to pressure the Kremlin over the war in Ukraine. In addition, Asian countries, particularly those affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz - including Vietnam, Thailand, the Philippines, Indonesia and Sri Lanka - are now racing to buy Russian oil.

In an effort to limit Russia's windfall profits, Ukraine has stepped up attacks on Russian energy infrastructure in recent days. A Reuters estimate last week suggested that up to 40 percent of Russia's oil export capacity had been shut down after massive Ukrainian drone attacks.

The conflicts have become so intertwined that what happens on one front now has a tangible impact on the other - a point particularly highlighted by European states, worried that they could be drawn into the wider Middle East conflagration. British Defence Secretary John Healy has pointed to Putin's "hidden hand" behind Iran's drone tactics.

“These wars are very much connected,” said European Union foreign policy chief Kaia Kalas. “So if America wants the war in the Middle East to stop - if Iran wants to stop attacking them - then it should put pressure on Russia as well, so that it is not able to help them.”

The Trump administration has been reluctant to acknowledge the connection, continuing to give Moscow preferential treatment, easing sanctions and allowing a Russian oil shipment to bypass the US blockade of Cuba, even as mounting evidence of Russian aid to Iran emerged in the midst of the war.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has insisted that Russia's role in Iran does not "interfere with or affect" US operations. "The Americans do not want to link the two wars and punish Russia," said Hannah Note, director for Eurasia at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies.

There are indications that Washington is putting more pressure on Kiev for attacks on Russian oil facilities, which have kept oil prices high, than on Moscow for supplying deadly weapons to Iran to attack US and allied targets. The Financial Times reported on Wednesday that Trump threatened to cut off arms deliveries to Ukraine unless European allies help reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Speaking to reporters on Monday, Zelensky said Kiev had received “signals” from its partners to reduce attacks on Russian energy facilities. He stressed that these strikes would continue as long as Russian attacks were directed at Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.

However, Russia's deepening involvement in Iran's defense could further complicate Trump's pro-Russian course. For the Kremlin, supporting Iran represents an opportunity to restore its geopolitical position after a series of setbacks.

Burdened by the war in Ukraine, the Kremlin has been forced to largely stand by as its key allies - including Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad and Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro - have fallen.

“When it became clear that the US was failing to convert military superiority into political gain, Russia saw this as an opportunity to expose American weakness,” Note said. “It was in its interest to deal a painful blow to the Americans and prolong the war.”

Zelensky claimed that Moscow provided Iran with intelligence based on satellite imagery ahead of Iran's drone and missile attack on US aircraft and personnel at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia last Friday, which wounded 12 Americans.

Russia is also suspected of sending drones, possibly "gerans" - Moscow's improved version of the "shaheed" - in ground shipments disguised as humanitarian convoys.

Ukraine’s bloody experience with “shaheeds” and “geran” has made Zelensky a sought-after guest in Gulf capitals. He has seized the opportunity, offering to export cheap, battle-tested technologies to help overcome local arms shortages, while also presenting Ukraine’s new global role: no longer just a recipient of aid, but also a provider of it.

Kiev is not only selling interceptors, but also software, electronic warfare systems and naval drones. “We are approaching this systematically,” Zelensky said.

Russia's deepening involvement in Iran's defense could further complicate Trump's pro-Russian course. For the Kremlin, supporting Iran represents an opportunity to restore its geopolitical position after a series of setbacks.

Orisiya Lucevich, head of the Ukraine Forum at the Chatham House think tank, said Ukraine's new security network in the Gulf gives the country greater leverage in Washington - in response to Trump's frequent remark that Kiev "has no cards" in the conflict with Russia.

"Ukraine is trying to show that our cards are in having a very resilient, agile economy that adapts and produces quickly, and that can both defend itself from Russia and, through the sale of weapons systems, help defend other countries," said Lucevich.

She added that security relationships built in the Gulf could provide a valuable alternative source of much-needed funding for Ukraine's defense industry, at a time when Hungary has blocked EU funds.

“Ukraine has production capacity, but not enough investment. It can produce more, but it doesn’t have enough orders or capital,” Lucevich said. “That’s why this is proving to be a great opportunity to put those production capacities into operation.”

Interconnected regional conflicts are still a long way from escalating into a world war, said William Spaniel, associate professor of political science at the University of Pittsburgh, “but they are increasingly linking battlefield outcomes and will have longer-term consequences for how front lines are divided.”

Fiona Hill, a former Russia advisor in the first Trump administration, assessed that, if we take into account modern forms of warfare such as cyber, hybrid and other gray area operations, the world war has actually been going on for some time - and that the conflict with Iran has further inflamed it.

“I think it’s already reaching the threshold of a system-changing war,” said Hill, who now works at the Brookings Institution. “There will be all sorts of new configurations of states.”

She pointed to the unpredictable impact of oil and fertilizer shortages on global stability, which gives a whole range of other countries motives to get involved in the Middle East, as well as the question of whether China could take advantage of Washington's preoccupation to take action against Taiwan.

"It's like all four horsemen of the apocalypse have gathered here... and it seems to me that people are rushing into it like sleepwalkers."

The analysis was published in The Guardian.

Prepared by: A. Š.