Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Finnish President Alexander Stubbs were born three years and 4.000 miles apart. But the upheaval that Donald Trump caused in the rules-based order in 2026 has brought them together as intellectual leaders of a new counter-movement that offers a way for centrist liberals to weather the storm.
They are increasingly aligned on the world stage - quoting each other in speeches and sharing views on the frayed global order and how smaller countries can better cooperate on defense and market power. They communicate regularly privately by phone and text.
Last month, when they found themselves in London at the same time, Carney and Stubb exchanged messages and arranged to run together in Hyde Park, to the surprise of their entourage.
"We talk and text quite often," Stubb, a triathlete, told Politiko in Helsinki a few days later. "We write to each other, we try to see what's going on in the world, so it's that kind of friendship. And then we can go for a run every now and then, which is nice."
"I'm not really going to participate in triathlons with President Stubb, that would be quite awkward from my perspective," Karn said, responding to a question from Politika about their friendship as Stubb arrived in Ottawa for talks. "He's an extraordinary person with many talents."
Carney also said he appreciated the "deep relationship" and "alignment" between the two on "a wide range of issues." Together, he added, the two countries are confronting "disruption in the international system to build a better system that works for the citizens of Canada, Finland and the world."
Today, both Canadians and Finns face hostile and unpredictable neighbors, which elevates the role of diplomacy to an existential level.
The superpower south of Carney ominously jokes about wanting to annex Canada as its 51st federal state and has engaged in an economically damaging war in the Middle East.
Finland's neighbor to the east has been waging an aggressive war against Ukraine for four years, threatening the waters of the Baltic Sea and carrying out hybrid attacks across Europe.
Stubb, a 58-year-old Liberal Conservative who has a son and a daughter, and Carney (61), leader of the Liberal Party of Canada and father of four daughters, found themselves in power at an extremely dangerous time for the world.
A Politika source who saw Stubb and Karni together said that there is clearly "very good chemistry" between them. "They share a way of thinking and values, of course, but both also have an operational approach focused on finding solutions," the Brussels portal's source said.
This week, Stubb was in Ottawa, where the two leaders discussed the state of the world during meetings and a private working dinner, including ways to end the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, as well as the impact of Trump's tumultuous second term.
As transatlantic relations sink deeper into crisis, the future of what was once called the liberal world order could depend on the ideas these two centrist fathers exchange with each other.
Confronting Trump
Stubb and Carney both love hockey. Stubb even watched football on television with another centrist leader, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, during that same stay in London.
Like Starmer, both Carney and Stubb are intellectually oriented and thoughtful, and have achieved significant success outside of politics - Carney as a central banker, and Stubb in diplomacy and academia, as well as in high-level amateur sport.
"I have a lot of respect for Marko - I think he's one of the intellectually sharpest world leaders we have right now," Stub told Politiko. "We have quite similar backgrounds, with him being an economist and me being a lover of international relations. We both have doctorates in our fields and we share a love of ice hockey. Canada and Finland have always had similar views, so I was lucky to develop a good relationship with Marko."
But when it comes to Trump, the two have different experiences.
Carney came to power in 2025 promising to stand up to Trump and fight for Canadian sovereignty in the face of his territorial and economic threats. Stubb, on the other hand, found himself labeled Europe's "Trump whisperer" after meeting the US president at his golf course in Florida and since then solidifying his relationship through phone calls, messages and meetings.
Despite his country's relatively small population of 5,6 million, Stubb wields disproportionate influence in Washington, though he says he has heard from Trump less frequently since the war in the Middle East broke out.
For now, 2026 is marked by Trump's geopolitical upheavals - from Venezuela to Greenland, through relations with Europe, and all the way to the war in Iran.
It was also the year in which Carney and Stubb emerged as intellectual leaders seeking a possible path for the Allies to survive in a dangerous new era of great-power politics.
At the World Economic Forum in Davos in January, Carney gave a speech that shook prime ministers and CEOs and forced them to confront Trump's profound shake-up of the world order.
"Stop invoking the rules-based international order as if it still works as intended," Carney said. "Let's call it by its rightful name: a system of increasingly intense great-power rivalry, in which the most powerful pursue their own interests, using economic integration as a tool of pressure."
Carney referred to Stubb when it came to the solution: "Our new approach rests on what Finnish President Aleksander Stubb called 'values-based realism.'"
A week earlier, Stub published his new book on international relations, "The Triangle of Power: Rebalancing the New World Order."
In it, he laid out the idea of "values-based realism" as a tool for navigating the current turmoil. "The path to a more stable future begins with seeing the world as it is," Stubb wrote. "And defining a way to preserve our liberal values while engaging humbly and respectfully with those who do not share them."
Carney was direct in his conclusion at Davos: "We know that the old order will not return. We should not mourn it. Nostalgia is not a strategy."
Like Stubb, Carney offered a more optimistic direction — building something “fairer” where there once was the illusion of a rules-based order. “That is the task of the middle powers, the states that have the most to lose in a world of fortifications and the most to gain from real cooperation,” he said. “The powerful have their power. But we have something too — the ability to stop pretending, to name the reality, to build strength at home, and to act together.”
The two leaders share the same stance, but differ in style. While Carney's speech can take on passionate tones, Stub prides himself on the calm and collected nature of the Finns. Yet both are convinced that the way forward for countries like theirs is cooperation.
What might this middle-power cooperation look like? And could it ever be enough to replace American leadership in NATO and other key alliances?
In short: lots of pragmatic partnerships.
The Centrist "Fathers" Club
When it comes to NATO, of which Finland and Canada are also members, Stub clearly sends a message that European countries must and want to join forces to ensure the security of Europe within the alliance, regardless of whether America withdraws.
Finnish leaders do not want to undermine the credibility of NATO, which they only recently joined, partly because they are a frontline country towards Moscow, faced with constant Russian hostile rhetoric towards Europe, with a border of about 1.300 kilometers with Russia.
In Helsinki last month, Stub hosted Starmer and a group of other northern European leaders for a day of defense talks. Among them was Rob Jeten, the new liberal prime minister of the Netherlands, to whom Stub presented a birthday cake. And via a transatlantic link, of course, Carney joined in, and, according to one official present at the meeting, “was fully engaged in the discussions.”
The group, known as the Joint Expeditionary Force, aims to act as Europe's rapid military option to support NATO, although there are hints that its role could be expanded.
Although Canada is unlikely to become a full member of the JEF, it is possible that it will formalize its cooperation with the group.
There's also the European Union. During a run together in a park in London, Stubb suggested to Carney that he consider Canada joining the EU - an idea that resurfaces from time to time and seems to have the support of nearly half of Canadians.
Carney has said that full EU membership is unlikely, although he wants deeper trade and security ties with the bloc. And Stub supports that, just as he wants the UK to reverse Brexit and return, as he says, to its rightful place within the EU.
Amid a tariff war with the United States, Canada is showing what diversifying alliances means in practice. It already has a trade agreement with the EU, although it has not yet been ratified by all 27 members. But this year alone, Carney has brokered a major trade deal with China, as well as a series of new broad deals with India, including a 10-year nuclear energy agreement.
Endurance test
Of course, there are clear limitations. Canada and Finland are medium-sized and small countries, not superpowers, either economically or militarily. Their shared values are obvious, but so is the "realism" of their size.
For those struggling to find hope amid global upheaval, Stubb advises staying calm and behaving like the Finns: "Take an ice bath, go to the sauna, and think," as he puts it in the introduction to his book. He is an endurance athlete and often highlights the Finnish concept of resilience, or perseverance, using a word that has no direct English translation: "sisu."
Faced with Trump's threats, Carney this month described how millions of small individual acts of solidarity — like buying Canadian wine instead of imported from California or vacationing in Canada instead of Florida — are renewing his country's strength. "Together, they send a message," Carney said. "We control our own destiny."
If geography is destiny, the deepening friendship between Carney and Stubbs may also have something to do with a sense of place. Their hometowns, Fort Smith and Helsinki, are located at the same latitude: 60 degrees north.
Residents of both places must endure months of bitter cold, with winter temperatures dipping below minus 20 degrees Celsius. And there is hardly a more "Finnish" spirit anywhere in North America than the motto of Carney's hometown, a single word: "Perseverance."
Translation: NB
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